I don’t think these strikes undermine Russia’s internal stability in any meaningful way. What they do is harden the opinion that Putin is not pursuing the war hard enough, and that there needs to be direct retaliation against Europe. At this point, I think it’s a very likely scenario to unfold in the next few months if things keep going the way they are. They already named the factories in Europe, so we know what the targets will be.
I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting. First, they’ll do a conventional strike with an Oreshnik, and if Europe doesn’t get the message, it’ll be a tactical nuclear strike next as a demonstration.
And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don’t see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.
And AFU can dig in, but this has always worked out the same way. I see no reason to expect anything different this time, especially given how the manpower shortage is only getting worse.
Do we need to go to the section you created for me and our Chinese colleague?
I don’t think these strikes undermine Russia’s internal stability in any meaningful way.
From what I can see right now, Russia is holding up for the time being. But don’t forget, winter is coming; it’s going to be cold for both Ukraine and Russia—or at least parts of Russia. It’s a good thing winters in Crimea aren’t that cold.
One thing is certain: we’re going to be totally screwed this winter. I was planning to throw out some old furniture, but now I won’t—it’ll serve as firewood for the winter.
I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting.
Look, Сomrade, get this straight: you’re essentially listening to someone on the level of Medvedev—not even Peskov, who at least knows how to choose his words carefully.
This is an advisor to Putin.
Desire alone isn’t enough; you need political will—something Russia is, to put it mildly, rather short on. There are so many internal contradictions within the country.
“I think we are all concerned about the same thing. I don’t think there is a single person in this country whose primary concern is anything other than the speedy cessation of hostilities; that goes without saying.”
— Sberbank CEO Herman Gref, July 1 (yesterday).
Ending the war and achieving victory are two different things. And you realize this isn’t just some blogger panicking—it’s the head of the state-owned bank.
Besides, China would 100% not support a nuclear strike.
Right now, that could only happen in the event of aggression from Ukraine; that is precisely why Lukashenko went to “pay his respects” to Xi.
They were coordinating potential scenarios. Lukashenko told Xi: “If Ukraine makes a move, I’ll hit them with nukes—Vova is fine with it.” Xi tacitly agreed. We can see this in how Lukashenko has suddenly grown bolder.
The Anglo-Saxons took a look at that… thought it over… and decided it was best not to go there!
And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don’t see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.
This is a major problem for Russia right now. They don’t even know what to do themselves.
If Russia were absolutely confident in itself, it wouldn’t have spent a year parroting the “Spirit of Anchorage” line; it would have simply taken action—silently!
People in Russia are already laughing at this “Spirit of Anchorage” notion—even the panic-mongering bloggers! They are demanding political will from the state to at least take out the bridges across the Dnieper—before things escalate to a nuclear strike, как до Киева раком!
They’re just bridges. Instead of destroying them completely, you could just punch holes in them—patching the holes takes only a week, so the bridges aren’t totally wrecked. That’s what one of the panic-stricken bloggers suggested to Belousov.
If you tell me Putin knows what he’s doing, I’ll reply: the escalation has already reached the nuclear level. You could argue that that’s exactly what Putin knows! Yet a couple of years ago, this could have been resolved with the snap of a finger! You remember the time when the West was afraid to supply heavy weaponry, right? That was the moment to act!!!
we reached max comment depth for the thread :)
I don’t think these strikes undermine Russia’s internal stability in any meaningful way. What they do is harden the opinion that Putin is not pursuing the war hard enough, and that there needs to be direct retaliation against Europe. At this point, I think it’s a very likely scenario to unfold in the next few months if things keep going the way they are. They already named the factories in Europe, so we know what the targets will be.
I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting. First, they’ll do a conventional strike with an Oreshnik, and if Europe doesn’t get the message, it’ll be a tactical nuclear strike next as a demonstration.
And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don’t see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.
And AFU can dig in, but this has always worked out the same way. I see no reason to expect anything different this time, especially given how the manpower shortage is only getting worse.
What should we do now?
Do we need to go to the section you created for me and our Chinese colleague?
From what I can see right now, Russia is holding up for the time being. But don’t forget, winter is coming; it’s going to be cold for both Ukraine and Russia—or at least parts of Russia. It’s a good thing winters in Crimea aren’t that cold.
One thing is certain: we’re going to be totally screwed this winter. I was planning to throw out some old furniture, but now I won’t—it’ll serve as firewood for the winter.
Look, Сomrade, get this straight: you’re essentially listening to someone on the level of Medvedev—not even Peskov, who at least knows how to choose his words carefully.
This is an advisor to Putin.
Desire alone isn’t enough; you need political will—something Russia is, to put it mildly, rather short on. There are so many internal contradictions within the country.
“I think we are all concerned about the same thing. I don’t think there is a single person in this country whose primary concern is anything other than the speedy cessation of hostilities; that goes without saying.”
— Sberbank CEO Herman Gref, July 1 (yesterday).
Ending the war and achieving victory are two different things. And you realize this isn’t just some blogger panicking—it’s the head of the state-owned bank.
Besides, China would 100% not support a nuclear strike.
Right now, that could only happen in the event of aggression from Ukraine; that is precisely why Lukashenko went to “pay his respects” to Xi.
They were coordinating potential scenarios. Lukashenko told Xi: “If Ukraine makes a move, I’ll hit them with nukes—Vova is fine with it.” Xi tacitly agreed. We can see this in how Lukashenko has suddenly grown bolder.
The Anglo-Saxons took a look at that… thought it over… and decided it was best not to go there!
This is a major problem for Russia right now. They don’t even know what to do themselves.
If Russia were absolutely confident in itself, it wouldn’t have spent a year parroting the “Spirit of Anchorage” line; it would have simply taken action—silently!
People in Russia are already laughing at this “Spirit of Anchorage” notion—even the panic-mongering bloggers! They are demanding political will from the state to at least take out the bridges across the Dnieper—before things escalate to a nuclear strike, как до Киева раком!
They’re just bridges. Instead of destroying them completely, you could just punch holes in them—patching the holes takes only a week, so the bridges aren’t totally wrecked. That’s what one of the panic-stricken bloggers suggested to Belousov.
If you tell me Putin knows what he’s doing, I’ll reply: the escalation has already reached the nuclear level. You could argue that that’s exactly what Putin knows! Yet a couple of years ago, this could have been resolved with the snap of a finger! You remember the time when the West was afraid to supply heavy weaponry, right? That was the moment to act!!!