Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said on Wednesday that if Iran acquired a nuclear weapon, his country would seek to do the same. “If they get one, we have to get one,” bin Salman sai…
And the entire idea of nuclear non-proliferation is dead in the water for the foreseeable future, as a direct result of the full and complete abrogation of the Budapest Memorandum by all signatories except for the country that was the subject of the agreement (Ukraine). They surrendered their nukes in exchange for (what the Ukrainians thought were) ironclad agreements from all sides that their territorial integrity would be backstopped by three nuclear powers.
That didn’t pan out as expected for Ukraine. In 2014, the global response (and more importantly, the response from the signatories who weren’t executing a semi-stealthy invasion in Ukraine) did pretty much nothing, and that lack of robust response led directly to the more active phase of the Ukrainian War from February 24, 2022 onwards.
As an immediate result of the signatories (and the rest of the world) doing almost nothing back in 2024 2014 - and furthermore, unless the signatories, and all of Ukraine’s allies in general, stop pussy-footing around and actually provide a level of military aid that makes an actual long-term strategic difference - NOBODY is going to take the “give us your nukes and we’ll protect you” deal ever again. It’s been proven to be complete and utter bullshit. Moreover, if Ukraine still had nukes, Russia would never have chanced a nuclear response by invading them.
All the Budapest Memorandum, the failure to enforce its structures, and the Ukraine invasion and war have accomplished at this point is to prove that nuclear weapons are, in fact, the final word in territorial integrity and national security. An adversary will NOT invade you if one of the possible responses is “we will turn your cities to glass”.
And the entire idea of nuclear non-proliferation is dead in the water for the foreseeable future, as a direct result of the full and complete abrogation of the Budapest Memorandum by all signatories except for the country that was the subject of the agreement (Ukraine). They surrendered their nukes in exchange for (what the Ukrainians thought were) ironclad agreements from all sides that their territorial integrity would be backstopped by three nuclear powers.
That didn’t pan out as expected for Ukraine. In 2014, the global response (and more importantly, the response from the signatories who weren’t executing a semi-stealthy invasion in Ukraine) did pretty much nothing, and that lack of robust response led directly to the more active phase of the Ukrainian War from February 24, 2022 onwards.
As an immediate result of the signatories (and the rest of the world) doing almost nothing back in
20242014 - and furthermore, unless the signatories, and all of Ukraine’s allies in general, stop pussy-footing around and actually provide a level of military aid that makes an actual long-term strategic difference - NOBODY is going to take the “give us your nukes and we’ll protect you” deal ever again. It’s been proven to be complete and utter bullshit. Moreover, if Ukraine still had nukes, Russia would never have chanced a nuclear response by invading them.All the Budapest Memorandum, the failure to enforce its structures, and the Ukraine invasion and war have accomplished at this point is to prove that nuclear weapons are, in fact, the final word in territorial integrity and national security. An adversary will NOT invade you if one of the possible responses is “we will turn your cities to glass”.