It’s all speculation, but I don’t think the people in control of the US’s nuclear arsenal would be shy about dropping it in a medium or large population center, either because they believe mass death would bring down the Islamic republic because of a breakdown in public order, since the IRGC couldn’t keep the public safety end of the bargain, or because it would redirect resources from defense into emergency response.
Either scenario, the strait would open or at least be less heavily guarded.
Or they could just drop it for no strategic gain at all. Just for cruelty and spectacle. The US wouldn’t face any serious consequences it’s not already facing.
I agree. And any rational person would see that. I just don’t think the people in charge of the nukes would see it the same way, since the only war they know is WWII, and that one ended with nukes on civilian centers (don’t mention the eastern front). Not to mention they love bloodshed and spectacle, at the expense of the rest of the world.
I doubt there is a single centralized leadership capable of opening the strait post-nuke. The military is somewhat decentralized as it stands, and a nuke I think would be sufficient to motivate small militias to keep the strait closed for decades.
It’s all speculation, but I don’t think the people in control of the US’s nuclear arsenal would be shy about dropping it in a medium or large population center, either because they believe mass death would bring down the Islamic republic because of a breakdown in public order, since the IRGC couldn’t keep the public safety end of the bargain, or because it would redirect resources from defense into emergency response.
Either scenario, the strait would open or at least be less heavily guarded.
Or they could just drop it for no strategic gain at all. Just for cruelty and spectacle. The US wouldn’t face any serious consequences it’s not already facing.
I don’t believe nukes would open the strait, it would turn the war into an existential one for Iran and make them go full-scale escalation.
I agree. And any rational person would see that. I just don’t think the people in charge of the nukes would see it the same way, since the only war they know is WWII, and that one ended with nukes on civilian centers (don’t mention the eastern front). Not to mention they love bloodshed and spectacle, at the expense of the rest of the world.
I doubt there is a single centralized leadership capable of opening the strait post-nuke. The military is somewhat decentralized as it stands, and a nuke I think would be sufficient to motivate small militias to keep the strait closed for decades.
Yep, spot-on. It doesn’t take that much to keep the strait closed, and can meaningfully be kept closed if need be even by militias.