I also lost your link to the section on Ukraine. I’ll write it here.
Regarding our conversation at the beginning of spring about what’s happening.
My vision of the situation on the front is coming true so far. We were waiting for the green stuff to appear. It has, but nothing has changed at all. Russia is attacking in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with minimal success, while Ukraine is attacking westward, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and is also advancing. Russia failed to achieve a strategic initiative during the spring offensive. But the most important thing, as I mentioned earlier, is the strikes deep into Russia, which are becoming more painful with each passing month. I get the impression that Ukraine now has parity in drones. Europe is increasing drone production on its own territory. Ukraine has begun using drones with artificial intelligence. According to local residents, something similar is happening in Energodar now.
Drones continue to displace traditional weapons with each passing month; very soon they will no longer be needed. War is becoming much cheaper, which is very beneficial for Ukraine. I haven’t seen Zelenskyy so confident in a long time.
All that’s left is to wait for your forecasts by mid-summer.
Did you see a recent interview with Karaganov where he basically says that the west does not understand what nuclear deterrence is, and that his view is that Russia will eventually end up striking a NATO country, first conventionally, and then if the message doesn’t get through then using a limited nuclear strike as a demonstration. It seems that’s where we’re headed at this point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Gd5jdl36cg
a very different culture here from reddit, and didn’t know that either about Yusupov
I also lost your link to the section on Ukraine. I’ll write it here.
Regarding our conversation at the beginning of spring about what’s happening.
My vision of the situation on the front is coming true so far. We were waiting for the green stuff to appear. It has, but nothing has changed at all. Russia is attacking in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with minimal success, while Ukraine is attacking westward, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and is also advancing. Russia failed to achieve a strategic initiative during the spring offensive. But the most important thing, as I mentioned earlier, is the strikes deep into Russia, which are becoming more painful with each passing month. I get the impression that Ukraine now has parity in drones. Europe is increasing drone production on its own territory. Ukraine has begun using drones with artificial intelligence. According to local residents, something similar is happening in Energodar now. Drones continue to displace traditional weapons with each passing month; very soon they will no longer be needed. War is becoming much cheaper, which is very beneficial for Ukraine. I haven’t seen Zelenskyy so confident in a long time. All that’s left is to wait for your forecasts by mid-summer.
Did you see a recent interview with Karaganov where he basically says that the west does not understand what nuclear deterrence is, and that his view is that Russia will eventually end up striking a NATO country, first conventionally, and then if the message doesn’t get through then using a limited nuclear strike as a demonstration. It seems that’s where we’re headed at this point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Gd5jdl36cg
Incidentally, Mearsheimer agrees with Karaganov and also thinks that Russia has to reestablish nuclear deterrence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx7osj5gCmo