- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmit.online
- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmit.online
London’s murder rate has dropped to its lowest in more than a decade with police in the capital and the mayor saying it is now one of the safest cities in the western world.
And still the fascists will claim that the country is on fire and needs to be cleansed of all immigrants. Crime rates have been dropping all over Europe for decades despite increased immigration, but still right wing parties are rising everywhere.
Faschists might be the reason crime rates go up…
One counter example: Germany 2023.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-violent-crime-reaches-15-year-high-report/a-68758122
Ah yes, thats how statistics work. You cherry pick a single year to pretend that a general trend, going on for over 50x of that time frame, doesnt exist.
You are demonstrating how the far right fearmongers so well. Picking one single statistic and spread it without necessary context and overblowing its relevance. That’s Blöd-Zeitung’s level.
Highlights, from the EU, so not just Germany:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Crime_statistics
The overall trend was declining so far but it could be that we have reached the bottom. I haven’t said that the trend is wrong. I actually stressed that it is one counter example.
As you write, that doesn’t mean that the trend is wrong but we also can’t assume that everything is still alright without making sure that it is.
Again, there is missing a lot. A breakdown for countries, some context for victims (femicides in family context are mentioned, but not a lot more), motivation for property related crimes etc.
The problem is, conveying this kind of context is a complex task while it is very easy to oversimplify and overexaggerate cherrypicked statistics that fit a certain narrative, and right wing populists are exceptionally good at riling up the populace with the latter.
I agree with the worries, but by the same logic the number from the headline should also be treated as an outlier.
This is a setup for failure. If the numbers are not dropping anymore and the left wing is not ready to acknowledge it then they can’t understand why right wing parties are rising. It’s not all just fearmongering that convinces people to vote for the right wing.
If the only information we had, yes. We do have mire context though. We do have a specific place and the article gives additional information about the long term trends over decades. That is the relevant context.
If, if, if. If the numbers are not dropping anymore, we need more context, yes. For example, we need to look at the development of factors known to influence criminal behavior, like poverty rates, crisis situations, existential worries etc. Rhat is exactly my point the whole time, ffs.
Also I don’t know what you want to insinuate about the left wing now? At least here in Germany, Die Linke is the only party actually wanting to address issues that contribute to the decision towards criminal activities, like housing crisis, rising cost of living, etc.
Why do you think that is what I said? I didn’t state anything alike. It’s just the factor we’re discussing.
I was talking about the sentence that I quoted.
In general I agree with you and I agree with the trend. However, my opinion is that the AfD and other parties wouldn’t be successful if the established parties had acknowledged the outliers.
The sentence you quoted basically says that crime rates are not the reason for the rise of right wing parties. Nothing about fearmongering, that was my point.
And how do you think those outliers should have been acknowledged? Outliers are a regular occurence in statistics. Any acknowledgment that goes beyond “Yeah, that’s strange, however this is just an outlier at the moment, nothing to worry about yet” at the first sight of such an outlier is an overreaction. The far right overreacts (and I accuse them of doing so knowingly) by erecting bogeymen and accusing others of not acknowledging a statistic outlier by not overreacting. Combine that with conservative and neoliberal politics that did not appropriately react to actual crises, continue to exacerbate the living conditions for working class citizens, amplify precarious situations and play the same bogeymen as the far right and you have a nice boost in popularity for the far right. A media landscape that on one hand supports far right narratives and on the other hand fails to contextualize news and politicians’ outputs also helps a lot.
There will always be outliers on these trends. One high year in the middle of a 20 year decline doesn’t break the trend.