Boise_Idaho [null/void, any]

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Cake day: January 8th, 2024

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  • Erm… A poor country fought the most advanced military in the world at the time to a stalemate, and protected the DPRK.

    Subjectively, it was extraordinary impressive for a country that bore the brunt of fascist extermination for 14 years to push back against an industrial power that didn’t do shit in the two world wars. Objectively, the ultimate goal of the war was to remove US presence from the Korean peninsula, which can only be completely accomplished with the overthrow of the ROK and the expulsion of the US military from the Korean peninsula.

    Are you telling me that China today can only competently protect its interest in Eurasia only if it has numerical advantage to the US? And if we’re being honest, China already has that in various aspects of its military.

    It’s not about protecting its interests, which is a euphemism anyways, but about projecting military power. And the PRC currently doesn’t have that. The US has over 800 overseas military bases. The PRC has a grand total of 3, 1 of which is in a country that also has a US military base, so it doesn’t even count. It has two overseas bases, one in Cambodia and one in Tajikistan. How are two bases in central Asia and southeast Asia respectively remotely helpful in what’s going on in South America? What’s the Chinese equivalent of Guam? The Chinese equivalent of Guam is the PRC funding Hawaiian separatists to kick out the USians from their islands and making a deal with a once more sovereign Kingdom of Hawaii to build a giant Chinese military base. And the PRC can’t just manufacture their way into 800 overseas military bases, so in order to make up this gap, the PLA has to compensate by being better than the US military in other areas. That’s when the PRC having less nukes and less aircraft carriers starts to become concerning because the overseas military bases gap is far harder to overcome.

    By your standards, the US should have steamrolled their enemies in Korea and Vietnam, but they didn’t. And the latter did not win decisively against the US military either. It was the mounting costs that made the US withdrew.

    The US losing in Vietnam is tangential to the fact that it can even wage war in Vietnam in the first place. The fact that the US could even wage war halfway across the world killing millions in the process speaks to its logistical capabilities and its ability to project power. This is something a lot of people forget. I am extremely skeptical that the PLA could do the equivalent today. I don’t think the PLA have the means to invade Peru or Bolivia. And I don’t mean a decapitation strike or nuking their capital, but boots on the ground occupying their capital and major cities. At its peak, the US had more than 500000 troops in Vietnam. Most of those troops had stops in Guam, Japan, and the Philippines (going back to the US having hundreds of overseas military bases) before being shipped out to the ROV. They didn’t all get shoved into a boat in California and sailed directly to South Vietnam.

    Ignoring the political dimensions or the fact that the US will 100% never allow this to happen, can the PRC militarily invade Guatemala for the sake of overthrowing the current government that recognizes the ROC, install a new provisional government that recognizes the PRC, and wage COIN against a population that presumably will not take kindly to Chinese invaders? Forget whether it can prop up the pro-PRC government, can the PRC even do it?


  • China in the 1950s fought the Americans and won in the Korean War without owning any nukes at all.

    It was a stalemate. If the PRC actually won, there wouldn’t be an ROK unless you’re one of those people who thinks that the PRC actually wants Korea to be forever divided into two countries. And in any case, the Korean War is over 70 years ago. US GIs were still running around with M14s. Much has change since then.

    Similarly, the USSR provided extensive military support during the Vietnam War.

    Yes, because the SU had a much more dangerous military. Compared with the US/NATO, the SU had more nukes and had a larger standing army among other things. It can make various military alliances through the Warsaw Pact because it had the military muscle to back up those alliances. The only thing worse than not making military alliances is making military alliances but lacking the military muscle to back it up.

    Since the reform and opening up, China’s foreign policy in terms of military has taken a drastic turn. Its first major operation was to invade Vietnam.

    You mean the same invasion where the PLA got owned by a bunch of Vietnamese border militias and how the PRC pushed for negotiations when the actual Vietnamese army started to march back from Cambodia to Vietnam?

    Like I said earlier, a frank evaluation is that the PRC doesn’t have the military muscle. I honestly don’t even think the PRC is a military superpower now. It’s more like a really strong regional power within its sphere of influence within eastern Asia than a military superpower that can project its power throughout the globe like the US. The PRC has nukes, but so does India. So does Pakistan. And France and the UK and the DPRK and the Zionist entity. Like, India technically became a nuclear triad before the PRC.

    But of course, the PRC is investing resources in improving its military. The PRC being able to build warships at a much faster pace than the US is the PRC leveraging its economic and manufacturing muscle to improve its military muscle. Everything is interconnected after all, and the good thing about an economic superpower is it can quickly improve its military due to superior procurement and manufacturing.


  • It has fully exposed that China’s foreign policy that emphasizes economic cooperation is far inferior to the USSR model of military protection when it comes to mitigating Western imperial advance.

    China’s economically focused foreign policy has served its purpose thus far since the gap between its military and the US’s was (is?) far wider than between the SU and the US. The SU had more nukes than the US at various points in its history with a peak of 39000+ nukes while the PRC has <700 nukes. The SU by 1965 has more than 10 times the number of nukes the PRC has right now. Now let’s compare navies. The SU had 5 aircraft carriers while the PRC only has 3 (the US has 11). The Red Navy had more ships and more personnel than the PLAN. Until the 2000s, the PLAN wasn’t even a blue water navy.

    The frank assessment is that the PRC doesn’t have the military muscle to do what the SU did, so it does what virtually every competitor in any competition does: it leverages its strength, in this case its economy and manufacturing capacity, and it hides its weakness while bidding its time to develop and train itself to patch up that weakness.

    Right now we are at a critical transitional period where the PRC has economically surpassed the US but has not militarily surpassed the US, so the US will lean hard on its military might as a form of hard power that is still stronger than the PRC. But the PRC is militarily developing as well, from rapidly increasing its nuclear stockpile to developing its shipbuilding capacity to the point where it has far exceed what the US has right now to being ahead of the US in developing 6th generation fighters. The US is still ahead of the military race, but the PRC is quickly catching up.

    The PRC restricting rare earth exports is the PRC leveraging its economic might to hurt the US’s military might while the US using B-2 bombers to blow up Iranian nuclear plants is the US leveraging its military might to hurt the PRC’s economic might. The PRC will flip countries towards them by making itself an economically attractive partner to do business with and the US will push countries away from China by dropping the military hammer on them and exacting a human cost on them for doing business with China.