I’m not certain I understand the intent of the question but yes, totally!
I haven’t told this story before but the first week I moved here I had a moment of panic. I moved to Germany with my best friend and roommate. We rented bikes to get around town and we were heading to a grocery store a ways away. We went through an industrial part of town, like warehouses and vans and workshops. Somehow we got split up, I think she took a right when I went straight, and I couldn’t find her.
I rode the path google maps suggested for a bit longer, couldn’t see her on the horizon, turned around and rode backwards the way we came, couldn’t find her, called her, didn’t answer. And in that moment I had a serious “Taken” panic. I knew Germany was incredibly safe, I’d traveled the world already, but having just moved there and feeling vulnerable, I reimagined the industrial area as scummy. What was a plumbers can was now something to kidnap people in, the graffiti on the walls which I don’t mind turned into a warning signs about this place, I absolutely thought she had been kidnapped and I was going to have to explain to her parents that I lost her somewhere in a medium sized town in Germany.
So I decided to fall back on planning, if you lost your parents, be predictable, go to where they’d expect you to be. So I rode on the parrelel street over (cause I’d already covered the main street), and biked to our destination. Sure enough, she was waiting at the intersection right before the grocery store, happy as a dog on a walk. She had taken the parrelel rode after her turn all the way and didn’t think about me or getting lost or nothing. Didn’t check her phone, was just totally in the moment (that little shit).
And the moment I saw her, I realized what had happened emotionally to me. How American movies like “Taken” had primed me for terror, how vulnerable I felt, how not worried she was in any given moment (even if she was far more fearful than I in the big picture concepts), and how despite having traveled extensively I was ready and able to believe the worst if I suffered a personal experience irrespective of the data.
I’ve lived here for nearly 3 years now. Haven’t had any scares like that since. A couple of city experiences that can make you feel unsafe, but nothing that made me forget and disown the data or my rational self. If I hadn’t looked up the data, if I hadn’t been rational, left leaning, etc I have no doubt that would have been a scarring moment despite it turning out fine. That’s why I recommend everyone look at the data and challenge their fears with real world observations.
The problem is that the crime rate is measured by suspects, so if it is not a clear switch like in your case, it doesn’t help to know that the crime rate has fallen.
You also hadn’t developed general fears despite a lowering crime rate. You reacted with your unaltered fear level. It’s related but not the same.
I swear to God, I’m trying to understand what you mean but I’m not getting your point. What are you trying to say? What is the message you’re trying to convey?
I cannot make your statements relevant to the conversation and it sounds like you’re trying to make a point against crime data being powerful or correct so I’d like to understand your intent.
I would highly recommend everyone look up their statistical crime rates and realize how much safer the world is. That alone should quell a meaningful chunk of immigration fears imo, if the fears are rational and honest.
That doesn’t work. There are regularly messages to the population along those lines but they don’t convince because they are slightly missleading. Then the next arguments are that people don’t change because they are racist. That ends the discussion. However, the numbers have to be made solid first. This doesn’t happen for years which seems intentional to me.
E.g. the main number is number of suspects. Nobody takes it serious, especially about foreigners, because the police could be racist, and screen more foreigners. Maybe many were innocent and not convicted? But then, why not change the number?
I just explained how it worked for me - which means it works for some percentage of the population. I don’t what media you’re looking at but the overwhelming majority is fear exasperating, it’s telling everyone all the time to be afraid - not that we’re in the most peaceful era of existence.
I don’t know what you mean by the data is misleading, you’d have to provide a specific example, because nearly every crime statistic shows Germany as incredibly peaceful and nearly ever crime statistic cannot be “slightly misleading”. For instance the number of homicides in Germany in 2023 is 0.9 per 100,000. Compare that to the US which is 5.8 per 100,000, a literal 6x value, and anyone can see that Germany is 6 times safer than the US in this one category. As someone from the US that’s powerful, because I lived fine in the US and now I’m even more safe. That statistic isn’t slightly misleading imo. You could argue some number of homicides are going unreported or that the population numbers are way off - but you’d have to show that as a cause for only one side of the equation, something I don’t believe you can.
I don’t fundamentally understand your second paragraph, what do you mean “the main number is number of suspects”? The number I provided is not suspects, it’s actually homicides, for example.
So I think you’re wrong about:
data not being effective at helping people fight their biases
that the media is conveying a peaceful or accurate message consistently
that the crime statistics, all of them, are “slightly misleading”
The people in place X should compare themselves to people in place X, first and foremost. Germany has almost never been safer than it is today, with all of the immigrants, with all of the fear, with all of the psyops, it’s an incredibly safe place to live by global standards and by German standards.
That’s my point. The data shows it, living in Germany shows it, and I think this is true for most places on earth.
So you’re correct in saying the crime rate went up in 2023, but saying it’s a 15 year high is misleading, including comparing it to 1993 because there’s a difference in population.
Looking at macrotrends.net the crime rate per 100k in 1993 was 1.67. The data here only goes up to 2021 but it’s 0.83. Even going back a few years to the highest peak, 2016 that’s still 1.17. So based on this data Germany was 1.5-2x more dangerous in 1993 than it was in 2021. There’s just more people living here than there ever has been. Like even if you take the 214k number and look back for the last time it was that high, it was 2007. The population hasn’t grown that much but the demographics surely have changed, and it’s now as bad as it was in 2007.
Now I didn’t live in Germany in 2007, but I’d bet I’d struggle to find someone who honestly believed 2003-2010 (when the # of reports was above 200k) was a dangerous period in Germany. Like it’s all just the news cycle mate, they get to slap a big 8% on the year over year change and they get to run that for a couple of weeks throughout the year. In reality, it’s not the migrants or the cannibis laws I saw one article suggest, it’s the fact that wealth inequality has continued to worsen not just in Germany but globally and that will cost us (and everyone) something fierce.
We’re seeing it in the US, we saw it in Germany last century, and we are marching onward to more inequality with the CDU and Merz leading the way.
I’m not certain I understand the intent of the question but yes, totally!
I haven’t told this story before but the first week I moved here I had a moment of panic. I moved to Germany with my best friend and roommate. We rented bikes to get around town and we were heading to a grocery store a ways away. We went through an industrial part of town, like warehouses and vans and workshops. Somehow we got split up, I think she took a right when I went straight, and I couldn’t find her.
I rode the path google maps suggested for a bit longer, couldn’t see her on the horizon, turned around and rode backwards the way we came, couldn’t find her, called her, didn’t answer. And in that moment I had a serious “Taken” panic. I knew Germany was incredibly safe, I’d traveled the world already, but having just moved there and feeling vulnerable, I reimagined the industrial area as scummy. What was a plumbers can was now something to kidnap people in, the graffiti on the walls which I don’t mind turned into a warning signs about this place, I absolutely thought she had been kidnapped and I was going to have to explain to her parents that I lost her somewhere in a medium sized town in Germany.
So I decided to fall back on planning, if you lost your parents, be predictable, go to where they’d expect you to be. So I rode on the parrelel street over (cause I’d already covered the main street), and biked to our destination. Sure enough, she was waiting at the intersection right before the grocery store, happy as a dog on a walk. She had taken the parrelel rode after her turn all the way and didn’t think about me or getting lost or nothing. Didn’t check her phone, was just totally in the moment (that little shit).
And the moment I saw her, I realized what had happened emotionally to me. How American movies like “Taken” had primed me for terror, how vulnerable I felt, how not worried she was in any given moment (even if she was far more fearful than I in the big picture concepts), and how despite having traveled extensively I was ready and able to believe the worst if I suffered a personal experience irrespective of the data.
I’ve lived here for nearly 3 years now. Haven’t had any scares like that since. A couple of city experiences that can make you feel unsafe, but nothing that made me forget and disown the data or my rational self. If I hadn’t looked up the data, if I hadn’t been rational, left leaning, etc I have no doubt that would have been a scarring moment despite it turning out fine. That’s why I recommend everyone look at the data and challenge their fears with real world observations.
That’s an encouraging anecdote.
The problem is that the crime rate is measured by suspects, so if it is not a clear switch like in your case, it doesn’t help to know that the crime rate has fallen.
You also hadn’t developed general fears despite a lowering crime rate. You reacted with your unaltered fear level. It’s related but not the same.
I swear to God, I’m trying to understand what you mean but I’m not getting your point. What are you trying to say? What is the message you’re trying to convey?
I cannot make your statements relevant to the conversation and it sounds like you’re trying to make a point against crime data being powerful or correct so I’d like to understand your intent.
That doesn’t work. There are regularly messages to the population along those lines but they don’t convince because they are slightly missleading. Then the next arguments are that people don’t change because they are racist. That ends the discussion. However, the numbers have to be made solid first. This doesn’t happen for years which seems intentional to me.
E.g. the main number is number of suspects. Nobody takes it serious, especially about foreigners, because the police could be racist, and screen more foreigners. Maybe many were innocent and not convicted? But then, why not change the number?
I just explained how it worked for me - which means it works for some percentage of the population. I don’t what media you’re looking at but the overwhelming majority is fear exasperating, it’s telling everyone all the time to be afraid - not that we’re in the most peaceful era of existence.
I don’t know what you mean by the data is misleading, you’d have to provide a specific example, because nearly every crime statistic shows Germany as incredibly peaceful and nearly ever crime statistic cannot be “slightly misleading”. For instance the number of homicides in Germany in 2023 is 0.9 per 100,000. Compare that to the US which is 5.8 per 100,000, a literal 6x value, and anyone can see that Germany is 6 times safer than the US in this one category. As someone from the US that’s powerful, because I lived fine in the US and now I’m even more safe. That statistic isn’t slightly misleading imo. You could argue some number of homicides are going unreported or that the population numbers are way off - but you’d have to show that as a cause for only one side of the equation, something I don’t believe you can.
I don’t fundamentally understand your second paragraph, what do you mean “the main number is number of suspects”? The number I provided is not suspects, it’s actually homicides, for example.
So I think you’re wrong about:
Don’t let my remarks diminish your story. It’s powerful and something to remember and to forward to other people.
True.
The unit is suspects, not convicts.
But people in Germany compare themselves to Switzerland and Poland.
The people in place X should compare themselves to people in place X, first and foremost. Germany has almost never been safer than it is today, with all of the immigrants, with all of the fear, with all of the psyops, it’s an incredibly safe place to live by global standards and by German standards.
That’s my point. The data shows it, living in Germany shows it, and I think this is true for most places on earth.
Unfortunately for 2023
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-violent-crime-reaches-15-year-high-report/a-68758122
Coming from 150,000 in 1993. https://www.gut-leben-in-deutschland.de/indicators/security/crime/
So you’re correct in saying the crime rate went up in 2023, but saying it’s a 15 year high is misleading, including comparing it to 1993 because there’s a difference in population.
Looking at macrotrends.net the crime rate per 100k in 1993 was 1.67. The data here only goes up to 2021 but it’s 0.83. Even going back a few years to the highest peak, 2016 that’s still 1.17. So based on this data Germany was 1.5-2x more dangerous in 1993 than it was in 2021. There’s just more people living here than there ever has been. Like even if you take the 214k number and look back for the last time it was that high, it was 2007. The population hasn’t grown that much but the demographics surely have changed, and it’s now as bad as it was in 2007.
Now I didn’t live in Germany in 2007, but I’d bet I’d struggle to find someone who honestly believed 2003-2010 (when the # of reports was above 200k) was a dangerous period in Germany. Like it’s all just the news cycle mate, they get to slap a big 8% on the year over year change and they get to run that for a couple of weeks throughout the year. In reality, it’s not the migrants or the cannibis laws I saw one article suggest, it’s the fact that wealth inequality has continued to worsen not just in Germany but globally and that will cost us (and everyone) something fierce.
We’re seeing it in the US, we saw it in Germany last century, and we are marching onward to more inequality with the CDU and Merz leading the way.