Boise_Idaho [null/void, any]

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Cake day: January 8th, 2024

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  • Then there was also the Macron - Putin phonecall where Macron basically begged Putin not to invade Ukraine (I’m going off memory on this one).

    My memories are pretty hazy at this point and it’s so hard to find articles right before the invasion happened for obvious reasons, but I wanna say Macron actually met with Putin and Zelensky (or Russian/Ukrainian representatives) right before the invasion. Most contemporary reporting paint a picture of either the French government believing or the French government being reassured that there won’t be an invasion. That was the main reason why I ultimately fell on the “there won’t be an invasion” side. I didn’t think French intelligence was so incompetent that they wouldn’t know something ordinary people knew and I couldn’t think of a reason why the French government would lie about the invasion being eminent.

    In retrospect, this could be a case of France trying to diplomatically pressure Russia into not escalating hostilities. France rushed to the press saying that Russia agreed to not escalate even when Russia made no such promises, so when Russia “breaks” its promise, then the invasion would be even more politically costly.