Half-Life 3 announced. America collapses before its released in 2031

  • WhatDoYouMeanPodcast [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    11 months ago

    AI fake fools a politician who complains on TV -200

    Political assassination anywhere in the world +180

    Joe Biden dies +150

    A VP becomes president +300

    Legal battle for whether Israel pledges trump free speech -100

    Israel wins the legal battle +400

    A fascist doesn’t become president +99999

    Bitcoin’s price changes by $40,000 +200

    Retail real estate prices collapse +300

    Retail real estate gets bailed out +600

    Any once in a lifetime economic collapse +200

    Any once in a lifetime weather event +200

    US involvement in an African military conflict +300

    • radiofreeval [any]@hexbear.net
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      11 months ago

      Converting this to decimal odds like a normal person:

      AI fake fools a politician who complains on TV: 1.5

      Political assassination anywhere in the world: 2.8

      Joe Biden dies: 2.5

      A VP becomes president: 4 (why is this less likely than Biden kicking the bucket?)

      Legal battle for whether Israel pledges trump free speech: 2

      Israel wins the legal battle: 5

      A fascist doesn’t become president: 1001

      Bitcoin’s price changes by $40,000: 3

      Retail real estate prices collapse: 4

      Retail real estate gets bailed out: 7

      Any once in a lifetime economic collapse: 3

      Any once in a lifetime weather event: 3

      US involvement in an African military conflict:4

      • WhatDoYouMeanPodcast [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        edit-2
        11 months ago

        What I should have done for that VP becomes president is Trump wins and then dies for a big 500 odds payout alongside a sizeable Biden dies at any point this year for a 100 payout (which is on there)