It looks to me like this round of the war is going in Iran’s favor more than any of the prior rounds. They’re blasting US targets all over the region and forcing all kinds of strategic retreats while massively depleting US stocks of munitions and straining every single capacity of the imperialist demons. We love it!

I’d like to see what people think looking ahead. Let’s operate from a single assumption: no lasting peace is possible without a dramatic change in the shape of West Asia. I know some people think Iran might capitulate and allow a status quo not terribly different from before, but let’s set that aside for the purposes of my discussion question:

What will be the first state to collapse and be overthrown in the region?

Let’s take a look at the contenders.

Iran: This seems out of the question, but an extremely dramatic military reversal that would certainly require unity of action between Israel, the Arab compradors, Europe, and the US could conceivably, with great luck and big fuck ups by Iran, bring the Republic down. Seems incredibly unlikely to the point of practical impossibility.

Lebanon: The Lebanese state of 2026 exists solely to facilitate the destruction of its own people and territory by the Zionist Entity. Hezbollah and allied factions are powerful semi-state entities who clearly have the capacity to step in should the opportunity arise. Can they do so under aggressive Israeli fire? I think it’s plausible. A second run at a multinational republic constructed by the Lebanese people rather than the French could make for a powerful and implacable foe to Zionism. Is the Lebanese state fragile, or is external support too strong for it to buckle in the near term?

Syria: The Al-Qaeda government is caught between a rock and a hard place, needing to consolidate its power, assert its violent dominance over the many ethnic and religious minorities, stabilize a shattered society, and placate imperialist masters enough to not roll in in force. Iran’s missile campaign opens up opportunities for the head choppers to operate with a bit more leeway, so they might pull it off, but the most fragile states are always the newest.

Bahrain: A totally artificial colonial imposition (oops that’s everyone but Iran), this has one of the most lopsided demographic imbalances between the population and the ruling class. The Bahraini people are courageous and have a demonstrated recent history of mass uprisings. Could the war give them the opportunity they need, or will the Demonic House of Saud intervene even more fiercely given the stakes?

Jordan: What if your country were faker than Bahrain? Then you’d be Jordan, which is actually just Palestine ruled by the pathetic and detestable Hashemite dictatorship. I have very little insight into the state of mass organization in Jordan, but the country is mostly ethnic Palestinians. If the US is forced to withdraw from Jordan by debasification, what does King Dipshit Loser Who I Hate do to stay in power? Would the people be able and willing to rise up and dismantle the single use plastic equivalent of a nation?

Iraq: To me, Iraq actually reads as pretty stable and flexible. I think the Iraqi state has never been truly subdued by the US, even with the continuous theft of oil revenue, and the PMFs are powerful paramilitaries who can redirect the state in an anti-imperialist direction as needed. I think Iraq lasts.

Kuwait: This is gonna come as a big surprise, but Kuwait is fake. If the war accelerates to a ground campaign, this opens up the opportunity for some Iran-Iraq collaboration to roll in and tear this colonial construct apart. This is the state most likely to be dismantled from the outside, imo.

UAE: Kill the Dubai in your heart.

Yemen (good): Ansarallah’s Yemen appears to be on the rise militarily and economically, decisively benefiting from the war and deeper connections with Iran. Infinite support to the endlessly brave and heroic Yemeni people in their decades-long crusade against genocidal imperialism. They will never fall.

Yemen (bad): This shit probably has less than 12 months left before Good Yemen wipes it out, right?

Saudi Arabia: Unfortunately, I think the Demonic House of Saud is the most stable of all the gulf compradors and will probably be the last domino to fall in an optimistic scenario. The Demonic House of Saud is adaptable and would be willing to give all kinds of concessions to maintain a diminished hold on power rather than fall outright, and the sheer scale of the state makes bringing it down difficult.

Egypt: One of an extremely small number of Real Countries on this list, Egypt’s Zionist-serving leadership has physically relocated themself to an isolated military base masquerading as a capital city precisely because they know everyone wants to overthrow them so bad. I wonder if this strategy can work. What would keep a revolutionary movement from re-declaring Cairo the capital and establishing a new revolutionary state there? Still, I think Egypt is insulated enough from the war that they’re probably not on the brink.

Oman: no idea

Qatar: no idea

Israel: This is the big prize, the keystone piece that holds together the entire imperialist apparatus through a regime of unimaginably horrific violence. No greater could be achieved for the world than the collapse of Israel short of a communist revolution in the United States itself. Unfortunately, the Palestinian resistance appears to be weak and disorganized after almost three years of genocide. The noble people of Palestine have suffered for the whole world to see, and they do not appear to be more capable of bringing down Israel than they were before October 7th. What would change that? Two primary factors: Iranian escalation against the Zionist Entity and US abandonment of its colonial outpost. The first seems plausible as the campaign continues to play out, and a sufficiently battered Israel may be ready to fracture were a Third Intifada launched. The second is also not out of the question. The US does not need Israel. Yes, it needs Israel for a set of important strategic objectives, but the war with Iran is demonstrating that the evil empire is losing its grip on the region anyways, so what good does Israel serve if Iran is running the region? It’s becoming politically untenable to support Israel in the US, and while this country is not in any way a democracy, it does not mean mass rage is unable to shake the ruling class into submission. It has happened many times before on many other issues. The Zionist Tumor understands this threat, which is exactly they want to permanently take the question out of the realm of politics and financially merge with the US military. That may work out, but doing so could easily produce exactly the backlash (in concert with all the other horrors of this wretched nation) to force the ruling class into retreat or oust them from power entirely in a world-historic revolution.

What do y’all think?