Leah Fahy, an economist at the London-based research firm Capital Economics, expects deflation to persist through at least the end of 2026. She told me that in the absence of structural reforms, “it looks pretty likely that supply will continue to outpace demand.” The risk is that China tumbles into a long-term deflationary spiral that saps growth, much like the one that contributed to Japan’s “lost decades,” starting in the 1990s. To avoid that fate, policy makers need to reform China’s economy to encourage more consumption than investment and let market forces cull bloated industries.

embrace xiaohongshu thought

But China’s leaders do not seem ready to pursue these changes. Instead, the Communist Party’s latest five-year plan, a draft of which was drawn up at a party conference in October, seems to promise yet more state-led investment in manufacturing and technology, ensuring the supply glut may well persist for years to come.

wait I thought they were talking about encouraging domestic consumption as a main point of the plan

ohhh this economist is just ideologically against state subsidies for core industries lmao