So, the saying goes that as a regular stock trading citizen, just follow the numbers. You get the information about stocks in real time, and you can use all sorts of well established statistical analysis tools to try to predict trends and so on. For people who are good at this, it works - and even big firms will always use the numbers as the bottom line.
The inverse is also said to be true - as a regular citizen you can’t reliably trade off information. This is because as regular citizenry we are the last to get information - any large firm will have their fingers in the pie already, and through connections they’re often one or zero degrees from insider trading.
But as Marxists, we like to say we have the curse of always being right. Though every political faction feels this way, the difference with Marxism is we analyse the world in a different way than the establishment.
So, why couldn’t we put this to some use in making stock decisions based off analysis of imperialism and so on?
Well, the main problem is that imperialism and capitalists tend to be winning - so to invest early in their winnings would be to materially support the enemy. Like - investing in Lockheed Martin is pretty much always a safe bet - but it’s also morally reprehensible.
But disregarding this, I’ve been trying to run an experiment using Trading212’s ‘practice’ mode - you get given 5k worth of fake money to play around with, to see how your investments pan out.
Here’s what I did:
Rolls Royce and Lockheed Martin - weapons, and engines for things that carry weapons. Up roughly 20% on each - not a great score, but it was a very safe bet.
Deep Sea Mining - the depressing writing was on the wall with this one. I’ve been watching this issue for years and felt the match was sadly ready to be lit. I was right. Odyssey Marine up 20% , TransOcean up 31% , The Metals Company up 41%
Mining - uncontroversial to say gold has become important due to shaky currencies, but I got in there early because as a Leftist I could see an economic recession coming a mile away. I chose Newmont, because it’s huge and has mines everywhere in stable regions. Up 46%.
At the same time, I also looked for companies involved with Lithium and other metal portfolios related to big tech. Albemarle - up 84%
I also looked for companies looking to operate in West Africa. This was based on looking at how Traore and the west African block had somewhat stabilised, and were looking for ways to fight Islamic fundamentalism - attracting investors. Barrick - up 76%. B2Gold - up 7%.
That’s a pretty successful portfolio. 100% hit rate. Did I just get lucky, or is it really this easy?
For the next phase I’d like to focus on some more niche Imperial bets - looking to find companies that will profit from Chinese investment or American counter investment along Chinas Belt and Road initiative - maybe Uzbekistan? Lol.
In bull market there is 90% chance your bets will payoff in any direction
Could you predict where you have to short and be right? Could you see when the music stops vs somebody got a boo-boo?
I’ve never tried shorting or puts or anything, because my answer to that question is no. I just look on Reddit to see if it’s bearish or bullish markets and if the bears are out I stop investing.
When was it not a bull market this past couple of years? Because I tried general penny stocks things and did well for a while, and then suddenly it became a lot harder to do well some time this year so I stopped. But now it’s back?
When I was much younger and doing freelance computer work, I occasionally worked for a guy who would spam penny stocks as part of pump and dump schemes. I feel like that’s where a lot of your big (smaller) players are doing well.
I mean the question is, are you doing some sort of analysis, or are you just vibe trading, and in the bull market everything lands on black?
There is no evidence of using leftist information in your post, more like random ideas jumping.
True that brother
It is easy to make money off of stocks, especially when stocks are rising. That’s why every single person’s retirement investments provide reliable long term returns. It’s why every single person with money has stocks.
The problem is you need money to invest. Even if you put in 1000 and get a crazy 100% return on your investment in a year- you make 1000 dollars. While that’s nothing to laugh at, it’s also not life changing. Rich people make bank off of stocks because they have bank to begin with.
The wallstreetbets and gamestop things were special because people could make bank without having bank by trading on loaned money. Of course the vast majority of people lost all their money plus owed money they didn’t have.
Most of trading is a myth. The whole genius investor thing is nonsense.
To be more specific- go to a graph of any stock’s price over time for any time span. Now randomly pick a spot on that graph and ask- if you had invested then, would you have made money by the end of the graph you’re looking at? In a bull market the answer is nearly 100% yes no matter the time frame and no matter where you point your finger. Graph goes up means money goes up. There is no intelligence there.
Huh, interesting. When was it not a bull market this past couple of years? Because I tried general penny stocks things and did well for a while, and then suddenly it became a lot harder to do well some time this year so I stopped. But now it’s back?
Ya penny stocks are where my example breaks down. They definitely behave more like straight gambling where you just have to get lucky. Other things where this wouldn’t work are stocks where there is just a lot of volatility - like Nvidia or things like that. I guess my main point is that just making money in stocks is easy. Getting way better returns than the average person is more difficult. Like if a stock’s graph has a steady incline of 5% a year then you making money on then it is unimpressive, but if you manage to make 10% each year from it then that’s slightly more impressive (even then you can just use an algorithm that makes tons of tiny trades to take advantage of minor static in the graph or use a broker that does that for you). I dunno, I’m not an expert here and I’m getting out of my depth now
I see - investing itself is a no brainer but making being a solo trade and trying to make a true living out of it from scratch without major financial backing is the hard part.
Did I just get lucky, or is it really this easy?
Maybe a different way to think of it is, ‘why wouldn’t it be this easy?’. Is the gatekeeper here knowledge and skills, or is it just having capital to invest in the first place?
Personally, I don’t like to give anyone playing this game credit (pun intended), so I know what I’d say.
The risk-reward ratio is unrealistic to make any real money unless you have a large enough balance. For instance, say you want to daytrade a SPY Call Option and have $200 to trade with… you’re probably stuck with a 0 day contract which expires literally that afternoon and can quickly decay into nothing. But you can’t afford even one share of SPY for that amount and the other stocks available are going to be riskier to buy and hold vs. grabbing a slice of the entire market.
It’s doable but WAY easier if you are starting from 20k vs. $20
just copy Pelosi’s moves and you’ll be okay.
They only get disclosed 2 months later - so by then most of the profit has been taken. Good for long holds I suppose but the Pelosis beat the market by being first in and first out - and 2 months after that makes you at worst last in last out, at best youre in with everyone else trying to copy Pelosi trades (a lot of people), and out at your own mercy.
this is why finance guys are consistently failsons because it’s fucking eazy
This john owen guy made his money betting on rising inequality. I think its save to say if you have capital you can gain more. But that is not the reality for most people. And like you said you are investigating and therefore directly supporting the enemy.
Wall Street reads Lenin
Seems ethical as marxists to short companies since that means destroying them, especially if you then send your gains to palestine, the problem is that it’s insanely risky and there’s no limit to what you can lose. I have no skin in the game here and very limited knowledge so anyone should feel free to correct me. I wondered if you could create an LLC and then use it to short the fuck out of everything with no risk to you but it seems too easy to be legal.
Also, if you get wrecked you actually contribute to driving the price up
Mine was much lazier (trading or ‘investing’ idk). I started buying up TQQQ (3x Leveraged NASDAQ-100) ~$150 a month (to get a wide variety of prices) starting in early 2024. The bubble grew and grew and I made like 50% return. I think with constant trading, it becomes very difficult emotionally, you end up selling stuff at a loss.
I don’t trust 2026 to be good (unemployment going up, weak US economy, bubble not likely giving actual returns, Fed rate cuts) so I sold it and went back to corp/sovereign bonds (existing purchases). Sold at a pretty good price since TQQQ hasn’t recovered from it’s peak. I am still buying SPXL (triple leveraged S&P 500) though (small amounts $60/m) because I do not know when it will bottom out. Is it going to succeed always? Idk, but relying on the US Gov to prop up stock prices as long as the market exists is a strat.
Also put some in junk bond ETFs like JNK & XCC. These ones usually drop hard when there is a run to liquidity, usually more than fair value, esp considering the Fed props up the credit market (Fed in fact bought small amount of JNK during COVID crisis).
Edit: I think the easiest thing you can look at is the PE ratio.
See, this is all jargon to me. So I think I got lucky, lol.
Ok. So, TQQQ is basically the entire US tech sector (ai bubble and all) but it goes up 3 times up or down (roughly, it’s a bit more complicated). Since its an ETF you can’t lose more than you put in unlike other types of leverage. SPXL is the 3 times version of top 500 US corps.
I buy up small amounts every month since it gives variety of prices. You automatically buy up more shares during a downturn and less during a boom (ofc you need a steady income, which can be hard to come by if you are a private sector worker during a recession)
JNK/XCCC the ETF provider buys up a bunch of low credit rating corporate debt. When there is a financial crisis, certain big traders are forced to dump these at a discount (due to company/legal requirements) which makes it sell at a discount of what it should be given actual default rates of underlying debt. Fed especially makes sure that highly rated debt (A’s and B’s) don’t discount too much. XCCC is junkest of the junk so extra risky.
The bad part of such ETFs are that they pay as dividends, and if you are a non-US investor, you end up paying 15-35% to the US depending on country as withholding tax. You may get double taxed which can be a real drag on returns. Some countries allow you to claim withholding to reduce your tax liability. To counter this, you can buy an accumulating ETF which allow you to pay taxes as capital gains in your own country (though there is a 15% drag still, since most of accumulating ETFs are located in Ireland and Ireland has a 15% withholding tax treaty with the U.S.).
PE ratio shows how overpriced shares are given the current level of actual earnings.
I’d play this game if it was a game and I didn’t have to put real money in. All this jargon, all these systems, you’re speaking a language that makes that puzzle solving side of my brain tingle. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing honestly, LOL.
I might just do that. Something to distract me with that might have tangible benefits at some point.
Might want to look up “leverage decay” before holding SPXL long-term. Since it rebalances daily, after a drop your gains compound on a smaller base, so a 30% loss followed by a 30% gain doesn’t get you back to even, it leaves you down 9%. That effect gets amplified in choppy markets.
Yep. I mentioned that in the second comment. Leverage etf only works well during
continuously. Mine went into negative 10% back in Apr 2025 when Trump did his thing. I would never buy anything other than broad ETFs. America has some crazy ETFs like 3x crypto or 2x amazon leverage.
