(credit to RomCom1989 for the title)
Image is of an Iranian soldier exulting in the launch of a ballistic missile aimed towards the imperialists.
short summary this week: US doing pretty bad and Iran doing pretty good all things considered, Strait of Hormuz is closed and will almost certainly remain so until the end of the war, Trump has no idea what to do, global economic crisis from strait closure is basically guaranteed at this point but who will ultimately benefit most and who will ultimately lose most is still up in the air.
longish summary is below in the spoiler tags
longish summary
While there are still major debates raging about how badly things are actually going right now and what the post-conflict map may look like, as we blaze past the two week mark on this conflict, it’s becoming ever more obvious to almost everybody involved that this war is not going according to plan, if there ever was one. US airstrikes are, from what I can best determine, still mostly done with relatively less powerful (but still very dangerous!) and much less plentiful standoff munitions launched from bombers, though certain border and coastal areas are being struck with more powerful and more plentiful short-range guided bombs. This indicates that Iranian air defense is still sufficiently functional throughout most of Iran that the kinds of true carpet bombing done against Korea and Vietnam in the past (and Gaza very recently) is still too risky, though their airspace is still very much under assault, as we appear to have images of small groups of Western fighters breaching relatively deep into the country. Under some kind of Iranian pressure (drones? missiles? speedboats?) one aircraft carrier has retreated to a thousand kilometers from Iran, hiding behind the mountains of Oman; the other is sitting in the Red Sea, rather pointedly out of range of Yemen. As such, the ranges that Western aircraft must travel to bombard Iran is increasing, which reduces their frequency and increases strain on maintenance and logistics in the medium and long term.
While there is tons to say about the current social, economic, and military state of Iran, I don’t think I have a reliable enough picture to give a good summary beyond “they aren’t close to defeat or regime change”. What has instead captured much of the world’s attention is the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inspired some of the most delusional statements I have seen so far in my life, which is sincerely a profound achievement. For those out of the loop: the strait is currently closed to all shipping except those going to very particular countries (I’ve seen China and Bangladesh mentioned, and apparently India is in the process of working something out and may succeed or fail). This is because most ships are not risking the trip due to the ~20 tankers and container ships that Iran has already struck and disabled in the strait and in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the threat from Iran’s military to Navy ships is such that attempting to create a convoy to guide tankers through it is suicidal to both the Navy and merchant ships. Right now it cannot be done, and it very well might be the case that it could never be done, simply due to the combination of Iran’s naval forces (hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed, specialized speedboats designed for exactly this purpose), their drones (in the tens of thousands), their torpedoes, and if all else fails, their naval mines.
The Western reaction to this has been so moronic that it has almost integer underflowed into being philosophical: what does it truly mean for a passage to be “closed”? Has Iran truly “closed” the strait, or is the risk of traversing it simply too high for these cowardly sailors (who, for some strange reason, seem to care about their “lives” and “families”)? How is it possible for Iran to have closed the strait if, according to the West, Iran’s military has been totally obliterated? All these questions and more plague the minds of those who cannot accept the now-proven fact that there are indeed military forces on this planet that the US Navy with all its aircraft carriers and destroyers and submarines cannot defeat; and one of those minds is, rather hilariously, Trump himself. His thrice-daily positive affirmations that Iran has been defeated are taking on an increasingly deranged and almost pitiable tone; the lamentations of a man who has finally found a situation where him merely stating that something is true is insufficient to change the situation one iota. Despite stating that some kind of naval compact or alliance is being established to protect shipping, every Western country so far - from the UK, to France, to Japan, to Australia - has publicly stated that they will not risk their ships to do so. All this as the continued blockade yet further guarantees a worldwide energy, production, transportation, and food crisis that will have major global ramifications for at least the rest of the decade and almost certainly beyond.
If the anti-imperialists play their cards right, the US could lose much from this crisis, and others, like China and Russia, could gain a great deal. To quote Nia Frome (co-founder of Red Sails): “An effective Marxist has to be enough of an accelerationist/pervert to treat the obviously bad things that are going to happen as the political opportunities they are.”
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I’m not sure if it’s been posted yet, but it seems that democratic NATO “socialist” and Gen Z superstar Kat Abughazaleh ate shit and lost the primary in Illinois.
More images of Controlled Reception Pattern Antennas (CRPA) on Iranian and Iranian allied one way attack drones and cruise missiles. Seems to be the primary way Russia could be helping materially for now.
Israel is about to fell lots of bridges crossing the Litani river in Lebanon soon, within hours. Probable shaping operations for a ground invasion. Anyone with family in South Lebanon, you should be aware of this.
https://xcancel.com/NavyStrang/status/2034034806053605483
Trump says he’s ‘not afraid’ of Vietnam-style ground combat in Iran
Size comparison of Vietnam and Iran. We only had troops in half of Vietnam and peak strength was 580K.
This morning, 220 suitcases filled with medicine left Milan for Cuba.
copy paste from my inbox
Dear Friend,
This morning, 220 suitcases filled with medicine left Milan for Cuba.
Inside them: cancer drugs, antibiotics, pain medication, surgical materials, and treatments for chronic conditions.
They are the first shipment of the Nuestra América Convoy to Cuba – a global mobilisation delivering humanitarian aid to the island as Donald Trump’s illegal siege plunges it into darkness.
More than four tonnes of aid, gathered by the Italian Agency for Cultural Economic Exchange (AICEC) – part of the 20+ tonnes of food, medicines, solar equipment, and humanitarian supplies the Convoy will deliver to Cuba.
These materials will help:
Hospitals keep the lights on during blackouts. Cancer patients continue their life-saving treatments. Children get the vitamins and nutrition they need. Doctors take care of their patients.
All of it was made possible by support from around the world.
Solidarity is now moving – in the form of solar generators, medical supplies, and cancer treatments – toward Havana.
Once there, the aid will be distributed by Cuban civil society organisations, including the Instituto Cubano de Amistad con Los Pueblos (ICAP), and delivered directly to hospitals and clinics across the island.
“I can do anything I want with it,” Donald Trump said of Cuba on 16 March.
The Convoy is our answer.
In the coming days, other delegations from around the world will follow – by air, land and sea.
This is only the beginning. Together, we can break the siege, save lives, and stand up for the cause of Cuban self-determination.
In solidarity,
The Nuestra América Convoy
https://xcancel.com/4wavePepe/status/2033628407108432125
this is what actual national suicide looks like btw
(NSF being the National Science Foundation, which doles out federal funding for R&D)
I had a $600,000 over 5 years NSF Physics grant terminated last year because our grant mentioned “polarization” which was included in the banned terms list. We were discussing the polarization of light. We never got the grant reinstated.
Colleague had one terminated bc it studied ecosystem diversity, as in plants? 🤦♂️
DOGE bros relied on keyword searches to terminate grants and federal jobs, without human research/thought. Similarly, AI without meaningful human oversight will, without doubt, not always produce good results. Regulations and limits are necessary.
https://xcancel.com/NavyStrang/status/2033971275631403143
Remember that USMC artillery shell that everyone very loudly insisted didn’t explode over the 5 Freeway and was just a conspiracy? Well the Marines just released a 600 page report on what caused a shell to explode over the 5 Freeway.
in authoritarian north korea, the military casually fires artillery shells over roads where civilians are driving with no concern for their safety, despite being in a country blessed with massive and varied territory where they could surely find some unpopulated spots to do their exercises in without risking civilian lives
(although technically in this case, the highway had actually, thankfully, been shut down - except the admin whined about how it was totally unnecessary and a political stunt by Newsom, and how there was totally no risk of anything going wrong)
https://xcancel.com/imetatronink/status/2034069456725610565
The USS Poopy Gerry (CVN-78) has completed its traumatic visit to the Red Sea. It will make one last stop at Souda Bay to get some cots for its homeless and bedless crew members, then it will head home to Virginia, where it will no doubt require at least two years to repair and recuperate before its next disaster-filled deployment. The USS Fraidy Abe (CVN-72) is now the only combat-capable US carrier currently at sea — although it remains 1000+ km from the Iranian coast.
But anyways, funny names aside - the US is literally down to ONE active CSG currently (everything else being either in maintenance or training, or heading back home in the Ford’s case)
some more details about the statuses of all the carriers: https://archive.ph/V1ln9
more
- USS Nimitz
- Commissioned: May 1975.
- Status: this is the one that just got its retirement delayed - the Nimitz-class are supposed to have a 50-year service life, and this one will end up having to go another 2 over it
- USS Dwight D. Eisenhower
- Commissioned: October 1977
- Status: Undergoing planned incremental availability maintenance.
- USS Carl Vinson
- Commissioned: March 1982
- Status: Undergoing post-deployment availability.
- USS Theodore Roosevelt
- Commissioned: October 1986
- Status: Undergoing Fleet Replacement Squadron Carrier Qualifications, which trains pilots to transition into combat aircraft they will be flying at sea.
- USS Abraham Lincoln
- Commissioned: November 1989
- Status: Deployed since November 2025, first in the Pacific and then in the Indian Ocean. The Lincoln currently is in the Arabian Sea deployed as part of Operation Epic Fury.
- USS George Washington
- Commissioned: July 1992
- Status: The Navy’s only forward homeported aircraft carrier is finishing in-port maintenance.
- USS John C. Stennis
- Commissioned: December 1995
- Status: Undergoing multiyear midlife Refueling and Complex Overhaul (RCOH) that includes replenishing the two nuclear power plants on a Nimitz-class carrier. Reactors are turned off, and after cooling, rods are removed and replaced with new fuel assemblies. Overhaul of major systems and upgrades to most modern equipment available. Electrical and plumbing systems are updated. Weapons systems, radar, and communications are upgraded.
- USS Harry S. Truman
- Commissioned: July 1998
- Status: Undergoing Planned Incremental Availability. The Truman would be the next carrier to go into multiyear RICOH after Stennis.
- USS Ronald Reagan
- Commissioned: July 2003
- Status: Undergoing planned incremental availability. Currently in dry dock. Work schedule to be completed later this year.
- USS George H. W. Bush
- Commissioned: January 2009
- Status: Finished U.S. Navy Composite Training Unit Exercise, preparing for deployment with a carrier strike group. The George H.W. Bush is preparing for deployment to the Middle East to relieve USS Gerald R. Ford.
- USS Gerald R. Ford
- Commissioned: July 2017
- Status: Deployed for attack on Iran (and now heading back home). The Ford was sent from Venezuela and has now been deployed for nine months (which likely means the eventual maintenance it will have to undergo will be even worse - a previous article which mentioned this)
So now, when the ship comes back, we expected the ship to be in this level of state in which it was used during that seven-month deployment, when it goes eight, nine-plus months, those critical components that we weren’t expecting to repair are now on the table
and the next carrier in production got delayed until 2027 (https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2025-07-08/kennedy-aircraft-carrier-delay-18372497.html)
a comment from this article https://www.twz.com/sea/navy-juggles-its-aircraft-carrier-plans-to-stay-afloat elaborating on this https://www.openweb.com/share/3B6p1h3hJKv8irmnXoj1b8UMTDH
And get ready for this to get much worse from here on out.
The other 9 Nimitz class carriers are all going to hit their 50 year service life mark between now and 2048. That means there will be one being decommissioned roughly every 2.5 years……3 if you want to be generous about how much extra life they’ll be able to squeeze out of them. With there current being a 13 year period from keel laying to operational status for the Ford class ships…….well you can do the math. The Navy can do all the little slight of hand tricks they want to pad the numbers, like “commissioning” the Ford ships when their still have years of work left to achieve operational readiness, or saying they’re “extending” the career of Nimitz another year when it’s never going to deploy again, but sooner or later it’s going to be time to pay the piper. During the debacle of the Ford’s design and construction, their were those of us who said that, if the Navy didn’t course correct in some dramatic way, the future of the carrier fleet was in serious jeopardy. While the rah rah America crowd said that was a bunch of nonsense and the Ford was just having “teething problems” and they’d get it straightened out and produced much faster……As if the Navy was going to magically find a way to cut a 13 year construction period in half. Well that isn’t going to happen and this is merely the first domino to fall. Math always wins.
https://www.openweb.com/share/3B6qIixU41AkKKFN7D4ReEJgnpR
This “life extension” of the Nimitz is nothing but cooking the books to keep with the legal mandate for an 11 carrier fleet. She’s never going to deploy again. It’s like a team down by 28 scoring 2 touchdowns in the last 2 minutes to make the loss look closer than it really was. They did the same shit with the Enterprise when they “deactivated” her in 2012 but didn’t officially decommission her until 5 years later after they’d removed her reactors……which was also the same time the Ford “commissioned” even though she was still 5 years away from deploying. It’s childish as hell in a way. Like a kid trying to change a D to a B on an assignment with a pen to show his parents. As if that somehow magically improves things for real and he won’t just suffer the consequences for his shitty grades at a late date.
so, yeah, great times for the US Navy ahead
> broke: US carrier fleet gets sunk in naval combat
> woke: US carrier fleet gets wiped out by ballistic missiles on day 1 of war against China
> bespoke: US carrier fleet kind of just dies from old age without being in any combat
Imperial power projection is cooked. I guess they’ll be able to keep lobbing JASSMs from strategic bombers flying in from CONUS or European bases for a while longer, to dubious results given that bombing campaigns have literally never actually achieved anything without ground forces in place to take advantage. Except the bomber fleet is also getting long in the tooth, with the bombers being either really old (the B-52s) or really fancy and sophisticated and thus needing lots of maintenance (the B-1, and to an even greater extent the B-2, of which there’s not a lot to begin with). They’ve set a very ambitious procurement target for the new B-21, which I’m highly doubtful is going to be met, given everything else going on in US procurement. So yeah, good news for the world, I guess
- USS Nimitz
deleted by creator
An Israeli airstrike just hit a building in the Bachoura neighborhood of central Beirut. In this video, you can see the entire building collapsing from the strike. While Israeli airstrikes have targeted some buildings in Lebanon’s capital over the past two weeks, they have not collapsed entire buildings before this strike.
You’ll have to scroll. The link doesn’t actually go to the update itself. Idiots.
-–
Edit
Part of a nearby update
The whoosh of a missile cut through the quiet morning before striking a building in central Beirut, shaking nearby structures and rattling windows.
Whoosh? It’s weird to me when everybody involved doesn’t ask themselves the simplest of questions. In this case: “Would we use that word for an explosion in Israel?” Of course the answer is no.
ROME, March 13 (Reuters) - Italian authorities are weighing how to deal with a Russian liquefied natural gas tanker left adrift in the Mediterranean after what Moscow described as a Ukrainian drone attack, sources said on Friday. Russia’s transport ministry said the Arctic Metagaz, carrying LNG from the Arctic port of Murmansk, was attacked last week by Ukrainian naval drones launched from the Libyan coast. Kyiv has not claimed responsibility.
Maybe Europe can solve it’s energy crisis by rescuing the LNG on board the vessel
Cuba has restored electricity across all provinces as of a few hours ago.
The country lives to fight another day - under total siege, but still survivng thanks to the efficient work of the government.
Al Jazeera update
Israel issues new forced displacement order for villages south of the Zahrani River
The Israeli military is ordering residents of more Lebanese villages to leave their “homes immediately and move north of the Zahrani River.” Arabic language spokesman Avichay Adraee said in a new order shared on X that Israel was planning attacks on the Lebanese villages of Khirbet Selm, Beit Yahoun, Sarafand and Deir Qanoun En Nahr.
As we’ve been reporting, Israel has further expanded its forced displacement orders for southern Lebanon to the Zahrani River, about 40km (25 miles) north of the Israeli border and further north than previous orders that reached the Litani River. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, Israel’s sweeping evacuation orders now cover more than 1,470sq km (568sq miles), or about 14 percent of the country’s territory.
THE BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA HAS DEFEATED THE GREAT SATAN IN THE WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC
