For once, this title actually understates the issue here. We have only been collecting data on this for 40 years. This is the first time on record that the annual upwelling event has failed to occur. It is likely due to climate change reducing the strength of the trade winds. This is indicative of much larger, global impacts from weakened trade winds.
I doubt that anyone can really say what the broader impacts will be. I suspect that there are other regions experiencing similar disruptions. This will likely impact everything to local climate to migration patterns of sea life in many locations.
It is likely due to climate change reducing the strength of the trade winds. This is indicative of much larger, global impacts from weakened trade winds.
Well, Panama is located within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and wind speeds within the ITCZ are relatively weak.
There are many factors involved here, one of them is that Panama is located within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and wind speeds within the ITCZ are relatively weak.
And I agree with what others have said, we don’t have enough data.
Not enough data to know the cause, sure, but enough data to know that it isn’t happening.
Can you please explain why the ictz zone is an important distinction in this particular case? It appears to me as a layperson that a natural phenomenon has not occurred for the first time on record, but you point out the ICTZ zone as if it reduces the significance of the event.
The article refers to a journal within the article, but this is not mentioned in the article.
However, we need further research.
Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024–2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Nevertheless, the consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling’s cooling.
I was not familiar with the technical term, but have heard the term ‘doldrums’. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intertropical_Convergence_Zone
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ /ɪtʃ/ ITCH, or ICZ),[1] known by sailors as the doldrums[2] or the calms because of its monotonous windless weather, is the area where the northeast and the southeast trade winds converge. It encircles Earth near the thermal equator, though its specific position varies seasonally. When it lies near the geographic equator, it is called the near-equatorial trough. Where the ITCZ is drawn into and merges with a monsoonal circulation, it is sometimes referred to as a monsoon trough (a usage that is more common in Australia and parts of Asia). a
Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025 Abstract The Gulf of Panama’s (GOP) seasonal upwelling system has consistently delivered cool, nutrient-rich waters via northerly trade winds every January–April for at least 40 y. Here, we document the failure of this normally highly predictable phenomenon in 2025. Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024–2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Nevertheless, the consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling’s cooling. This event underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems, which remain poorly monitored and studied despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies.
I was not familiar with the technical term, but have heard the term ‘doldrums’. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intertropical_Convergence_Zone
Just like me, the first time I heard about the ITCZ was when the Sahara Desert was flooded last year. And that was because of the ITCZ shift.
Heavy rains soak Sahara Desert as northward ITCZ shift alters African weather patterns
I recall that happening, but not the details. I wonder how this will affect the Great Green Wall (https://grandemurailleverte.org/); seems like it should help.
Well this could help the Sahel countries, as they do not have the funds to continue the project. Of course, we do not know for sure whether the Sahara Desert or the Arabian Desert will become greener in the long term.
You may also be interested in this
With increasing anthropomorphization of “climate”, few know that just 5,000 years ago, the massive desert extending from North Africa, through the Middle East and across Asia to the Gobi Desert in China was lush and a highly hydrated landscape. Even fewer know that the average temperature of the Earth in this era was significantly warmer than today.
Figure 2 – Illustration showing the planetary reorganization of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as the Earth transitions from the Holocene Thermal Maximum to the current neoglacial phase.
From Lush Sahara to Gobi Sands: Unraveling the Holocene’s Neoglacial Rollercoaster
I was just curious to find out about this after watching the NHK program “Silk Road” and it turns out there is also a Great Green Wall project in China.
and in Figure 2, the Gobi Desert is located within the ITCZ.
