- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmit.online
- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmit.online
London’s murder rate has dropped to its lowest in more than a decade with police in the capital and the mayor saying it is now one of the safest cities in the western world.
Highlights, from the EU, so not just Germany:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Crime_statistics
The overall trend was declining so far but it could be that we have reached the bottom. I haven’t said that the trend is wrong. I actually stressed that it is one counter example.
As you write, that doesn’t mean that the trend is wrong but we also can’t assume that everything is still alright without making sure that it is.
Again, there is missing a lot. A breakdown for countries, some context for victims (femicides in family context are mentioned, but not a lot more), motivation for property related crimes etc.
The problem is, conveying this kind of context is a complex task while it is very easy to oversimplify and overexaggerate cherrypicked statistics that fit a certain narrative, and right wing populists are exceptionally good at riling up the populace with the latter.
I agree with the worries, but by the same logic the number from the headline should also be treated as an outlier.
This is a setup for failure. If the numbers are not dropping anymore and the left wing is not ready to acknowledge it then they can’t understand why right wing parties are rising. It’s not all just fearmongering that convinces people to vote for the right wing.
If the only information we had, yes. We do have mire context though. We do have a specific place and the article gives additional information about the long term trends over decades. That is the relevant context.
If, if, if. If the numbers are not dropping anymore, we need more context, yes. For example, we need to look at the development of factors known to influence criminal behavior, like poverty rates, crisis situations, existential worries etc. Rhat is exactly my point the whole time, ffs.
Also I don’t know what you want to insinuate about the left wing now? At least here in Germany, Die Linke is the only party actually wanting to address issues that contribute to the decision towards criminal activities, like housing crisis, rising cost of living, etc.
Why do you think that is what I said? I didn’t state anything alike. It’s just the factor we’re discussing.
I was talking about the sentence that I quoted.
In general I agree with you and I agree with the trend. However, my opinion is that the AfD and other parties wouldn’t be successful if the established parties had acknowledged the outliers.
The sentence you quoted basically says that crime rates are not the reason for the rise of right wing parties. Nothing about fearmongering, that was my point.
And how do you think those outliers should have been acknowledged? Outliers are a regular occurence in statistics. Any acknowledgment that goes beyond “Yeah, that’s strange, however this is just an outlier at the moment, nothing to worry about yet” at the first sight of such an outlier is an overreaction. The far right overreacts (and I accuse them of doing so knowingly) by erecting bogeymen and accusing others of not acknowledging a statistic outlier by not overreacting. Combine that with conservative and neoliberal politics that did not appropriately react to actual crises, continue to exacerbate the living conditions for working class citizens, amplify precarious situations and play the same bogeymen as the far right and you have a nice boost in popularity for the far right. A media landscape that on one hand supports far right narratives and on the other hand fails to contextualize news and politicians’ outputs also helps a lot.
Which implies that there is no reason for their rise but fearmongering.
It is but I would still take it serious and increase the police force. It doesn’t hurt immigrants to have more police and it removes an argument for the right wing parties.
I agree. So why keep falling into that trap?
But what if 2023 is no outlier? Look at chapter 6.2, development of violent crimes, page 41.
https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/publikationen/themen/sicherheit/BMI25028_pks-2024.pdf
There seems to be a decline until 2021, after which violent crime is rising.
No, really not so. Only if you think this is supposed to be a comprehensive discussion about the rise of the far right and not a look on specific details.
Hell no. German police has systemic issues with racism, racial profiling, right wing bias, etc. Thinking more police wouldn’t hurt is a very priviledged perspective. Also, more police costs a lot of money that would be better invested in prevention (which would also be cheaper in the long run).
Who’s falling?
Again, then you should first look into the developement of known factors that influence the decision for criminal behavior, like poverty rates, rising cost of living, crises, existential fears etc. And what happened in 2022?
But also, the fearmongering of far right populists and parties began many years earlier than 2022.
Plus we should look at what kind of crimes are happening. A large portion of the rise in violent crimes is attributed to neonazis attacking left wing people, queers, migrants, politicians, etc.
And then you are specifically talking about violent crimes while the comment you answered to was talking about crime rates in general, so you slightly shifted the goalpost.
You can’t have it both ways. Above you are arguing for nuances but now focussing on the most relevant crime is wrong? “All crimes” includes crimes against immigration laws and shop lifting on one side and tax evasion on the other. I doubt that those are relevant to the discussion.
I don’t understand this.
Then that has to be changed. Otherwise the left reduces itself to a tool for the creation of the appearance of democracy.
Who is not winning?
That’s the point where the AfD is winning. The default reaction can’t be to start with talking it away.
Should be its own category. If not that would be a huge manipulation.