🚨 KITE Insta Analysis: A 25% US tariff on EU autos would hit Europe’s automotive core hard. In our KITE simulation, 🇩🇪 Germany’s auto-sector output falls by almost €15bn in the short run and about €30bn in the long run. Losses are also sizeable in 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, and 🇸🇪 Sweden.
The broader macro hit is smaller than the sectoral one — but still meaningful. Real value added falls most in 🇸🇰 Slovakia (around -0.85% short run), followed by 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, and 🇸🇪 Sweden. This is what deeply integrated auto supply chains look like under tariff stress.
For 🇩🇪 Germany, the EU remains by far the biggest destination for automotive exports. But outside Europe, the 🇺🇸 US is the single most important market — ahead of 🇨🇳 China and 🇬🇧 the UK. That helps explain why US auto tariffs would bite German industry so directly.
For the EU as a whole, the biggest extra-EU destinations for automotive exports are the 🇺🇸 US and 🇬🇧 UK, followed by 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and 🇨🇭 Switzerland. So even a sector-specific US tariff would hit one of the EU’s most important external export markets.
As always, huge CAVEAT: We don’t have any details beyond “25% on EU automotives”. So these simulations give us direction and sense of magnitude, no “exact” forecast
Source: Julian Hinz on X/Twitter.
Couldn’t Europe also put forth a counter-tariff for US megacars and all that shit?
No one buys that garbage outside the US.
Sadly, I see them more and more. And that is why I want to stop that.
We should ban these cars entirely for safety and pollution reasons. This would impact a grand total for 8000 people that were seriously considering buying this type of vehicle in the entirety of the EU. This wouldn’t impact the US car business in the slightest, true, still good to do it though.
What we should do in retaliation:
We don’t buy their XXXL cars anyway. They don’t fit our streets.
I see several US monstrosities every day here in Sweden.
They are absolutely terrible.
It should be illegal to sell cars with a bonnet that is taller than the roof of a normal WV Golf class car.
Wouldn’t make much difference. The US fails to export a meaningful number of cars to Europe. Those that are sold in the EU are mostly not produced in the US. Shredding that nonsense “agreement” with the US would be the logical step and counter measures, but not necessarily on cars.
Make US services pay. Punish Meta, Google, Amazon for theit anti-competitive behavior. Fine X into bankruptcy.
Exactly. The trade bazooka. This is the way.