If they want to drink raw milk and cough their lungs out; I am not going to stop them. The conservatives clearly wish to be left alone in their stupidity and lack of education, and we can’t force them to pursue knowledge.
I also suspect that the bird flu (H5N1) is not (as of yet, at the time this post was written…) likely to mutate to spread in a human-to-human context. It’s not impossible for it to do so though…but the mutation(s) have not yet reached a point where humans can pass it on to each other by breathing the same air; I would guess that a significant contact (Like breathing, eating or touching a very very very large amount of a bodily output that contains the virus) is likely needed to spread that virus; as that’s how it’s spread from animal to human so far. TL;DR: I could be wrong; but I don’t believe it’s capable of a pandemic yet. Science has not yet presented enough strong evidence that this is spreading from person to person. I welcome any citations to prove that wrong however. Thankfully I’m not conservative, and do welcome being shown that my suppositions are indeed wrong; as long as it’s done respectfully.
This goes beyond “show you sources” to “you need classes in genetics, microbiology, organic evolution, and maybe statistics”. For what it’s worth, I’m an educated and experienced microbiologist with experience in public health. I’m not sure how to cite what’s effectively a semester of college education and four textbooks into one comment. I can explain the basics and you can verify details if you’d like. I am more than happy to answer questions and point you towards where you might find more information on specific topics but citations for all of this would be a huge endeavor.
There are two main reasons H5N1 isn’t human-to-human: specificity and, by its effect, low transmission. I’ll try to keep this super high level.
Regarding specificity, viruses don’t infect cells at random. Instead, there’s basically a “lock and key” effect where the virus attaches to an external component (receptor) of the soon-to-be infected cell, then it releases its genetic payload. Much like how it’s pretty easy to pick most locks, it doesn’t need to be a perfect match, just close enough to get the job done.
This is how you get some splash over between species, as there’s variation in both the virus and potential receptors due to mutation, and through random chance you might get a good enough match. The more exposure a virus has to potential receptors, the more likely it is that this will happen. If it happens, the particular mutation making this possible will be selected for in that individual or population, creating many more copies of a mutation that otherwise may have just died out. This is exactly what happens when a human gets infected with a zoonotic virus.
Next we have transmission. Not all cells in the human body have the same receptors, so viruses can infect different parts of the body. This is partly why people get “head colds” and “stomach bugs” - that’s the region with the most cells with the target receptor. H5N1 isn’t particularly good at infecting human airway cells, so infected humans are fairly well dead ends as this blocks airborne transmission, its primary mode of spread.
Currently, H5N1 is one point mutation, vastly the most common type of mutation, away from switching specificity to humans and infecting our airways. This is incredibly small and viruses churn out point mutations like crazy. Every time some dingus swills down raw milk, we’re rolling evolution’s random chance mutation dice. If just one virion has that single mutation and successfully infects that moron’s airway, it’s game on for a potential new pandemic. Evolution is just a numbers game and the more chances you give it, the more likely it is to happen.
The conservatives clearly wish to be left alone in their stupidity
No, no they do not. They feel compelled to force their stupidity on everyone. I guarantee you, there will be bills brought to the floor that require raw milk to be served at elementary schools.
there will be bills brought to the floor that require raw milk to be served at elementary schools.
So prove that is what they are doing. Otherwise your argument is just pure hyperbole. I get that conservatives are dangerously stupid; but don’t spread falsehoods; that’s how they get a turn at the stump to convince more people to join their stupid cause.
I didn’t say they are doing it, I said they will. It’s a prediction of the future based on past behavior. Only time will tell if my prediction is correct.
I also suspect that the bird flu (H5N1) is not (as of yet, at the time this post was written…) likely to mutate to spread in a human-to-human context.
If you are infected with multiple flu strains at the same time, the viruses can recombine and yield a new strain. That is substantially more chance to get a human-to-human transmissible H5N1 than just by mutation alone (which is still something that should not be underestimated - flu mutates like crazy). There is a reason why virologists warn about H5N1 as the likely candidate for the next pandemic.
Just because it can, does not mean it will. I’ve yet to see any hard evidence of probabilities either; but I welcome any evidence one might present to that effect. I am always skeptical of science news reporting; as oftentimes they blow things out of proportion.
They’ve done it before, they’ll do it again. Just give it time and with abundance of idiots helping it along, soon the Maga bird flu will be the hot new COVID.
If they want to drink raw milk and cough their lungs out; I am not going to stop them. The conservatives clearly wish to be left alone in their stupidity and lack of education, and we can’t force them to pursue knowledge.
I also suspect that the bird flu (H5N1) is not (as of yet, at the time this post was written…) likely to mutate to spread in a human-to-human context. It’s not impossible for it to do so though…but the mutation(s) have not yet reached a point where humans can pass it on to each other by breathing the same air; I would guess that a significant contact (Like breathing, eating or touching a very very very large amount of a bodily output that contains the virus) is likely needed to spread that virus; as that’s how it’s spread from animal to human so far. TL;DR: I could be wrong; but I don’t believe it’s capable of a pandemic yet. Science has not yet presented enough strong evidence that this is spreading from person to person. I welcome any citations to prove that wrong however. Thankfully I’m not conservative, and do welcome being shown that my suppositions are indeed wrong; as long as it’s done respectfully.
This goes beyond “show you sources” to “you need classes in genetics, microbiology, organic evolution, and maybe statistics”. For what it’s worth, I’m an educated and experienced microbiologist with experience in public health. I’m not sure how to cite what’s effectively a semester of college education and four textbooks into one comment. I can explain the basics and you can verify details if you’d like. I am more than happy to answer questions and point you towards where you might find more information on specific topics but citations for all of this would be a huge endeavor.
There are two main reasons H5N1 isn’t human-to-human: specificity and, by its effect, low transmission. I’ll try to keep this super high level.
Regarding specificity, viruses don’t infect cells at random. Instead, there’s basically a “lock and key” effect where the virus attaches to an external component (receptor) of the soon-to-be infected cell, then it releases its genetic payload. Much like how it’s pretty easy to pick most locks, it doesn’t need to be a perfect match, just close enough to get the job done.
This is how you get some splash over between species, as there’s variation in both the virus and potential receptors due to mutation, and through random chance you might get a good enough match. The more exposure a virus has to potential receptors, the more likely it is that this will happen. If it happens, the particular mutation making this possible will be selected for in that individual or population, creating many more copies of a mutation that otherwise may have just died out. This is exactly what happens when a human gets infected with a zoonotic virus.
Next we have transmission. Not all cells in the human body have the same receptors, so viruses can infect different parts of the body. This is partly why people get “head colds” and “stomach bugs” - that’s the region with the most cells with the target receptor. H5N1 isn’t particularly good at infecting human airway cells, so infected humans are fairly well dead ends as this blocks airborne transmission, its primary mode of spread.
Currently, H5N1 is one point mutation, vastly the most common type of mutation, away from switching specificity to humans and infecting our airways. This is incredibly small and viruses churn out point mutations like crazy. Every time some dingus swills down raw milk, we’re rolling evolution’s random chance mutation dice. If just one virion has that single mutation and successfully infects that moron’s airway, it’s game on for a potential new pandemic. Evolution is just a numbers game and the more chances you give it, the more likely it is to happen.
No, no they do not. They feel compelled to force their stupidity on everyone. I guarantee you, there will be bills brought to the floor that require raw milk to be served at elementary schools.
So prove that is what they are doing. Otherwise your argument is just pure hyperbole. I get that conservatives are dangerously stupid; but don’t spread falsehoods; that’s how they get a turn at the stump to convince more people to join their stupid cause.
Prove that there will be bills brought to the floor?
Are you aware of the concept of cause and effect? Or maybe you have a time machine or something?
I didn’t say they are doing it, I said they will. It’s a prediction of the future based on past behavior. Only time will tell if my prediction is correct.
If you are infected with multiple flu strains at the same time, the viruses can recombine and yield a new strain. That is substantially more chance to get a human-to-human transmissible H5N1 than just by mutation alone (which is still something that should not be underestimated - flu mutates like crazy). There is a reason why virologists warn about H5N1 as the likely candidate for the next pandemic.
Just because it can, does not mean it will. I’ve yet to see any hard evidence of probabilities either; but I welcome any evidence one might present to that effect. I am always skeptical of science news reporting; as oftentimes they blow things out of proportion.
Just because my house can burn down, doesn’t mean it will, so fire extinguishers and smoke detectors are just a waste of money.
Is the probability zero?
No?
Then if enough people get infected, it absolutely will.
H5N1 isn’t going to be the last virus. The next time they cough their lungs out, it could be contagious.
They’ve done it before, they’ll do it again. Just give it time and with abundance of idiots helping it along, soon the Maga bird flu will be the hot new COVID.