A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn’t AI generated, because I’m very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.


Now that the initial shock of the war’s beginning is over and there’s a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side’s victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn’t any negotiations, and it’s just attrition to the death, then it’s gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.

All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There’s the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran’s strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren’t seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West’s utter lack of reliability with reporting… well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I’m predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran’s government generally isn’t going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.

However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Alaskaball [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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    7 hours ago

    Featured post by user oliveoil on a request to residents in the agressor nations to attempt to assist in anti-war efforts through economic actions

    Reply to this post with additional material on how to participate in the anti-war movement.

    Site is starting to slow down for some. please upload videos to other sites then post the link here instead of directly embedding them into the site. If you have posted embedded videos to this page before, when you have the time, please edit your comments containing the videos and swap them out for off-site links.

    Try to follow rule 6 a bit harder while the conflict is actively ongoing to keep the news mega clear and on topic.

    General notice: do not use dd geopolitics as a source of information as it it ran by the fascist party ACP and its fascist collaborators.

  • sictransitgloria [she/her]@hexbear.net
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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz6e7g96890o

    Four arrested as part of counter terror investigation relating to Iran

    I don’t think it’s a coincidence that maybe a month or two before the Axis of Epstein started striking Iran, the UK etc designated the IRGC a terrorist organisation. so now I expect anybody who’s publicly shown support for Iran (and I guess in particular their military) will be targeted, the same way Pal Action supporters were targeted. but this time it feels even more nefarious

    keep this in mind and post accordingly

    ok the article got updated and it looks like it isn’t due to support for Iran’s army in this case. but I still expect it to happen at some point

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://xcancel.com/kath_krueger/status/2029646164467790241

    The president also painted a picture of Iran’s military capability being effectively dismantled. “They have no navy. They have no air force. They have no detection of air. It’s all wiped out. Their radar is all wiped out. Their military is decimated,” Trump said. “All they have is guts.”

    “All [Iran has] is guts” really isn’t the insult Trump thinks it is

    You look at these Viet Cong, they don’t even have uniforms. No uniforms! Which is actually, because I was saying, that’s disgraceful. Every one of them, braver than the bravest American, they know the terrain, and they care very much about Vietnam. And that’s all they have!

    tito-laugh

    also, even if all the things he said were true, notice how he doesn’t mentioned anything about missiles and drones, which is how the conflict is actually being fought

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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    Something not talked about in ballistic missile defence inventories for the Gulf Arab states: KM SAM Block II.

    What is KM-SAM? It is a South Korean air and ballistic missile defence system, based off of Russian technology. It uses a very similar altitude control system (ACS) for hit to kill capability against ballistic missiles, and canards, to the 9M96 series of interceptors for the Russian S-350 and S-400 systems. The PESA fire control radar is also based on technology from these Russian systems, there was technical assistance and co-operation between Russia and South Korea. You can see the lateral thrusters for the ACS very well in the above image. Thus, it’s in the same class as PATRIOT PAC 3. Anti ballistic missile system with a rocket powered ACS and hit to kill capability. Very unique capability only a few air defence systems possess, to be in this class.

    As for who has this system currently, the UAE operates two batteries, and has 10 on order. Saudi Arabia and Iraq both have 8 each on order. These states will likely demand that South Korea speeds up production, and in the case of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, throw huge amounts of money at it. The UAE, which already operates two systems, will be asking for a restock of interceptors, again with a big financial incentive.

    In a strange twist of fate, the Russian technology in the 9M96 interceptors and S-350 concept live on despite production issues in Russia, as a South Korean built system intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles. The world has truly gone mad.

  • oliveoil [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    https://sonar21.com/the-failure-of-us-and-israeli-air-defense/

    While the US and Israel are delivering some punishing blows in Iran, Iran continues to successfully attack US military and intelligence targets in the Persian Gulf countries and is pummeling Israel.

    Since February 28, 2026, amid escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks (including drone and missile strikes on US diplomatic facilities and regional bases), the US State Department has ordered the closure or indefinite suspension of operations at several US embassies in the Persian Gulf and broader Middle East region. These include:

    Article here

    Saudi Arabia (U.S. Embassy in Riyadh): Closed after Iranian drone attacks targeted the compound on March 2–3, 2026. The embassy urged Americans to shelter in place and avoid the area.

    Kuwait (U.S. Embassy in Kuwait City): Closed following an Iranian drone/missile attack on or near the facility (reported March 2–3, 2026). Operations halted “until further notice.”

    Lebanon (U.S. Embassy in Beirut): Closed on March 3, 2026, due to ongoing regional tensions and threats (though Lebanon is not strictly Persian Gulf, it’s often grouped in Middle East alerts).

    Operations at the US embassies in Doha, Dubai and Manama also have been dramatically scaled down. The videos posted during the last five days show Iranian missiles and drones hitting targets in the six Gulf countries virtually unopposed.

    The real damage is being done to US military bases/installations in the region. The following US military bases/installations in the Persian Gulf (or directly associated with Gulf states) have been confirmed or reported as attacked/hit since February 28, based on US military statements, satellite imagery analyses (e.g., Planet Labs), media reports (NYT, CNN, Al Jazeera, Stars and Stripes), and official confirmations from host nations. Here is how the Western media sources are spinning these attacks:

    Naval Support Activity Bahrain / U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet Headquarters (Manama, Bahrain) — Targeted multiple times with missiles and drones. Damage included destruction of several structures, radomes (radar domes), satellite communications terminals, and warehouses. Bahrain confirmed attacks on the base, with explosions and smoke reported.

    Al Udeid Air Base (near Doha, Qatar) — The largest US military facility in the Middle East. Hit by Iranian missiles (at least one confirmed impact, with others intercepted). Qatar reported interceptions of dozens of missiles/drones targeting the base, with minor damage in some cases. No major casualties reported from these strikes.

    Ali Al Salem Air Base (Kuwait) — Struck by ballistic missiles and drones. Satellite imagery showed damage to buildings and structures. Kuwait confirmed interceptions and hits; part of multiple strikes across Kuwaiti sites hosting US troops.

    Camp Arifjan (Kuwait) — Attacked with drones/missiles, resulting in US casualties (at least three service members killed and several wounded in one incident). Low-resolution imagery indicated damage.

    Camp Buehring (Kuwait) — Reported hits/damage from projectiles, per satellite analysis and US reports.

    Al Dhafra Air Base (Abu Dhabi, UAE) — Targeted with missiles/drones. Satellite imagery showed damage to buildings (at least three–four structures hit between February 28 and March 1). UAE defenses intercepted many incoming threats.

    Prince Sultan Air Base (Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia) — Bombarded by Iranian ballistic missiles. Saudi defenses intercepted many, but reports confirmed attacks on the base (roughly 40 miles from Riyadh).

    The damage that is being inflicted is far greater and more severe than the Pentagon is reporting. The most damaging result of the Iranian attacks has been the destruction of critical radar systems that are supposed to provide an early warning of Iranian missile launches. These include:

    The AN/FPS-132 Block 5 Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR) at or near Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) — Valued at approximately $1.1 billion. This is the largest and most critical US-operated ballistic missile early-warning radar in the Middle East, with a detection range of up to 5,000 km for launches.

    The AN/TPY-2 Radar (associated with THAAD system) at Al-Ruwais Industrial City (UAE) — Estimated value $500 million. This forward-based X-band radar provides precise tracking for terminal high-altitude missile defense. Iran claimed destruction, and open-source satellite imagery (Planet Labs) shows a direct hit.

    Radome (radar dome) and satellite communications terminals at Naval Support Activity Bahrain / US Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain) — A verified Iranian drone strike hit a radome (protective cover for radar/satcom antennas) on February 28–March 1. Satellite imagery (NYT, Planet Labs) shows destruction of at least two large radomes/SATCOM terminals and related structures. These are sophisticated but not standalone “early-warning radars” like the AN/FPS-132; they support naval ops and C2 (command and control).

    The Al Dhafra Air Base, a major U.S. Air Force hub in Abu Dhabi hosting the 380th Expeditionary Wing and advanced aircraft, was targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones in late February–early March 2026 waves.

    Satellite imagery and multiple analyses confirm that a key US radar system at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan was heavily damaged or destroyed during Iran’s retaliatory strikes in late February–early March 2026. The radar in question is an AN/TPY-2 (Army Navy/Transportable Radar Surveillance and Control Model 2), a high-resolution X-band phased-array radar used with the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile battery. This radar is designed for detecting, tracking, and discriminating ballistic missiles (including in terminal phase) and is one of the most sophisticated US forward-deployed missile defense sensors.

    Iran’s destruction of the AN/TPY-2 and the AN/FPS-132 radars has eliminated the early warning capability of the US military in the region. Prior to their destruction, Israel and the US would have a 15 to 30 minute warning when a missile was launched from Iran and could, in theory, take counter measures and prepare their air defense systems. Videos from Israel during the last two days show that 90% of Iranian missiles are hitting their targets without being intercepted.

    The unknown variable is how many missiles does Iran still have in its inventory. The US is betting that Iran is running out of missiles. I believe that Iran’s stockpile is far larger and more robust. We’ll see how things develop as the war enters its second week.

  • sisatici [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://x.com/KasraAarabi/status/2029545539738521745

    “The regime’s state tv (IRIB 3) has just spent the past 20 mins not talking about the U.S. or Israel, but how their goal is to “kill the idea of Dubai.” They claim Kuwait used to be like Dubai but it never recovered from the First Gulf War. They claim this is their goal in the UAE”

    I can not say the source is reliable but I just love the absolute beast mode. I can not wait for live execution of labubu by Iran. KILL THE IDEA OF DUBAI. END THEIR ARROGANCE.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2029728393156034649

    About 800 Patriot missiles were used in just three days of fighting in the Middle East — more than Ukraine has had during the entire war, Zelensky said.

    They want you to believe that the Patriot was achieving 100% interception rates when they’ve only been given 800 PACs in total and the Russians have fired something like 10,000 missiles and 100,000 drones at Ukraine since the Patriot was introduced

    I’m not sure how well the Ukrainians would really know the munition expenditures of the current conflict, but I guess this does incidentally give us a figure of how much they received - which, at “less than 800”, is, uh, a pretty pathetic number, given this is the entire collective West pitching in. Maybe they just meant the PAC-3s, and they’ve used a bunch more of the older PAC-2s?

  • Boise_Idaho [null/void, any]@hexbear.net
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    https://xcancel.com/tparsi/status/2029555364262228454

    Similarities between Israel’s bombing of Gaza and Tehran are growing stronger.

    In both cases, it appears Israel is using AI without any human oversight.

    For instance, Israel has bombed a park in Tehran called “Police park.” It has nothing to do with the police.

    But it appears AI identified it as a target since Israel is bombing all government related buildings.

    No one in Israel brothered to check and find out that it is just a park.

      • MolotovHalfEmpty [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        The AI layer is for tracking, but it can also be used to obfuscate specific responsibility and chain of command. Same reason police forces use it to give racist ‘predictive policing’ policies a sheen of neutrality and pseudoscience.

    • oliveoil [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      I was curious about Israel’s wasteful evil. Sometimes evil, vindictiveness, and stupidity alone didn’t explain it.

      The puzzle is coming together better now.

      Their AI sound analysis to track explosions. Their AI computer vision. Their AI auto decision making.

      Lot’s of precision weapons used quickly and dumbly.

      In the Israeli manuals for counterinsurgency (COIN), they basically hype up technological supremacy. I mean, these guys were high on AI hype well before the rest of the world.

      For US & NATO (according to multiple manuals I’ve read), COIN is when you make sure you have a comprador class that fights to keep their jobs rather than fights you. And COIN relies on SWET: sewage, water, electricity, and trash.

      For Israel, COIN is when you are really smart, really strong, and you hit the enemy really hard.

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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    Iran shot down their first confirmed MQ-9 Reaper UCAV of the war, over Khorramabad.

    Source, with images of the AGM-114 Hellfire missile from the MQ-9

    A US source speaking to CBS News says that the USA has lost at least 3 MQ-9s so far, with the other two losses coming from friendly fire by Qatar, and a crash off of the coast of Iran, into the ocean. However, the Qatari loss is referred to as a seperate incident, so potentially 4 MQ-9s have been lost.

    Link

    • SwitchyandWitchy [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      If Qatar actually shot down 6 US aircraft that we know of not even a week into the war, I don’t even know what. I’m speechless. I think that might be more than the total number of claimed friendly shootdowns by Russia in the entirety of their Ukraine campaign unless a bunch other happened that I’m unaware of.

    • RobnHood [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      with the other two losses coming from friendly fire by Qatar, and a crash off of the coast of Iran

      We must salute the valiant pilots and AD operators of the Gulf client states in their valiant campaign against us aircraft.

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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        Iran did hit the AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar there, so Iranian did successfully degrade ballistic missile defence there. I’m guessing a drone fired from Iraq, to bypass defences. But degrade, not eliminate, the two PATRIOT batteries there can still perform terminal phase ballistic missile defence with their own fire control radars, and US Navy SM-3 Block 1B interceptors fired from AEGIS equipped destroyers and cruisers in the Mediterranean can intercept missiles in the midcourse aimed at Jordan.

        Despite the online chatter about using this kind of missile to hit an airbase, it’s a poor choice for that. It’s not a typical cluster warhead or submunition, it’s an ERS (Early Release Submunition) equipped ballistic missile. Because it releases the submunitions so early in flight, to make a terminal intercept impossible, the spread of the submunitions is massive, that looks like it could easily be over 5 miles/8km. Also, the submunitions have to go under some kind of atmospheric re-entry, some of them won’t survive re-entry and burn up in the atmosphere. Because a lot of the weight is taken up by the heat shield, the explosive power is reduced, the damage is minimal per impact, which is spread out over a very large area. And not every one explodes, submunitions are infamous for duds and UXO (unexploded ordnance).

        Damage from these submunitions:

        Unexploded submunitions:

          • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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            Complicating ballistic missile defence and guaranteeing some sort of hit. The spread is so wide it can’t really be aimed at a single target. In the past I thought it was for airfields like most people, but then after seeing them in action I can’t support that conclusion, the spread is just too large. It’s a countervalue weapon high up on the escalation ladder. (Which Iran is at their highest level, blockading the Strait of Hormuz with missiles and drones, and firing missiles and drones at multiple countries, including energy infrastructure on occasion).

          • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            Looks like some pretty decent shrapnel spread in the photo with the balconies. The glass has what look like bullet holes going down multiple floors.

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    The US posted a video of an attack on the Iranian “drone aircraft carrier”, IRIS Shahid Bagheri. One bomb hit the hull, another the bridge.

    Video

    I have little idea why the US would do this from a military perspective, as the drone carrier didn’t have a functional drone air wing and was just commissioned last year, converted from an oil tanker, it was a white elephant of sorts. Even the Iranian ship the US sunk off of the coast of Sri Lanka was more of a “threat”, as it was a functional warship. I’m guessing that they just want to sink every ship Iran has, because Trump said that the US must “destroy the Iranian Navy”. Also probably for propaganda reasons to say that the US “sunk a carrier”.

    • RobnHood [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      It’s a shame, it was my favorite IRGC naval asset. Returning to the WW2 era of aircraft carriers converted from a cargo ship, you can’t not get romantic about that. Obviously it was never designed to partake in a war such as this, but it will be missed. On a related note, I recently learned that the Soviet Navy had experimented with the concept, they even went as far as landing and taking off from a cargo ship with a Yak-38. Maybe if the Yak-38 didn’t suck they would’ve gone further with the concept.