I did a two-year post-doc in a climate modeling lab at a major research university studying exactly this proposal. I have peer-reviewed publications on it. I cannot overstate what a bad idea it is. It would kill–at minimum–tens of millions of people, and set off the worst refugee crisis the world has ever seen as global precipitation patterns shifted–and those are the effects we know about. Once we start it, we will have to run it indefinitely or incur absolutely apocalyptic snap-back temperature increases.
Still, I will be absolutely flabbergasted if we don’t implement this sometime in the next 15 years. It’s cheap, effective at controlling temperature increases, and will let us continue to kick the can down the road for meaningful climate action.
Primarily precipitation pattern shifts. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is highly likely to result in less precipitation falling globally overall, but it’s really the distribution that’s worrying. Our natural model for this–the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the 1990s–caused an almost perfect inversion of global precipitation patterns: places that usually get a lot of rain turned dry, and places that are usually dry got a lot of rain. The effect was detectable for more than two years, and appeared and disappeared right along with the temperature reduction signal.
Here’s the precipitation anomaly and Palmer Drought Severity index data for 1991 and 1992, immediately after the eruption. Warmer colors mean less water:
Computational modeling of SAI has indicated that this was not a fluke, and that the degree of change will likely increase with more aerosols in the stratosphere. Both elements of the switch are bad: if you’re used to dry conditions, excess precipitation brings flash flooding, erosion, and mudslides. If you’re used to rainy conditions, a lack of precipitation brings drought, famine, and fire. SE Asia–and other places that rely on a stable seasonal monsoon–are likely to be especially hard hit, and we have every indication that the shift would be permanent for as long as we kept up SAI. That’s why I said it would set off the worst refugee crisis in the world’s history.
Do you have sources to read about this? I’m very curious about it having seen it bought up over and over again. Always thought that it was gonna blowback on us bad even if it bought some time
Would it be rude to ask for am article to read about this? Or an effort post if that works better for you. I knew this was considered to be a bad idea but I never saw any hard details
Pah, scientists. Always so pessimistic. Do you remember what they said about Corona and masking? And it wasn’t so bad at all, barely a cold. Few million old, poor people died but look at the economy!
I did a two-year post-doc in a climate modeling lab at a major research university studying exactly this proposal. I have peer-reviewed publications on it. I cannot overstate what a bad idea it is. It would kill–at minimum–tens of millions of people, and set off the worst refugee crisis the world has ever seen as global precipitation patterns shifted–and those are the effects we know about. Once we start it, we will have to run it indefinitely or incur absolutely apocalyptic snap-back temperature increases.
Still, I will be absolutely flabbergasted if we don’t implement this sometime in the next 15 years. It’s cheap, effective at controlling temperature increases, and will let us continue to kick the can down the road for meaningful climate action.
Ah but have you considered I still want my funkopops delivered with same day amazon delivery
What is the mechanism for this?
Primarily precipitation pattern shifts. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is highly likely to result in less precipitation falling globally overall, but it’s really the distribution that’s worrying. Our natural model for this–the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the 1990s–caused an almost perfect inversion of global precipitation patterns: places that usually get a lot of rain turned dry, and places that are usually dry got a lot of rain. The effect was detectable for more than two years, and appeared and disappeared right along with the temperature reduction signal.
Here’s the precipitation anomaly and Palmer Drought Severity index data for 1991 and 1992, immediately after the eruption. Warmer colors mean less water:
Computational modeling of SAI has indicated that this was not a fluke, and that the degree of change will likely increase with more aerosols in the stratosphere. Both elements of the switch are bad: if you’re used to dry conditions, excess precipitation brings flash flooding, erosion, and mudslides. If you’re used to rainy conditions, a lack of precipitation brings drought, famine, and fire. SE Asia–and other places that rely on a stable seasonal monsoon–are likely to be especially hard hit, and we have every indication that the shift would be permanent for as long as we kept up SAI. That’s why I said it would set off the worst refugee crisis in the world’s history.
Ah that’s horrifying, I never appreciated this aspect of geo-engineering
Do you have sources to read about this? I’m very curious about it having seen it bought up over and over again. Always thought that it was gonna blowback on us bad even if it bought some time
Yeah, I’ll put together an effort post tomorrow.
👏
Would it be rude to ask for am article to read about this? Or an effort post if that works better for you. I knew this was considered to be a bad idea but I never saw any hard details
I’d prefer not to dox myself directly, but I can certainly put together an effort post tomorrow.
Pah, scientists. Always so pessimistic. Do you remember what they said about Corona and masking? And it wasn’t so bad at all, barely a cold. Few million old, poor people died but look at the economy!
Who needs blue skies