• mipadaitu@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    384
    ·
    6 months ago

    Polls don’t matter, especially this far out.

    Vote. Put pressure on politicians to do better. But more than anything. Vote.

    If the polls say he’s 100% going to win. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes blue every time for the last 100 years. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes red every time for the last 100 years. Vote.

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      80
      ·
      6 months ago

      Polls always matter, you just have to understand polls.

      This is with third party options and show Biden up 2% which is probably close to margin of error.

      It doesn’t mean Biden has it in the bag, but it means his chances are improved.

      But Biden risks the same dangers Hillary did in 2016.

      People don’t really want to vote for them, they just don’t want trump. So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.

      It’s a dangerous game, and we wouldn’t have to play it if we ran a candidate popular with Dem voters.

      • bolexforsoup@lemmy.blahaj.zone
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        63
        ·
        6 months ago

        The margin of error for polls six months out from election, if memory serves, is about 14%.

        I think people are phrasing this wrong: it’s not that the polls are worthless, it’s that it does not tell you what’s going to happen on Election Day in any real sense. They’re useful for watching trends and gauging short term changes and impact. They are useful for telling you how things are going. They do not tell you anything remotely useful about how things will be.

        • Wrench@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          7
          ·
          edit-2
          6 months ago

          Nor are they even remotely reliable to gauge things in the short term.

          The methodology of collecting this data can be so heavily bias that the pollers can get whatever result they’re looking for, if they’re pursuing a narrative. I could write a poll that leads the poll takers to just about any desired conclusion by choosing very targeted questions with bad faith multiple choice options, and by conducting the polls targeting specific demographics. It’s a trivial thing to do.

          Instead, you have to deep dive into the polling methodology, have a deep understanding of the quality of the poll operators, etc, to have any idea of if the poll was even trustworthy.

          I, for one, dismiss polls entirely. There is too much disinformation, too many bad actors, whose entire goal is to “prove” their own biases in favor of their narrative, that the amount of shit buries the truth. So it seems a pointless exercise to sift through the shit to find the nuggets of truth, particularly when good faith polling isn’t at all reliable in the first place.

          • KevonLooney@lemm.ee
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            6 months ago

            Exactly, also the expert in the article says basically the same thing in more diplomatic language:

            However, speaking to Newsweek Todd Landman, a professor of political science at Nottingham University in the U.K., said it was “still too far out from the election” to read much into swing state polls.

            He said: “The race remains highly volatile, and it is still too far out from the election to make any firm conclusion from changing polls across these swing states.”

          • bolexforsoup@lemmy.blahaj.zone
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            edit-2
            6 months ago

            I mean Larry sabato just cited this stat days ago but I’m sure you’ll say he knows nothing.

            You can average the top performing polls to get this.

            • frog_brawler@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              1
              ·
              6 months ago

              Math is math. In order to calculate the margin of error you need to know the sample size. The number of months involved is not a part of the calculation.

              • bolexforsoup@lemmy.blahaj.zone
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                edit-2
                6 months ago

                Then it’s not margin of error, the predictive accuracy - whatever the term is - is far worse 6mo out from an election (5 now i guess) than the ones that are days or a week or so out. That’s the point. Polls now are useful but not for saying who will win in November. You may as well forget the top line numbers as soon as you see them unless you’re comparing them over time and/or looking at cross tabs for broad demographic trends, which is also limited but useful in some ways.

                • frog_brawler@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  1
                  ·
                  6 months ago

                  Fair enough… if we both agree that “margin of error” has nothing to do with number of months; I have no argument.

          • Guy_Fieris_Hair@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            6 months ago

            “Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love” old people (Republicans) vote, always, because they are retired. Democrats work and need to go out of their way to vote, so you have to convince them.

      • TachyonTele@lemm.ee
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        edit-2
        6 months ago

        Whoever on your account team wrote this one is funny. They’re right. But I love how they wrote that Biden will poll well, when the other guy has been spending weeks saying how bad he’s doing.

        Consistency my guys. Get your stories straight. Especially if you’re going to comment walls of text multiple times every hour every day. Don’t make it so obvious.

      • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        6 months ago

        So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.

        That’s largely how Romney lost to Obama in 2012. Republican turnout sagged in a year when both candidates’ approval ratings were underwater. Mitt lost a bunch of midwestern states that a candidate like Bush or Trump could have won, thanks to his vulture capitalist career alienating blue-collar conservatives and his weird knock-off religion alienating evangelicals.

    • shalafi@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      48
      ·
      6 months ago

      I see people saying their vote doesn’t matter when they’re in a highly partisan district, which is most of them.

      News flash: Even the dumbest politicians can look at arithmetic. If they see their margins shrinking, they’ll adjust. Or go full retard and double-down. And then get a worse beating.

      • Julian@lemm.ee
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        46
        ·
        6 months ago

        Also local elections can be decided by one vote and can be just as important.

        • Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          16
          ·
          6 months ago

          Typically more important for the average citizen. Federal changes may effect you in years, decades or never. Whereas your local politicians impact your day to day life.

          • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            6 months ago

            After trading leads several times, Simitian and Low each finished with 30,249 votes in the original tally, which was finalized earlier this month, shortly before the recount began. Liccardo finished with 38,489 votes, well ahead of the other two candidates.

            So the two runners-up were competing for who gets to lose in a run-off election?

            The attacks reached a fever pitch late last month, when a local prosecutor filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging that Liccardo’s campaign illegally coordinated with “a newly formed dark money Super PAC to do his CD-16 recount bidding.”

            :-/ It’s not the votes that count, but who counts the votes.

      • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        4
        ·
        6 months ago

        I see people saying their vote doesn’t matter when they’re in a highly partisan district

        I see people saying it when they’re in heavily gerrymandered districts and deeply disenfranchised states. Dems have been playing the “Just go out and vote!” game in Florida for a quarter century, and Repubs keep finding new ways to yank the football. Even ballot initiatives don’t work, as the Florida gerrymandered legislature just reverses out whatever voting rights or decriminalization laws the public passes.

        • CileTheSane@lemmy.ca
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          6 months ago

          Okay, then protest. And also VOTE.

          Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything” is just allowing them to dictate everything that will happen.

          • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            edit-2
            6 months ago

            Okay, then protest.

            Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything”

            Studying the history of the electoral system and the patterns of disenfranchisement isn’t equivalent to “doing nothing”. And in the end, you have to be rational rather than idealistic. When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.

            • CileTheSane@lemmy.ca
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              2
              ·
              6 months ago

              When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.

              Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest. You have politicians that you admit want to become the next Putin but won’t say anything or of fear of pepper spray.

              There’s an internet meme about France surrendering. French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets. American politicians try to take away your democracy and American citizens just roll over to expose their belly.
              It’s not the French that surrender at the slightest bit of difficulty.

              • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                2
                ·
                6 months ago

                Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest.

                So do American college kids.

                French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets.

                French politicians have been squeezing the pension system since at least 2006, and the street protests have come and gone without discouraging new efforts to dismantle the system.

                Bully to them for trying, but without material control over industry, they’re all sound and fury.

      • Semi-Hemi-Lemmygod@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        6 months ago

        I’ve been voting for 24 years and have never seen this happen. They double down and that gets their voters even more fired up to vote.

    • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      13
      ·
      6 months ago

      Well said. People also need to take steps to ensure they have not been kicked off of voter rolls (the Republican dirty tricks just never end). I think sites like vote.org can help with that.

    • Maggoty@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      9
      ·
      edit-2
      6 months ago

      I’m not going to vote for Biden until he stops funding a genocide. You cannot say put pressure on them and vote for them no matter what. They do not give a fuck what you think if you’re going to automatically vote for them. That’s why the uncommitted votes in the primaries scared them so much.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          9
          ·
          6 months ago

          Oh no, you’re only the thousandth person to tell me that. It’s so persuasive. Either I vote for the guy funding a genocide or the Boogeyman gets elected1!!111!!1

          • cowfodder@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            18
            ·
            6 months ago

            Vote for the guy that’s unfortunately not willing to break with decades worth of support for Israel or the guy who’s said he’d send in ground troops wins.

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              4
              ·
              6 months ago

              There is actually a third option this time around, not that he’s any better with bird flu on the way. But no it’s never an either/or proposition. You are in fact allowed to leave that spot on the ballot blank.

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  ·
                  6 months ago

                  Yet another fallacy meant to coerce votes for bad candidates. I’m not politically disengaged. This is a political choice.

              • samus12345@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                4
                ·
                6 months ago

                As long as you’re voting on everything else on the ballot, fair enough. Also, I’m hoping you don’t live in a battleground state.

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  ·
                  6 months ago

                  Oh yeah. It doesn’t work if you don’t vote at all. They have to know they left those votes behind.

          • samus12345@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            18
            ·
            edit-2
            6 months ago

            Yes, that’s the reality of the situation, whether you like it or not. If you don’t care if that happens, fair enough. But don’t try to say that not voting for Biden doesn’t help Trump.

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              9
              ·
              edit-2
              6 months ago

              I didn’t say that. I said that at this point, months into this debacle, it’s obviously not persuasive to me. I am not willing to sell the lives of Palestinian children to make my life marginally more comfortable.

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  5
                  ·
                  edit-2
                  6 months ago

                  You can’t get extra dead. Here’s the IPC’s take on Gaza right now-

                  The famine threshold for household acute food insecurity has already been far exceeded and, given the latest data showing a steeply increasing trend in cases of acute malnutrition, it is highly likely that the famine threshold for acute malnutrition has also been exceeded. The upward trend in non-trauma mortality is also expected to accelerate, resulting in all famine thresholds likely to be passed imminently.

                  Those kids aren’t going to be alive in November.

              • samus12345@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                11
                ·
                edit-2
                6 months ago

                Those children will die regardless of who you vote for or if you don’t vote at all. It’s a horrific tragedy that is completely out of anyone who isn’t in power’s control. So instead of worrying about that, worry about what you CAN control - preventing fascists from gaining more power and making things even worse than they already are.

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  3
                  ·
                  6 months ago

                  No a tragedy is a plane crash. A tragedy is a tornado directly hitting the school gym everyone sheltered in.

                  This is a war crime, a massacre, an act so vile that civilized countries have agreed it should not be done, ever.

                  And we do not have to be complicit.

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  ·
                  6 months ago

                  I bet you don’t know who I am, what I went to college for, or where I was before college. Because you’re very wrong.

                  • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    1
                    ·
                    6 months ago

                    I’ll bet I know what you don’t know. And that’s where Palestine was on the map prior to October 7th.

              • Passerby6497@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                12
                ·
                6 months ago

                So do you plan on doing anything about it, or just going to pout about it and feel good about not voting when those people get bombed harder?

                This is just virtue signaling. If you cared about the people you’d want to reduce the harm they’re facing, not try to moralize your bad choice on the Internet.

                • PopOfAfrica@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  5
                  ·
                  edit-2
                  6 months ago

                  This is a two-way street though. You’d think the democratic establishment would also want to increase their electoral odds in order to reduce harm.

                  Like, the stakes are so high, and it’s so weird to see them betting the horse on Israel. It’s frankly irresponsible for Democrats to be playing politics like that at a time like this.

                  • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    3
                    ·
                    6 months ago

                    They’re not betting the house on Israel. They’re hedging. They increased aid to Palestine, they delayed arms shipments, and they’ve been pursuing a ceasefire deal like their lives depended on it.

                    You want them to bet the house on Palestine.

                • TheHiddenCatboy@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  3
                  ·
                  6 months ago

                  On top of this, you have the bigger picture. What will happen if Trump wins?

                  • It will get harder to go to college, as Trump works to gut Pell Grants and cap Stafford Loans.
                  • If you have gone to college, it will get harder as Trump will increase the monthly amount you have to pay and not reward you for going into lower-paying public service jobs.
                  • Gay marriage will be put on the chopping block.
                  • Laws stopping discrimination against Gays and Minorities will be repealed and/or not enforced.

                  This is just the most benign parts of Project 2025. It gets worse from there.

                  So, on top of more people dying, we’ll suffer here at home because of idiots like Maggoty here.

                  • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    ·
                    6 months ago

                    Sure, but I don’t even want to get into all that. They’ll just pivot back to the stupid “genocide Joe” bullshit. I want to pin em down on that, because even THAT makes no goddamn sense.

                  • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    ·
                    6 months ago

                    You think that, under Biden, literally every single Palestinian will die?

                    Because that’s what Trump has said he wants.

          • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            8
            ·
            6 months ago

            That you think everyone here lacks intelligence enough to fall for that nonsense speaks volumes about your own.

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              4
              ·
              6 months ago

              No I think you’re just being willfully ignorant because it’s easier and those dead kids are over there.

              • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                2
                ·
                6 months ago

                Right… the dead kids. The perfect hot button rhetoric to swing around when you want to really drive the point home that “biDeN bAaAD!!”

                You’re seemingly as textbook as one could be.

      • Starkstruck@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        11
        ·
        6 months ago

        Cause letting the guy who wants to send in the us military to “wipe em all out” win is waaaaay better for those people you pretend to care about.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          3
          ·
          6 months ago

          Hilariously that would give them more access to aid than Israel is giving them. Trump wouldn’t be able to stop the US military from distributing aid as part of its normal operations mode. As usual he has no clue how the military works.

          • braxy29@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            6
            ·
            6 months ago

            dafuq kinda nonsense is this? lesse, a president who supports wiping out Palestinians is better for Palestinians because then they get more aid?

            ???

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          3
          ·
          6 months ago

          Oh look, another original take. You’re only the (checks notes) hundredth comment attempting to gaslight me into thinking I’m a trump supporter because I’m not blindly loyal to Biden. Not even the Democrats, Just Biden. And you guys accuse Trump supporters of being a cult.

          • JimSamtanko@lemm.ee
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            6 months ago

            Hmm… when 99 people in a room full of a hundred people suggest something-

            Maybe it’s best to not believe that one dude that disagrees with them.

            Spades are sometimes just spades. Regardless if they tell you they’re not.

      • PopOfAfrica@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        6
        ·
        6 months ago

        Classic Lemmy. They’re quicker to blame you than they are Biden for bad policy.

        A true optimist would suggest that Joe Biden could absolutely reverse course. It’s like they’ve all given up on that possibility.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          5
          ·
          6 months ago

          Pretty much. I’m open about the fact that I would vote for him if he reversed course. Nope, still just shouting at me and calling me a trump supporter.

      • Wiz@midwest.social
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        3
        ·
        6 months ago

        Mathematically, either Biden or Trump will win, with 100% certainty.

        As lamentable as it is for Palestinians, you drawing the line in the sand over foreign policy in Palestine & Israel will not help Palestinians. I would even go as far to say that Biden’s policy on Israel is marginally better than what Trump’s would be. The GOP is actively hostile against Palestine. At least with Biden we are getting (gentle) push-back on Israel.

        So, if it’s a given that either Biden or Trump will win, you have one of four options, depending on your political leaning:

        1. Liberal and vote for Biden. Helps Biden.
        2. Conservative and vote for Trump. Helps Trump.
        3. Liberal and don’t vote for Biden. Helps Trump.
        4. Conservative and don’t vote for Trump. Helps Biden.

        I don’t see any other option, but if someone has one - one that helps Palestine - I’d be interested to hear option 5.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          6 months ago

          If the choice is genocide or genocide then it’s not a real choice and this election is not legitimate.

          • Wiz@midwest.social
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            edit-2
            6 months ago

            In spite of you saying it’s not a real choice, you seem to be choosing #3 or #4.

            Bold choice. We’ll see how it goes.

              • Wiz@midwest.social
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                6 months ago

                It is my categorization. But it’s a logical framing.

                I’d be interested to hear if there are any other logical possibilities outside the four I named.

                You might be making an illogical choice, and that’s ok. It is you, and you can make your own choice.

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  1
                  ·
                  6 months ago

                  The democratic party realizes it’s losing voters instead of gaining them and reverses course. And yes that requires being willing to carry out the threat of not voting for Biden in November.

                  • Wiz@midwest.social
                    link
                    fedilink
                    English
                    arrow-up
                    1
                    ·
                    6 months ago

                    You base all your facts on feels, dontcha?

                    I won’t be responding any more to you, since you are an untrustworthy interlocutor. And I mean that!

      • samus12345@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        16
        ·
        edit-2
        6 months ago

        Don’t vote and help their much worse fascist opponents get elected instead, which will affect the general population, not the wealthy elites. That’ll teach them!

          • samus12345@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            9
            ·
            6 months ago

            You’re correct. But they get fucked much harder one way than the other. It’s all about harm reduction.

            • anticolonialist@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              4
              ·
              6 months ago

              Harm reduction is a myth, people have been preaching harm reduction for decades and there’s been no reduction in harm. Quite the opposite, poverty has increased. Homelessness is at a rate not seen since the Great depression, income inequality is the highest ever recorded. The most percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck is higher than any other level recorded. There has been no reduction in harm.

              • Gigasser@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                3
                ·
                6 months ago

                Wasn’t homelessness during the great depression roughly at a percentage rate of 1.5% of the nation (upwards of 2 million people)? Are you sure we have a homeless rate not seen since the great depression? As for all the other stuff…yeah that’s pretty bad, especially the income inequality over the decades and decades.

                • anticolonialist@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  ·
                  6 months ago

                  Let’s see. The government tells us that poverty is trending down for decades, yet the number of people living paycheck to paycheck has been increasing. The number of renters that cannot afford their rent has been increasing, homelessness is at the largest level ever recorded, but the claim is poverty is decreasing. Have you ever stopped to consider? Maybe they are lying?

                  • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    2
                    ·
                    6 months ago

                    More damn lies.

                    yet the number of people living paycheck to paycheck has been increasing

                    No it’s not.

                    The number of renters that cannot afford their rent has been increasing

                    No it’s not.

                    homelessness is at the largest level ever recorded

                    Not even close.

                    You got any sources for your bullshit, other than “my ass”?

    • tacosplease@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      5
      ·
      6 months ago

      And VOTE DOWN BALLOT. If Democrats voted down ballot as frequently as Republicans do, the Republicans would lose House and Senate by a wide margin.