Late Christmas Day or early Tuesday, Ukrainian air force bombers struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet landing ship 'Novocherkassk' in Feodosia in southeastern Crimea.
Russia doesn’t have anywhere near “orders of magnitude” more fighting men. That’s 100 times more at minimum. Russia’s population is about four times that of Ukraine, and their demographic pyramids are similar.
Russia’s actual limitations are not in the raw numbers of people, though. It’s in public support. Russia doesn’t have the base of domestic support that Ukraine naturally has by defending against an invader.
Russia is also absolutely not unbeatable. It has lost plenty of wars. 1st Chechen war, Afghanistan, World War One, Crimea.
There are over 143 million Russians and only 38 million Ukrainians. With similar demographics my point still stands Ukraine needs at least a 5 to 1 ratio or higher to bleed Russia dry of fighting age men.
I agree with you on support, but Russian society can absorb horrific losses before there is any danger of revolution. Perhaps the one thing that Putin is very good at is managing his rivals and keeping the oligarchy in line. He knows he has to win to keep them in line and will do so at any cost to Russia.
You mentioned the first Chechen war but not the second one. How did that war turn out?
WWI saw huge losses of over a million men. While Russian losses are high they are nowhere near that number today.
The Crimean war saw Russia take strategic losses while in direct conflict with the largest powers of that time. The loss of Crimea itself would be a strategic loss but nothing Ukraine can realistically do beyond that is at the same level. Nor is Ukraine a major power.
I’d agree with you on Afghanistan. It is probably the closest analog to Ukraine. The position of the Soviet Union was economically unviable and they were forced to pull out shortly before the USSR dissolved. Russia’s current economy is in the same position. But Afghanistan was a ten year war. Can Ukraine hold on long enough with Western support to push modern Russia over that same edge? I don’t think it would take ten years to destabilize Russia, but I don’t know that Ukraine can keep this fight up or keep Western powers involved long enough for that to happen.
Russia doesn’t have anywhere near “orders of magnitude” more fighting men. That’s 100 times more at minimum. Russia’s population is about four times that of Ukraine, and their demographic pyramids are similar.
Russia’s actual limitations are not in the raw numbers of people, though. It’s in public support. Russia doesn’t have the base of domestic support that Ukraine naturally has by defending against an invader.
Russia is also absolutely not unbeatable. It has lost plenty of wars. 1st Chechen war, Afghanistan, World War One, Crimea.
There are over 143 million Russians and only 38 million Ukrainians. With similar demographics my point still stands Ukraine needs at least a 5 to 1 ratio or higher to bleed Russia dry of fighting age men.
I agree with you on support, but Russian society can absorb horrific losses before there is any danger of revolution. Perhaps the one thing that Putin is very good at is managing his rivals and keeping the oligarchy in line. He knows he has to win to keep them in line and will do so at any cost to Russia.
You mentioned the first Chechen war but not the second one. How did that war turn out?
WWI saw huge losses of over a million men. While Russian losses are high they are nowhere near that number today.
The Crimean war saw Russia take strategic losses while in direct conflict with the largest powers of that time. The loss of Crimea itself would be a strategic loss but nothing Ukraine can realistically do beyond that is at the same level. Nor is Ukraine a major power.
I’d agree with you on Afghanistan. It is probably the closest analog to Ukraine. The position of the Soviet Union was economically unviable and they were forced to pull out shortly before the USSR dissolved. Russia’s current economy is in the same position. But Afghanistan was a ten year war. Can Ukraine hold on long enough with Western support to push modern Russia over that same edge? I don’t think it would take ten years to destabilize Russia, but I don’t know that Ukraine can keep this fight up or keep Western powers involved long enough for that to happen.
Which is far from happening because for now, the average Russian (not Moscow) has seen its life improved by the money provided by the military enrollments. See this point of view from a Russian historian/independent journalist https://www.newsdirectory3.com/the-majority-of-russians-have-never-had-it-so-good/.
Well 100x is two orders of magnitude, so, it was technically correct.