Maybe this is too fedposty (and let me know if it is), but I’ve been thinking about this a lot, especially with how things are going in Iran. It seems like modern warfare is basically just “my drones strike your drones”, and if either side has drones free to not strike other drones, they can instantly kill whoever they like. With this in mind, is it even really possible for a revolution in the US to escalate into a civil war without simply being air-superiority’d into oblivion with modern sensors? Is guerilla war viable anymore? The main counterpoint I can think of to this possibility is that the US military is A: incompetent and B: mostly a colonial garrison force, but I don’t know.

(And yeah, I know a revolution in the US would have a whole laundry list of prerequisites and is significantly hindered by the fact it can’t be tied with anti-imperial nationalism. I’m talking strictly in terms of if it actually happened.)

  • CyborgMarx [any, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    19·
    11 days ago

    As you astutely pointed out, the prerequisites for revolution have to be realized before a real revolution kicks off, and these takes I made a few years ago are what I believe the prevailing conditions will look like when revolution becomes possible in the United States

    1. The Mormons will become the Word Bearers of the Dark Neo-American Empire
    2. White Supremacist ISIS will emerge out of the Northwest states
    3. California, Hawaii and Texas will become independent, Nevada and Arizona go to California, Texas swallows half the deep south and the southern half of the Great Plains
    4. The Feds will maintain control over most of the East Coast, with massive right-wing insurgencies in the southern portion
    5. The Midwest states are an enigma to me, I don’t really get what their deal is, maybe they’ll fall to American ISIS in surprise campaign that shocks everyone

    The possibilities of a US civil war lies in one place only; the factional rifts (potential and actual) among armed federal agencies and the true identities of their capitalist suppliers, backers, investors and patrons, the 18 intelligence agencies of the United States would obviously form the nexuses of new leadership castes, absorbing or leveraging the 3,000 or so private intelligence companies active in the US

    It’s a path of least resistance that flows towards whatever government entities has the most guns, and these new power blocs will scramble to absorb the various branches of the US military (assuming of course the various officer corps of the US military don’t somehow overcome the combined pull of 18 intelligence agencies)

    The police will obey, or they’ll be branded foreign infiltrated rogues and destroyed (this may have the unfortunate effect of confusing certain leftist radicals who may form incorrect assumptions about the new “cop-killing federal government”)

    Militias will either be absorbed a la Azov battalion-style or suffer a similar fate to the more uppity pigs

    This picture is likely to emerge by the mid 2040s

    I believe revolution in the United States will acquire a balkanized nature with the military situation being defined for both sides by defeat or victory in detail, there will be states where the left wins utterly and states where it is crushed completely, but the defeats and victories won’t be confined by state borders, which are largely irrelevant, but by the economic and demographic character of whole regions