it depends on how many banks have been floating this along. very rich investors rarely invest their own money. they borrow against their perceived wealth and negotiate a return percentage with big institutions to invest in shit like this.
so when it goes bad, those institutions are in the red. and the money they were holding for their clients is suddenly less than what was deposited. that’s pension funds/retirement accounts, endowments, etc.
there’s not enough chairs and the music has stopped, so the biggest institutions win and everyone else, their customers, lose.
additionally, none of those lenders wants to loan anybody anything anymore, so they don’t. that means communities can’t get credit to fix/upgrade infrastructure, projects are halted, and all the people who would do that work are laid off. they can’t make their payments, and another round of defaults hits from the retail end, leading to more toxic assets and more institutions fighting over another shrinking pile.
the whole engine of finance capital seizes with nobody wanting to do anything until the state steps in and takes on all the debt, prints money, and lets the big institutions take advantage of what has become a fire sale.
so we come out in the other side with fewer, larger institutions, owning more and more of the valuable assets and the people being left holding the bag for whatever toxic excrement nobody wanted.
individuals who manage to get through it without losing their income that can continue to save for retirement are deemed “winners”, because if the whole thing doesn’t crater, their retirement investment accounts (if they didn’t have to cash them out / retire in the mean time) will probably recover in valuation over time, especially as they Dollar Cost Average their retirement contributions through the credit crunch/contraction.
its a losers bet, imo, because there is no way to plan or time anything and everybody wants to retire eventually.
hooray for the ‘business cycle’ it gets worse every time but technocratic counter-cyclical tailoring of stimulation and austerity will solve it ‘once and for all’™
Tbh, retiring with an income from accrued capital in the stock market is for schmucks. It’s the cushy retirements with 70k annual spending that Americans are striving for. If you just need a house, a bike, good neighbors, and some fruit and nut trees, you can secure that easily in 5-10 years.
The crash will be terrible for people used to finance-borne luxury.
If you just need a house, a bike, good neighbors, and some fruit and nut trees, you can secure that easily in 5-10 years.
well, sure, except people also need healthcare. especially as they age, so that is the saving/working motivator for most because prior to medicare you can lose your house/garden/neighbors & bike before you hit 62 without insurance. and medicare in the US generally fails to pay for any medication unless you pay in premiums.
the simple, low-cost life in the US is increasingly enclosed upon to prevent those of us who would be vagrants from taking full advantage of our modest needs.
if i slip and fall I don’t want to end up unhoused, taking a baton to the head because i fell asleep on a park bench.
Housing costs maybe 5 years of wages plus 0.05 years of wages per year of retirement if you live alone in a house. Food costs either 0.1 yw/yr if you continue to buy it all, or 0.02 yw/yr plus a bit of gardening labor in retirement. Transportation costs 0.01 years of wages for a baseline, 0.2 yw/yr for lots of travel, 1 year of wages + 0.1 yw/yr for a single-owner car. Health insurance costs up to 0.2 yw/yr on the marketplace, maybe less with Medicare or if you stay healthy into your 70s.
Once you take care of the big hurdle of housing, that’s still as much as 2.5-3 years of retirement per 1 year of working.
there is no “staying healthy maybe” in the US without healthcare. that isn’t a thing you can do your little napkin derivations for… which also don’t include homeowners insurance or property taxes, which are subject to change… sometimes drastic. everything here injures, poisons, or traumatizes people. the only people who think they’re gonna surf above it all by riding their bike (don’t get hit by a car!) and eating kale are the ones not yet noticing what its already done to their bodies and minds.
accidents and diseases don’t care about your choices or plans, especially now that public health has become the latest target of capital formations.
preventative healthcare maintenance and routine access to a physician for diagnosis is the surest way to catch even worse things before they become catastrophies, and that requires insurance + money.
trying to individualize survival in capitalist political economy is playing in their rigged casino, and without insurance you’re going all in on every hand.
also, i dig the idea that a house is 5x wages. real flash back to the 1990s there, unless you’re talking about getting a fracked to shit place in north texas where the groundwater is full of heavy metals and the leafy greens from your garden will let you hear the voices of screaming gods.
which also don’t include homeowners insurance or property taxes
You just glossed over my comment then. 0.05 y~w is 4k on average (using GDPpc), where I am it’s slightly under 2k. This lines up pretty closely with property taxes and homeowners insurance combined. I’m in a location where a 3br house costs less than 5 years of fulltime minimum wage pre-tax income. Also I was using a solo-occupied house as a steelman; anyone socially capable would benefit from having multiple people for each house (and for each car). We’re not trying to mandate retiring in the burbs.
But I guess you’re right. All my experience of living in communes is wrong and illusory.
Guess I’ll go back to plan A of a 40-year standard career and relying on the imperialist economy for my retirement then.
it depends on how many banks have been floating this along. very rich investors rarely invest their own money. they borrow against their perceived wealth and negotiate a return percentage with big institutions to invest in shit like this.
so when it goes bad, those institutions are in the red. and the money they were holding for their clients is suddenly less than what was deposited. that’s pension funds/retirement accounts, endowments, etc.
there’s not enough chairs and the music has stopped, so the biggest institutions win and everyone else, their customers, lose.
additionally, none of those lenders wants to loan anybody anything anymore, so they don’t. that means communities can’t get credit to fix/upgrade infrastructure, projects are halted, and all the people who would do that work are laid off. they can’t make their payments, and another round of defaults hits from the retail end, leading to more toxic assets and more institutions fighting over another shrinking pile.
the whole engine of finance capital seizes with nobody wanting to do anything until the state steps in and takes on all the debt, prints money, and lets the big institutions take advantage of what has become a fire sale.
so we come out in the other side with fewer, larger institutions, owning more and more of the valuable assets and the people being left holding the bag for whatever toxic excrement nobody wanted.
individuals who manage to get through it without losing their income that can continue to save for retirement are deemed “winners”, because if the whole thing doesn’t crater, their retirement investment accounts (if they didn’t have to cash them out / retire in the mean time) will probably recover in valuation over time, especially as they Dollar Cost Average their retirement contributions through the credit crunch/contraction.
its a losers bet, imo, because there is no way to plan or time anything and everybody wants to retire eventually.
Tbh, retiring with an income from accrued capital in the stock market is for schmucks. It’s the cushy retirements with 70k annual spending that Americans are striving for. If you just need a house, a bike, good neighbors, and some fruit and nut trees, you can secure that easily in 5-10 years.
The crash will be terrible for people used to finance-borne luxury.
well, sure, except people also need healthcare. especially as they age, so that is the saving/working motivator for most because prior to medicare you can lose your house/garden/neighbors & bike before you hit 62 without insurance. and medicare in the US generally fails to pay for any medication unless you pay in premiums.
the simple, low-cost life in the US is increasingly enclosed upon to prevent those of us who would be vagrants from taking full advantage of our modest needs.
if i slip and fall I don’t want to end up unhoused, taking a baton to the head because i fell asleep on a park bench.
Okay, let’s factor that in.
Housing costs maybe 5 years of wages plus 0.05 years of wages per year of retirement if you live alone in a house. Food costs either 0.1 yw/yr if you continue to buy it all, or 0.02 yw/yr plus a bit of gardening labor in retirement. Transportation costs 0.01 years of wages for a baseline, 0.2 yw/yr for lots of travel, 1 year of wages + 0.1 yw/yr for a single-owner car. Health insurance costs up to 0.2 yw/yr on the marketplace, maybe less with Medicare or if you stay healthy into your 70s.
Once you take care of the big hurdle of housing, that’s still as much as 2.5-3 years of retirement per 1 year of working.
there is no “staying healthy maybe” in the US without healthcare. that isn’t a thing you can do your little napkin derivations for… which also don’t include homeowners insurance or property taxes, which are subject to change… sometimes drastic. everything here injures, poisons, or traumatizes people. the only people who think they’re gonna surf above it all by riding their bike (don’t get hit by a car!) and eating kale are the ones not yet noticing what its already done to their bodies and minds.
accidents and diseases don’t care about your choices or plans, especially now that public health has become the latest target of capital formations.
preventative healthcare maintenance and routine access to a physician for diagnosis is the surest way to catch even worse things before they become catastrophies, and that requires insurance + money.
trying to individualize survival in capitalist political economy is playing in their rigged casino, and without insurance you’re going all in on every hand.
also, i dig the idea that a house is 5x wages. real flash back to the 1990s there, unless you’re talking about getting a fracked to shit place in north texas where the groundwater is full of heavy metals and the leafy greens from your garden will let you hear the voices of screaming gods.
You just glossed over my comment then. 0.05 y~w is 4k on average (using GDPpc), where I am it’s slightly under 2k. This lines up pretty closely with property taxes and homeowners insurance combined. I’m in a location where a 3br house costs less than 5 years of fulltime minimum wage pre-tax income. Also I was using a solo-occupied house as a steelman; anyone socially capable would benefit from having multiple people for each house (and for each car). We’re not trying to mandate retiring in the burbs.
But I guess you’re right. All my experience of living in communes is wrong and illusory.