Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn’t AI generated, because I’m very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.
Now that the initial shock of the war’s beginning is over and there’s a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side’s victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn’t any negotiations, and it’s just attrition to the death, then it’s gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.
All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There’s the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran’s strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren’t seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West’s utter lack of reliability with reporting… well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I’m predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran’s government generally isn’t going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.
However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.
Last week’s thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Why aren’t they focusing more on the big US base in Jordan?
Iran did hit the AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar there, so Iranian did successfully degrade ballistic missile defence there. I’m guessing a drone fired from Iraq, to bypass defences. But degrade, not eliminate, the two PATRIOT batteries there can still perform terminal phase ballistic missile defence with their own fire control radars, and US Navy SM-3 Block 1B interceptors fired from AEGIS equipped destroyers and cruisers in the Mediterranean can intercept missiles in the midcourse aimed at Jordan.
Despite the online chatter about using this kind of missile to hit an airbase, it’s a poor choice for that. It’s not a typical cluster warhead or submunition, it’s an ERS (Early Release Submunition) equipped ballistic missile. Because it releases the submunitions so early in flight, to make a terminal intercept impossible, the spread of the submunitions is massive, that looks like it could easily be over 5 miles/8km. Also, the submunitions have to go under some kind of atmospheric re-entry, some of them won’t survive re-entry and burn up in the atmosphere. Because a lot of the weight is taken up by the heat shield, the explosive power is reduced, the damage is minimal per impact, which is spread out over a very large area. And not every one explodes, submunitions are infamous for duds and UXO (unexploded ordnance).
Damage from these submunitions:
Unexploded submunitions:
what are these suited for? 8km spread for a bunch of potholes doesn’t seem that useful
I could imagine that a military installation being hit, with a decent amount of above ground buildings and equipment, could slow down deployment and operations for a bit.
First, you’ve gotta make the decision to get everybody out of their hidey holes to assess the damage. Then you’ve gotta deal with the UXO and removing equipment too damage to be quickly repaired. Then you’ve gotta figure out how to get replacements while reassessing mission capabilities of the installation. All while trying to keep track of the next barrage.
Probably a comparable idea with non-military installations being targeted. Slow down or stop the functions of a part of a city for a few days to a week while the damage is assessed, UXO removed, important repairs are managed.
In both instances it could shake the moral of people as their side’s air defense is not adequate to keep such a large area from taking any kind of hit.
Complicating ballistic missile defence and guaranteeing some sort of hit. The spread is so wide it can’t really be aimed at a single target. In the past I thought it was for airfields like most people, but then after seeing them in action I can’t support that conclusion, the spread is just too large. It’s a countervalue weapon high up on the escalation ladder. (Which Iran is at their highest level, blockading the Strait of Hormuz with missiles and drones, and firing missiles and drones at multiple countries, including energy infrastructure on occasion).
With that kind of spread and given that the US and “israel” both keep their planes well protected it makes little sense to fire them at airbases, unless they’re being careless and park their aircraft/helicopters in the open. However the chances of damaging other assets are never zero, even one of these projectiles can hit and damage stuff like sensors, radar dishes and even missile batteries themselves as well as other logistical assets (like trucks?) that add up to attrition, you just have to be lucky I guess.
The US do park their planes in the open a lot, but the odds with such a massive spread are not favourable to Iran.
Even in their bases near Iran? Tempting…
There’s nothing parked near Iran at the moment. Look into the US ACE doctrine for how they generate sorties under fire if you want.
Will do, thanks!
Very good to threaten oil field and gas field I think. Better as a threat.
Are the submunitions unguided?
Yes, after release they are unguided.
Looks like some pretty decent shrapnel spread in the photo with the balconies. The glass has what look like bullet holes going down multiple floors.
Probably saving most of their long range missiles for Israel. Jordan is only a tiny bit closer.