No one seems to know for sure what Trump means by “make a deal”, but it’s reasonable to assume he wants the government to effective end itself and hand over the country to the US. Cuba survived the Special Period with conceding, I believe they will get through this, too.

https://hexbear.net/comment/6819077

I really, really hope I’m wrong. But the problem is there isn’t really anything that Cuba can concede economically. So we have to assume Trump means political concessions, i.e. the government stepping down and accept direct rule from DC. I can’t see what else Trump could be demanding.

I’ll make a post about it, but the saving grace for Cuba might just be that they’ve been backed so far into the corner, giving up their sovereignty would be way worse than current conditions. The US will punish them hard for decades of insolence. Think like Russia in the 90s. Gusanos in Miami will be kicking out current residents as they take back “their” property. There will be an upper strata that might do ok but most Cubans will be way worse off if they capitulate to the US. I think most Cubans know this and will tell Trump to pound sand (and I don’t think the US is gonna do anything militarily against Cuba).

Anything in particular?

With Trump stating that shipments of oil from Venezuela to China will be allowed, coupled with the threats on Mexico, I am becoming increasingly worried that the primary target of all of this is Cuba and to force the government there to collapse by destroying their economy (no oil).

I don’t think this is Trump’s plan, this is all Rubio.

It seems like regarding Venezuela, the US’ plan is less about controlling production and more about distribution. No reason to think they will allow VZ to ship oil to Cuba.

As many here have pointed out, attacking Mexico doesn’t make sense. However, I think the plan is to scare Mexico into allowing the US to have a say in who Mexico is allowed to trade with. And Mexico ships a not insignificant amount of oil to Cuba. This would seemingly align with Sheinbaum’s odd statement about how they have not increased oil shipments to Cuba recently, trying to avoid the attention of the US.

If the US can cut off oil shipments from Mexico and Venezuela to Cuba, I don’t know how Cuba will get critical oil supplies delivered.

Beyond Cuba, it seems to me the US is looking to control trade flows for the entire western hemisphere. The idea is to not only increase the exploitation the US imposes, but to control those trade relationships between Latin America and the rest of the world, to serve the US’ purposes.

I am not someone who is prone to geopolitical pessimism; and I know the commitment to the revolution the Cuban people hold in their hearts… but I am really worried for Cuba right now.

We are witnessing levels of hubris not seen in 25 years, maybe more. This administration feels totally bulletproof right now. I’m sure they think the sanctions won’t even hit, that Russia will simply capitulate before they go into effect.

Comparisons to the Third Reich seem cliche, but idk it really feels like something clicked in the last week in the halls of power in DC. They realized that they can pretty much do whatever the fuck they want to, and (for now) no one will stop them. It’s like we’re seeing the beginnings of a geopolitical blitzkreig.

I wonder if the “spheres of influence” was all more unspoken understanding and Russia and China responding to what they saw the US doing.

I think Trump and Rubio are driving most of this, for different reasons. Trump is absolutely high as a kite on what he sees as a hugely successful operation in VZ + it being clear to him he can just take Greenland whenever he wants, and the Europeans (and rest of the world) will do nothing. He might have been thinking in terms of spheres of influence a week ago, but his ego has gotten such a huge hit of narcissistic supply he might be going back on that. He is feeling goddamn invincible right now.

And Rubio, who I think is the real puppet master behind all this, sees his goals are all within his grasp. He can cut off Cuba’s supply of oil and hurt them bad. I think he cares about Latam first and foremost but maybe he’s also feeling a bit of that invincibility. He’s always been a China hawk even if it’s secondary to him after Cuba and Venezuela. Idk I do think he’s ideologically committed to anti-communism, he might relish the opportunity to try and really hurt China.

Of course all it takes is for China to go back and stop rare earth exports and we might see a lot of all this get reversed.

American Evangelical Christian is, at it’s core, a product of settler colonialism and white supremacy. Everything else is downstream from that.

Take the religion of Israeli settlers in the West Bank, let it stew for a couple centuries, and you’d have basically the same thing.

I’m referring to American liberals, who based on what I have seen so far are in no way praising this and instead seem mad.

I have yet to see anyone of any political affiliation actually defend this. Libs are mad and MAGA is being quiet as church mice.

There is a theory out there that Cuba is the ultimate target here (cutting off Cuba from Venezuela economically). I’m not sure I believe that if we’re talking overall strategy but I can see that as Rubio’s personal mission, though.

fwiw I see the opposite IRL and online. The libs might only hate it because it’s Trump but that’s at least something. And Trump supporters I see are largely staying silent.

Inshallah to all of this, comrade.

Just what I was looking for, gracias comrade o7

Venezuelans hate her so much even Maduro’s opposition in the country have been distancing themselves from her

A somewhat optimistic summary, as I see it:

Trump thinks he has his “prize” in Maduro and pulls back on further military aggression. The Bolivarian Revolution is largely left intact and now has even greater support from the people. Maduro becomes the martyr but if his capture helps preserve the Revolution, then I think that’s a trade he would make. The work of the Revolution continues. Unfortunately, even in the most optimistic scenario I don’t see the US totally walking away. Likely a blockade on the oil will remain until Venezuela hands it over; which they won’t do so the people will end up suffering. I suppose this aspect could be mitigated if international condemnation becomes too great that the US can’t reasonably maintain it all, but this seems overly optimistic.

Now a bit more pessimistic scenario:

Right-wing elements inside VZ are emboldened and start taking action, creating a very messy if not fully destabilized situation. The US puts VZ on a Cuba-style blockade that causes immense suffering, which only further destabilizes things. I can’t see any scenario where the people of Venezuela give up their oil, even in the face of a blockade. But the conditions inside the country become so much worse.

Either way, it’s morning where I’m at and I know I’ll be spending today arguing with people IRL and online about all this. Time to brush up on my Maduro talking points.

I can’t recall where I heard it suggested, but it’s certainly possible that weakening Cuba is at least a strong secondary goal. They’re in a tough spot already, and losing a major trade partner in Venezuela would make things even tougher.

I’m not sure this is a primary goal overall, but I could absolutely see this as Rubio’s personal objective that he just keeps to himself about.

I think it says something that the people of Argentina are in such dire straits, and yet they did not support the opposition in sufficient numbers in the most recent election. I am not blaming the people, but pointing out that the opposition (which my understanding - from this website, largely - is Peronist-ish?) themselves, like the Democrats in the US, Labour in the UK, Greens/SPD in Germany, etc etc) is so firmly entrenched in neoliberalism and refuses to offer real solutions, that the people in Argentina and across the globe rightly do not trust them to help get them out of the situation neoliberalism itself has put them in. It’s opportunity for us (socialists), but we have a very long row to hoe.

Is the “sanctioned” part of the sanctioned oil tankers relevant? Are there tankers that are unsanctioned, and can they deliver oil?

Any tips for helping a kid first learn how to ride a bike after taking off training wheels? I think my oldest is ready but I’m not sure.

The kids have been watching Once Upon A Hamster recently. It’s a Canadian show from the 90s but we watch it on Amazon’s streaming service. It is just about the cutest, coziest show I’ve ever seen, highly recommend.

I feel like I have good diversity of people in my social circle, though leaning towards more educated. I do not know anyone else IRL who regularly reads even one book per year that isn’t the Bible or some Prayer of Jabez type book their church group is reading together.