Below is my weekly summary/preamble, spoilered so that you can get down into the comments more easily.
preamble
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a ceasefire that, for weeks, is so obviously about to be broken at any given moment and yet nonetheless continues. So-called Operation Freedom may mark a resumption of hostilities, as the US seems to once again be trying an active role in attempting to take control of the Strait of Hormuz. The initial, ridiculous claim was that the US Navy would itself be escorting ships (i.e. just getting your destroyers sunk for no reason), and as expected, this was just said to try and calm markets. Nonetheless, there is reporting that other military measures may be taken against Iran soon if they continue to keep the Strait closed, so we’ll see how that all goes.
US gas prices at the pump have hit close to record high numbers, and generally the average citizen is growing mightily displeased with Trump, even those in previously safe demographics. Unfortunately, this discontent is not immediately geopolitically relevant - as both parties are staffed from top to bottom with pro-war Zionists with only a small group of exceptions, and third parties will necessarily never be allowed to take power, there is no way for US public discontent to manifest itself in a change of policy. What is more likely to cause changes in policy will be grumbling from American capitalists, of which there are many factions. The fossil fuel capitalists seem perfectly content for this situation to continue indefinitely, with record profits. I imagine the financial sector is pretty nervous, but aren’t currently demanding Trump cease fire - same for the tech industry which has now been engulfed in AI, as the bubble seems to be close to, but not quite, popping. Smaller businesses and agriculture are perhaps the most likely to be crying uncle, but may have limited representation.
Going back to Western Asia, the situation from last week has remained broadly the same. The Zionist tactic in Southern Lebanon appears to essentially be “If we can’t occupy this land, then you won’t be able to, either,” as they are doing their utmost to physically destroy as many towns and villages on the border as possible. Hezbollah’s success at keeping Zionist territorial gains fairly minimal, and the growing onslaught of not only anti-tank guided missiles but also FPV drones causing chaos where the Zionists attempt to hold and advance, have, I believe, partially contributed to Iran not pushing the issue of a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon so far as to cause them to feel the need to resume fire on the occupied territories.
The US blockade has truly been a mixed affair. While it’s obviously quite leaky and many Iranian ships are getting through, Naked Capitalism and others have pointed out that it’s not just Iranian ships that are transporting goods, and that there are ~70 Chinese ships with Iranian oil that are much less willing to risk running the blockade. But, once again, the success of the blockade isn’t all that relevant. Iran has experienced periods of a couple years straight without meaningful oil exports and survived, and their extensive land borders make a true siege impossible - goods can and are still pouring into the country, and with Pakistan recently allowing Iranian exports through their border, as well as the Caspian Sea in the north and Iran’s railway link to China, Iranian exports can still leave just fine. Another interesting indication is that China’s government has ordered Chinese businesses to ignore US sanctions against Iranian oil, so we’ll see how that develops. And while the issue of maintaining sufficient public cohesion in the wake of economic suffering is a potential long term problem, we haven’t yet seen any meaningful scenes of public discontent inside Iran. Internal unity appears to be staying at record levels in the face of total war.
Even being as careful as possible to check my own biases, it’s difficult for me to form any other conclusion other than that Iran is winning, and people like Armchair Warlord have even pointed out that American tactical victories have been pretty minimal so far.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2051645775071826142
Hegseth: Soon we will hand responsibility of strait to the world
Sounds more like an admission of failure. “We ignited a fire, failed to extinguish it, now good luck guys”
Mélenchon has committed to it, France will leave NATO if he wins.
“If I am President, France will leave NATO. NATO serves only one purpose: to place us under the tutelage of the United States.”
And we’re back to the cursed megathread, nice seeing you nerds again after a lil break.
May Allah guide Iran’s strikes
https://t.me/almayadeenenglish/20913
Israeli media reported on behind-the-scenes coordination between the United States and “Israel”, following an unusual meeting between US Ambassador to “Israel” Mike Huckabee and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in occupied al-Quds.
According to Israeli Kan news, the United Arab Emirates is no longer satisfied with condemnations and is exerting pressure on the United States to strike Iran, arguing that Tehran should be “punished” over the alleged missile launches, although Iran has denied them.
In more detail, “Israel’s” ambassador to the UAE, Yossi Shelley, spoke with a senior official in Abu Dhabi, who told him that they must “make the American administration act,” adding that “it is impossible to be tolerant toward the Iranian regime in any form; they must be punished.”
The United States, however, has maintained ambiguity over the content of the discussions, stating, “As a matter of policy, we do not comment on private diplomatic conversations.”
Lets understand the series of events.
Zionist entity deploys personel and materiel to UAE -> Iran fires missiles at US navy in retaliation for escalation -> energy infrastructure starts blowing up in UAE -> Iran denies attacking UAE -> UAE loudly demands US return to bombing Iran.
Imagine letting another country carry out a false flag on your own soil, against your most important source of revenue, and you play your theatrical part demanding a war that will end you
Further evidence the UAE has about as much sovereignty as my cat 🐈 fake country
Mélenchon from La France Insoumise (left populist/socdem/demsoc) had an interview where they discussed his party foreign policy positions here is a quick recap:
- They are opposing the “israelo”-american war against Iran and would like to organize a diplomatic front against it, but are criticizing the Iranian government and hope they would change over time (w/o intervention)
- He said “Israel” are the most dangerous country currently in west asia.
- He said that under his doctrine the french UN troops would not retreat but oppose “Israel” if they were to push and invade Lebanon as it is their mission as an “opposition force” with a UN mandate. He said he would also alert all countries and militias that if french soldier part of FINUL would be attacked (like it recently happened), the french army would retaliate against the aggressors.
- They want to get out of NATO as soon as possible as they deem it a tool of US domination and their goal is to have an independant France
- They recognize Taiwan as part of China. They would not intervene if there was a conflict between China and Taiwan as “it is their business” and they want to reinforce cooperation with China as they share common goals (stability etc.). They also want closer partnerships with China (and India as well) in space notably rather than continuing with the “western space station”.
- They want to reestablish discussion with Russia to find common ground as for them Russia is part of Europe and relationship should be more friendly (although he laments them being capitalist and said Europe was safer during the USSR than currently). They refuse to wage a war against them as they don’t want a nuclear holocaust (France and Russia being 2 nuclear powers). He denounces Ukraine invasion but reminds the interviewer that Russia had 3 red lines for NATO expansions, Ukraine being one of them. He wants to discuss a real end to the war and referendums in the Donbass and other russian speaking regions so that they can choose whether they want to leave Ukraine or not (reminding that the western part of Ukraine did “bad things” to their russian speaking population in the east". He said as a direct quote “I do not want to bomb Russia and I want to remind people that they lost 20millions of their citizens [for the liberation of Europe from Nazism]”
- He criticized the colonial mentality of the current french governement towards Algeria and wants to improve the relationship as he thinks diplomacy on equal footing is the only way forward.
- He wants to create a pact of countries that border the mediterranean sea to establish a joint management of the common water body (Climate change, sea pollution, how to handle water for fires etc.)
- Complained about Macron neo-colonialism speeches and actions in Africa and wants to mend the relationships between France and these African nations and treat them as equal partners. (As Mélenchon was a big supporter of Mitterrand back in the 70-80s, I’m suspicious of France and him in regards to the african continent, even moreso seeing how France treat their defacto colonies they still possess around the globe)
I would highly encourage you to watch the full interview with the auto-translated subtitles as I think it gives a really good picture of what their Foreign Policy vision is, although I am not completely aligned with all his positions I find them good enough and I think the world would be a far better place if these were implemented. I hope they will be able to seize power in 2027 and do what they say they are gonna do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1AzW4zhwrc
Edit: Forgot to share this gem from a few years ago where a rapper did a freestyle with Mélenchon as the subject lmao https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SYuP98Delw
Thanks to a ban on Soviet iconography in Germany, the display of any Soviet flags on Liberation day had to be censored
80% of U.S. hoteliers in 11 World Cup host cities say bookings are tracking below original forecasts, with some describing the tournament as a “non-event,” according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/2052154188436513048
turns out turists dont want to get dissappeared by ice who could have known?
Guardian update - Rubio says the US is working to get ships through the strait of Hormuz as a “favour to the world because we’re the only ones that can”. He says ships that are currently stranded are holding goods that are essential for the people of other countries, including fuel, fertiliser and humanitarian aid.
“It’s their ships that are stranded. Not ours.”
He adds that the US is stepping up because “we’re the only ones that can project power in that part of the world”.
Iran’s Fars news agency says two missiles hit a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz
If they were actually hit and the US just pretends like this didn’t happen, that would be very funny. Maybe we get one angry Trump post?
Edit;
Fars: According to the Army Public Relations, a few hours ago, United States destroyers, by turning off their radars in the Arabian Sea, intended to approach the Strait of Hormuz, but immediately after turning their radars back on, they were detected and faced a radio warning from the Navy of the Islamic Republic of Iran about the dangers of violating the ceasefire.
The brave soldiers of the army, after the American destroyers ignored the warning, explicitly stated in a renewed warning that any attempt to enter the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire and would be met with a response from the naval forces.
At this stage, following the American Zionist destroyers’ disregard for the initial warning, the Navy fired warning shots of cruise missiles, rockets, and combat drones near the enemy’s invading vessels to issue a warning; the responsibility and dangerous consequences of such actions will be felt by the hostile enemy.
At this stage, following the American Zionist destroyers’ disregard for the initial warning, the Navy fired warning shots of cruise missiles, rockets, and combat drones near the enemy’s invading vessels to issue a warning; the responsibility and dangerous consequences of such actions will be felt by the hostile enemy.
Iran plays far more respectfully than the US ever will.
iran gives 2 warnings then a warning shot. Israel and the US just immediately kill you, your family and an entire civilian neighborhood and lie and blame it on you
https://xcancel.com/Forbes/status/2051726930727342528 https://archive.ph/dIYxL
Nearly 80% of U.S. hoteliers in 11 World Cup host cities say bookings are tracking below original forecasts, with some describing the tournament as a “non-event,” according to an American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) survey of members released Monday.
https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2053431762689069418
Ynet: Protecting themselves with fishing nets, with the help of donations: "There is no answer to FPV drones”.
The forces are using “fishing nets," which H. claims they obtained independently. “The goal of the ‘fishing nets’ that we use is actually to distance the drone’s impact, so that if it hits me - I won’t be killed, but ‘only’ injured,” he said. “Instead of the army being able to provide us with them - the NCOs are raising funds to buy us some. They post a link to a story they publish, and ask citizens for money so that we can buy life-saving equipment.” "Hezbollah’s combat doctrine is to shoot at us once and then send another drone that targets the rescue force.
oh, a double-tap strike? the same shit the IDF has been doing for years (except, you know, the second tap here still being on military forces, and not on civilian paramedics)? yeah, how does it feel to be on the receiving end now, fuckers?
This adds to the concern, especially for those who rush to treat the wounded and may also be harmed." “This is a life threatening situation and we are helpless against it, we are facing open skies,” said H., expressing frustration.
of, “expressing frustration”, huh
"As fighters, we do not understand how it is possible that the IDF manages to achieve the capabilities of intercepting outside the atmosphere, and in the end, facing explosive drones from Ali Express, the army does not provide a response. The fighters lose limbs in the best case and their lives in the worst case." He also criticized the government’s conduct: “It continues to engage in evasion instead of finding solutions for those who show up time and time again.”
https://xcancel.com/EventsUkraine/status/2051657213031403867
Remember the Flamingo missiles, so hyped up by the western press last year? Last week, the Ukrainian press revealed how many have been launched over the past year: 23. And how many hit their targets: 2. But the company received 1 billion euros in German funding in 2025. This company is secretly run by Zelensky’s old friend Timur Mindich, now in Israel
https://archive.ph/SF3n6 (not the full article, it’s Substack so the archiver can’t get around the paywall)
https://xcancel.com/STANISKRAPIVNIK/status/2051210626152759751
The Sunday Times today devotes an entire spread to the sensational story in Ukraine about how a fighter named Nazar Daletsky returned home to Lviv from Russian captivity, only to be buried there with someone else’s remains being handed over to his mother. The story, of course, is touching and revealing. The British newspaper admits that Ukrainian morgues are overwhelmed and unable to cope with the influx of corpses from the front, and many bodies are still lying in refrigerated trucks on railway tracks near Kyiv and Odessa. But for some reason, the Times does not ask the question: how could this happen if, according to Zelensky and official British propaganda, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are supposedly minimal? Similarly, the Times does not explain to readers why the chevron of the Ukrainian fighter who returned from captivity features the eagle of the Nazi Third Reich. After all, they would have to explain to readers that “Nazism in Ukraine is a fabrication of Russian propaganda”!
The long awaited Iranian response to the US response came a few hours ago.
An Iranian official to Al Jazeera: Tehran’s response to the American proposal came in a realistic and positive form. Our response focuses on ending the war in the entire region, especially in Lebanon, and settling disputes with Washington. Our response focuses on the need for a clear and guaranteed mechanism for lifting all forms of sanctions. Our response is based on the country’s supreme interests and the outcomes of our consultations with regional countries. The choice is now in Washington’s hands, and its commitment to political realism will be crucial.
Trump is already raging on Truth Social, looks like the response was the same list of negotiating positions that Iran has been making since the start.
