I’m not arguing that coal use isn’t growing. Rather, I’m saying that the assumptions researchers made when making the RCPs, about the availability of coal and the rate at which its use would increase, do not line up with what actually happened. As well, the price of renewables has dropped faster than was previously expected. So I’m just saying we shouldn’t base our understanding of where we are and where we’re headed on outdated and flawed models.
Yeah, it can get messy, depending on which data source you’re looking at, or if one article pulls from multiple different data sources. But I agree, any increase in coal use is a bad thing, and certainly no one should be building new coal plants, and we should be retiring existing coal plants ahead of schedule.
Seeing the recent news that renewables has overtaken coal for global energy supply makes me happy, but there’s still so much work that needs to be done.
I’m not arguing that coal use isn’t growing. Rather, I’m saying that the assumptions researchers made when making the RCPs, about the availability of coal and the rate at which its use would increase, do not line up with what actually happened. As well, the price of renewables has dropped faster than was previously expected. So I’m just saying we shouldn’t base our understanding of where we are and where we’re headed on outdated and flawed models.
This article is a few years old, but it gets into the weeds about RCP 8.5, if you’re interested: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario/
Good post. But it’s a little nerve racking when it says “Global coal use is down from it’s peak in 2014”, but also this..
A bit of rose coloured glasses.
But I conceed the point, RCP 6.5 is the more likely candidate. I don’t feel any better about it.
Yeah, it can get messy, depending on which data source you’re looking at, or if one article pulls from multiple different data sources. But I agree, any increase in coal use is a bad thing, and certainly no one should be building new coal plants, and we should be retiring existing coal plants ahead of schedule.
Seeing the recent news that renewables has overtaken coal for global energy supply makes me happy, but there’s still so much work that needs to be done.