• CascadeOfLight [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    11 days ago

    Between their military and police force, which are in many ways functionally interchangeable, the US accounts for over 60% of the world’s military budget. This is the effect of bringing to bear a century of total global domination and the power and experience gained from that, particularly in special forces operations. The staging and planning of this attack probably ran into the billions of dollars, not even counting the actual purchase price of the weapons, ships and aircraft involved, or the training costs of personnel, or the cost of putting up the spy satellites they will have used, etc.

    It’s certainly surprising they could outright capture and extract him, rather than just bomb him or gun him down, but when you look at the total volume of military hardware used to pull it off, it’s not that hard to believe.

    • TreadOnMe [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      11 days ago

      Yeah, I have been thinking about it and, even if they do pull this whole thing off, the complete take over of Venezuela, is it actually going to be worth it? I mean, this economy runs on such short term gambles, but the oil industry, especially the Venezuelan oil industry, would require years to restablish and actually create profitability. I mean, the five finger discount doesn’t really count if you spent 2 billion dollars on stealing it.

  • Clippy [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    8 days ago
    i wish to redact this comment i made

    alt text: picture includes a tweet from the twitter user yugopnik, he writes:

    3 options really:

    • Incompetence
    • Betrayal (50 mil bounty)
    • Pre-negotiated extraction/capitulation

    In any case - in America’s world no country is sovereign without nukes. No country.

    I should not fuel wild speculation when we do not know anything yet for a fact

    • FALGSConaut [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      11 days ago

      There is the fourth option that america has really invested in SEAD/DEAD capabilities and Venezuelan air defenses were neutralized by large numbers of American stealth aircraft. Then as other uses have pointed out hitting a heli with a manpad isn’t easy when the helis are taking precautions and actively looking for anti-air teams.

      100% the only way to guarantee sovereignty is nukes. Just look at the DPRK, they’ve been on America’s shitlist for decades & haven’t been attacked to the same extent as others like Libya, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Venezuela, etc

      • a_party_german [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        11 days ago

        100% the only way to guarantee sovereignty is nukes.

        Mark Ames talked about this in the latest RWN. His main counterpoints:

        • India and Pakistan fought a small war in 2025 - both have nukes
        • Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, a nuclear power
        • Russia probably would have invaded Ukraine even if they had nukes, it was just that existential for them
        • the nuke argument really only works for the DPRK, and maybe they’re just not important enough for the empire to bother

        Anyway if you want to listen for yourself, here is the episode:

        https://www.podbean.com/media/share/dir-vua6p-29edd699

        • CarmineCatboy2 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          11 days ago

          The third and fourth points are just hand-wavey aren’t they? ‘Russia would have invaded Ukraine anyways’ is rich coming from them - RWN also though Russia wasn’t going to invade at all back in the day. Moreover, what sort of counter-factual is ‘the empire just doesn’t care all that much about North Korea’? Are we going to say that about every country between Cuba and Iran until the US actually goes ahead and escalates its wars against them?

          If Ukraine losing a fourth of its territory isn’t existential enough to raise the risk of nuclear war then, well, at that point you might as well argue that nukes are useless actually and nobody is ever gonna fire one. I for one thing it is much more convincing to argue that Israel - backed by the US - did not feel existentially threatened by Iran and that neither did India or Pakistan in their small war.

        • notmyoldaccount [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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          11 days ago

          The horrifying reality is that nukes are just another tool in an arsenal of war and not a magic game over device that is too evil to use. It is not a magical deterrent and the empires are more than willing to shoulder a little nuclear hellfire to achieve their goals.

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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        11 days ago

        The vast majority of nations in the periphery cannot afford a nuclear weapons programme, it’s just not an option for not countries economically unless you’re prepared to spend 25%+ of GDP on the military, which can also lead to collapse. Advanced economies like Japan, South Korea, Germany can easily obtain nuclear weapons with minimal economic sacrifice. Nuclear proliferation does not benefit the periphery at all.

      • Biggay [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        10 days ago

        I see a lot of comparisons to Korea, but another major factor for their continued existence isnt the nukes, like Cuba they just arnt that important of a market or resource hub to pilfer. Both Iraq and Venezuela have a lot more people and a lot more resources to steal away. Iran -> Columbia -> Mexico are likely to be the next on the chopping block and all of which do not stand a chance without another major world power intervening in their stake. We’re back in the multipolar world and as such the peripheral governments have to be more subservient than they ever were before when the US was really the only player. Of course, Russia is too busy in Ukraine and China will not invest in a foreign policy of opposing US hegemony.

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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    11 days ago

    US F-35s, F-22s and RQ-170s vs Venezuela’s limited numbers of old Soviet/Russian ground based air defence and fighter aircraft, such as the S-125/SA-3 Goa, Buk M2E/SA-17 Grizzly, Su-30s and maybe an S-300V/SA-23 Gladiator/Giant. Hydrogen bomb vs coughing baby. Air superiority for the US is practically guaranteed within minutes. Then all the helicopters have to worry about is man portable air defence systems (MANPADS), very short range infrared guided shoulder fired missiles. Who spots who first, the attack helicopters or the MANPAD operators. The helicopters seem to have won most of these engagements.

    There’s a reason China is building new stealth fighters and advanced air defence, it’s not to waste money. It’s a matter of national security.

  • RedSturgeon [she/her]@hexbear.net
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    11 days ago

    If USA told you that you have a lovely family and it’d be a shame if something happened to them, but if you help them out, they’ll provide you with everything you need, for the rest of your life, would you say no? How many people do you think would refuse?

    It’s a well documented fact in how the USA behaves itself and what it does. What sort of methods they use.

  • GnomeGodsGnomeMasters [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    11 days ago

    If anyone is watching the press briefing, cheeto-man just said Maduro was in the “ready position” and expected the raid.

    My assumption is that this is very much like when Avon Barksdale was raided in the Wire, and was just sitting in an empty room waiting for the cops, worried more about the cops ruining his oversized safe that was too big to get out of the room than he was for himself

    • TreadOnMe [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      11 days ago

      Given the lack of chaos following, I think they have anticipated this for awhile.

      The key is to see what actually comes out of it. I will bet they were probably holding for more of a fiasco.