isn’t Trump planning to use the tariff money as a slush fund outside of congressional control? I don’t think this is even about trade policy anymore

I’ve heard that there’s currently a trend in Asia towards a new “coffee culture”. Coffee is becoming more and more popular there, and this trend seems to be rising almost vertically. With Chinese coffee companies like Luckin Coffee rising in popularity, I could definitely see that consumption number going up. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s quite a bit higher by now since 2022.

I think coffee use is growing pretty rapidly, but it’s definitely a tea culture, so coffee is a small piece of the market. But basically a decade or two ago they probably didn’t much coffee at all, and now there are Starbucks and local chains that have coffee all over the place in Beijing (this could be money and Olympic effect though, haven’t been anywhere else). I did get a great coffee at a local chain in Xian though, and you could only pay through WeChat. The cashier was really nice to us (you can’t pay with WeChat unless you have a Chinese bank acct, so no dice for tourists) and she paid for us and we gave her cash.

But yeah—won’t replace US consumption. Maybe the Brazilians are looking to hedge—assuming that their sales will drop somewhat to US because of tariffs but not entirely, and making up difference by sending to China, which could also grow over time.