A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a Russian missile impacting Ukraine.


As we rapidly approach the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the Ukraine War (an anniversary I absolutely did not expect would occur while the two sides were still in combat), we have seen Russia turn to a new strategy, starting late last year but intensifying in December and now January.

Russia seems intent to disconnect Ukrainian cities from the electrical grid by focussing bombing on thermal, gas, and hydro stations, causing major power blackouts across the country. Russia is also bombing substations relatively close to Ukraine’s three nuclear power plants (Zaporzhye, the fourth, remains under Russia control), studiously avoiding hitting the premises of the NPPs themselves for obvious reasons. Even if they’re far away from the NPPs, striking the substations does have risks, because if the nuclear reactors aren’t shut off before the substations are bombed, there is a possibility that there will be insufficient backup power to prevent a meltdown - hence why Russia hasn’t really attempted to do this for four years.

Most of the electricity generated in Ukraine comes from the nuclear power plants, both because of the infrastructure they had initially (Ukraine was 7th in the world in nuclear electricity generation before the war) and because Russia has bombed most non-nuclear power stations and substations already. Over the last couple weeks, we have seen Ukrainian media fly into a frenzy about long-lasting blackouts, especially in the middle of winter. After the Zionist entity destroyed virtually all civilian infrastructure in Gaza while the West cheered on, they now appear to have changed their mind on whether such strikes are an effective and humanitarian option to subject millions of people to.

Regardless of whether you personally believe these Russian strikes are justified (I’m pretty iffy myself), it must be stressed that Ukraine has been bombing Russian tankers and oil refineries and power stations for a long time now, so in a sense, this is a retaliation. It’s also remarkable, compared to Western wars, that Ukraine was even still allowed to possess a functioning electrical grid for nearly four years into a war of this magnitude. That all being said, while Ukrainian strikes have been somewhat but not overly impactful on the Russian oil sector, the response is clearly very asymmetrical: Ukraine’s power grid is, according to Ukrainian energy corporations, now 70% degraded and is virtually impossible to now repair, and blackouts can last most of the day.

For everybody’s sake, I hope a ceasefire and peace deal will be reached soon. But after four years of seeing opportunities for an end to this war squandered over and over, I’m not holding my breath.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Chana [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    4 days ago

    Strictly speaking, Delcy cannot. The most she can do, personally, is limit damage by socially manipulating Trump into doing less militarism and sanctions. Everything else must actually be a collective effort and follows not from Delcy herself but from formations in Venezuela, its political class, its organizations, its economic conditions. Dengism was, similarly, not just Deng, but an entire group of people, with bases of power, looking to address substantial contradictions in China’s political economy, particularly the instability (by various metrics), and the attempt to build productive forces through controlled foreign capital investment was just part of a larger set of plans.

    This might sound like a copout because of course this is always the case for every country and we really just want to know what political program we advocate for and how our analysis leads to it - and what role we play in effecting it. But it’s essential to ground ourselves in that context, because “sell the rope” for Venezuela is again not in the cards, because Venezuela is a small country, it’s full of much deeper capitalist conditions that are not being untrenched, and its political formations, while more advanced than anything in the imperial core, are not as solid or empowered as what China was working with. You need high levels of top level economic control, planst and implemented over decades, with discipline, to pull that off, and that’s for a big country. Venezuela will never hang the US.

    But the US can destroy itself and Venezuela can fight to survive its death throes. The goal cannot be to defeat the US through its own efforts, but to build power and alliances that withstand the weapons the US possesses and uses.

    But maybe you’re just asking about how Venezuela could get the US to give it things, under the auspices of exploitation (or similar), but actually subvert this into a win for Venezuela. I think the answer is basically no, aside from highly qualified things like modest foreign capital investment witg milquetoast regulation. Likely a good thing for Venezuela, but not really pulling one over on the imperialists. It would just look like self-exploitation to become focused on an export economy in yet another way, and the whole issue here is that Venezuela needs (1) to have the sovereignty to do some central planning, import substitution, etc and (2) survive any actual military campaign directed at it, something possible only if it gets nukes or forms a strong regional coalition. Both of these things will not come from directly working with the US. They’ll come from working with the rest of the global south, if anything, and require a greater degree of left takeover of the political sphere. Venezuela should honestly read from the DPRK’s notes, if anything. But it’s really not politically developed for that approach, at least not to my eyes. So, proximally, the thing to really focus on is political development of the population. If I lived in Venezuela I’d be in a local org and trying to grow it. That’s honestly the best thing any one person can do. And then they can use that org to push towards central planning, away from accepting bad deals with the US, towards regional partnerships.

    • MLRL_Commie [comrade/them, he/him]@hexbear.net
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      4 days ago

      Yeah this is the sort of comment I was hoping to get, thanks. I don’t have time at the moment but will reply soon. But a teaser: I think you’re limiting the possibilities by keeping as static the imperialized relationship between the US and Venezuela without accounting for ways that other geopolitical movements can be used to shift that. I only have vague notions still, but it seems those possibilities aren’t being very widely discussed and I want to know how they could be leveraged.

      • Chana [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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        4 days ago

        If the other geopolitical movement is China, yes that is key. But it is not a stalwart ally, so it can’t be depended on for defense or for always bailing you out when the US tries to strangle you. The moment you’re perceived as not seriously trying to fulfill your end of bargains, they don’t see it as a win-win relationship any longer. And the US will be repeatedly sabotaging Venezuela to make them into an unreliable partner unless Venezuela takes much more control of its own economy. And it’s going in the exact opposite direction of that right now, capitulating to US demands.

        Either way, this is really just an exercise in analysis. What to do as individuals remains the same: organize more communists into our orgs.