A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi (below) and Iranian Speaker of Parliament Ghalibaf (above, right) in the Iranian parliament in 2024. These two figures have played a major role in the war so far.


My summary of the situation as I understand it is in spoiler tags below.

summary

After many long weeks, Iran and the US have agreed that they’re going to begin negotiations on certain topics in a process lasting at least 60 days. Due to America’s perfidy during previous negotiations, trust has broken down so far that Iran demanded $12 billion of their frozen funds and several other promises, such as the end to the naval blockade, to even return to the table, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Iran also demanded that negotiations take place in two stages, and that nuclear issues will only be discussed in the second stage, which will be several weeks from now if everything goes as planned.

The terms of the MoU have themselves been a big source of confusion and suspicion, for me and many other pro-Iranian spectators. Getting the wording exactly correct is important, because the US really is like the devil - leave room for any possible interpretation in the contract that favors them more, and they’ll insist that this was the only interpretation up for discussion. Additionally, the US might be historically bad at winning wars, but they’re very, very good at winning peaces: they set up the post-WW2 order to best suit them by playing the European powers off each other; the DPRK might have survived the Korean War politically intact but existed for nearly the next hundred years as a sanctioned pariah; Vietnam was soon forced to economically engage with the country that had dropped triple of all the bomb tonnage of WW2 on them; and so on. It is no exaggeration when I say that the negotiation phase will be the most dangerous part of this war and it could lead to the most death and destruction without a single missile impacting Iran.

However, there’s one little genocidal colony in the region that could stop this whole process from even beginning, as the US appears to have promised Iran that the Zionists will stop the war against Lebanon (and perhaps Gaza too? I’m a little unclear) and even withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, including all bases set up since this broader conflict began. Apparently, the US promised this in return for Iran not striking the Zionists in return for their most recent strike on Beirut on June 14th. Now, the issue with this whole situation is that the US greenlit the Zionist strike on Beirut, and they knew that Iran would respond to it because they did in response to an earlier strike. If the US made such major concessions to Iran in return for this response strike not occurring, then why authorize the Beirut strike at all? Why make their position worse? Right now, I can think of two reasons. First is that they attempted to create one final embarrassment for Iran, under the assumption that Iran was so desperate for a deal that they wouldn’t risk responding. Second is that this is all one big ruse or misdirection; the US does not intend to follow through with the MoU and subsequent negotiations anyway, and so the terms they’re “agreeing” to don’t really matter.

With the MoU signing apparently set for June 19th, we’ll know for sure soon.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

    ‘From our perspective, there are two sides in this MoU. On one side there is the United States and Israel, and on the other side there is Iran and Hezbollah.

    An end to the war in Lebanon is an inseperable part of the complete end of the war in the region. And a complete end to the war includes a withdrawal of all the forces from occupied areas. Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the lands it occupied during this war, it won’t be considered a complete end to the war.

    Any military attack by Israel against Lebanon from now on, or the continuation of Israeli occupation inside Lebanon, will definitely be considered a violation of the MoU.’

    • Middle East Spectator
    • SickSemper [she/her, they/them]@hexbear.net
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      supporting statements

      Iran’s Central Military Command (Khatam al-Anbiya) warns ‘Israel’

      Over the past 2 days, after the US president announced the end of the war, the terrorist army of the Zionist regime has violated the ceasefire in southern Lebanon 84 times and continues its crimes and the killing of the oppressed people of Lebanon.

      Iran warns: if the child-killing army of the Zionist regime does not end its malicious actions in southern Lebanon, it should await a harsh response from the powerful Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Israel requested to see the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran but was rejected, according to Israeli Channel 12.

    • Middle East Spectator
  • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    📊 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot

    🟦 Democrats: 46% (+1)

    🟥 Republicans: 44% (+3)

    Trend • Feb. 16: Democrats +7

    • May 12: Democrats +5

    • Jun 15: Democrats +2

    https://nitter.net/IAPolls2022/status/2066880094757392589

    another moment for the seppos, mr. musk can easily buyout the rest of the difference.

    (incidentally, where are all the serious analysts claiming buying twitter was a mistake)

      • reader [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        I don’t think signal is the primary issue here… At least I haven’t seen any evidence of that. its not usually the tool that’s the problem, its the organizational structures around it, the devices its installed on, the way that it’s used, the things it’s used for…

        • culpritus [any]@hexbear.net
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          Since we don’t know how the chat was compromised, it may have been as easy as someone not using lockdown mode with a strong passcode. There’s features that may have worked to avoid this log getting out, like disappearing messages, but even that could be archived by an infiltrator. Better org structure can help with that.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    The US will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel once the memorandum of understanding is signed this week, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the agreement.

    The sanctions waiver covers not only oil sales but also related services including banking, transportation, and insurance to facilitate those sales, WSJ reports.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

    • Inter Slava
  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Israel violated the ceasefire in Lebanon, carrying out a double-tap strike in Mayfadoun A vehicle was struck, and the subsequent arrival of medical crews and civilians was then bombed three times. There are martyrs at the scene.

    • Middle East Spectator
  • Bearlifter [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    —❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧 NEW: Israel violated the ceasefire in Lebanon, carrying out a double-tap strike in Mayfadoun

    A vehicle was struck, and the subsequent arrival of medical crews and civilians was then bombed three times. There are martyrs at the scene.

    @Middle_East_Spectator

    https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/33635

    i am waiting impatiently for Iran’s response, thus far they have not said anything about the occupation still occurring.

    even yesterday israel was drone striking Lebanese journalists for documenting their war crimes.

    (video of the attack contained here: https://t.me/RezistanceTrench1/66780 )

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    First Iranian ship crosses US naval blockade zone - Prensa Latina

    Article

    Istanbul, June 16 (Prensa Latina) The first Iranian ships sailed without incident through the area where the United States maintained a naval blockade, following the agreement reached between Washington and Tehran to end hostilities, the Iranian Fars news agency reported today.

    According to the semi-official media outlet, the maritime transit occurred after US President Donald Trump ordered the lifting of naval restrictions as part of the understanding reached between the two nations.

    The agency specified that an Iranian VLCC supertanker and a livestock carrier sailed from international waters bound for Iranian ports, while another tanker crossed the Sea of ​​Oman heading to its assigned export terminal.

    Fars did not offer additional details about the final destination of the vessels or the cargo carried by the tankers.

    The passage of the ships comes two days after the United States and Iran, with Pakistan mediating, announced a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict triggered by the military offensive launched by Washington and Tel Aviv against Iranian territory on February 28.

    While the US president asserted that the agreement had already been signed and that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open starting Friday, Iranian authorities indicated that the official signing of the memorandum would take place in Geneva, Switzerland, on that same date.

    According to analysts cited by regional media, the measures adopted so far represent a preliminary application of the ceasefire and the temporary lifting of the maritime blockade imposed on Iran, while preparations are underway for the public signing of the agreement and the start of a 60-day period of technical negotiations on various bilateral issues.

    The United States had imposed restrictions on maritime traffic linked to Iranian ports, including those located in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, since April 13, a move that affected one of the main routes for global trade and energy supply.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Supreme Court Justice De Moraes gives Bolsonaro 24 hours to explain weapon seized in raid - EBC News

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    The driver stopped by the police identified himself as an employee of the GSI (Institutional Security Office). Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), determined this Tuesday (16) that the defense of former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro must provide clarifications, within 24 hours, about a firearm owned by Bolsonaro seized in a blitz by the Military Police of the Federal District (PMDF) last night (15) .

    The former president has been under house arrest since March 24 , when he left the DF Star Hospital in Brasília after being hospitalized to treat bacterial pneumonia.

    According to Moraes’ decision, the weapon was seized at 11:30 pm last Monday (15), when a Honda Civic was stopped at a checkpoint on Pistão Norte, in Taguatinga. During the approach, the driver identified himself as an employee of the Institutional Security Office of the Presidency of the Republic (GSI) and said that the weapon belonged to the former president.

    During the raid, a spare magazine for the 9mm Glock pistol was also found. The driver was taken to a police station, where he stated that the weapon had been given to him due to a malfunction. In his statement, he further reported that he had taken the pistol on the 15th itself in order to carry out the repair and that the weapon would be returned the following day.

    In his decision, Moraes asks Bolsonaro’s defense to clarify why the former president kept a firearm at home, with a spare magazine, and why, on the eve of the end of the 90-day period granted as humanitarian house arrest, the convicted man requested repairs to the weapon.

    The minister also requests that Lieutenant Colonel Allenson Nascimento Lopes, commander of the 19th Battalion of the PMDF (Military Police of the Federal District) and responsible for security measures under the humanitarian house arrest regime, clarify whether the court order to search cars leaving Bolsonaro’s residence – including official vehicles providing security for the former president – ​​is being fully complied with.

    Before the decision authorizing house arrest, Bolsonaro was serving his sentence at the 19th Military Police Battalion, in the Papuda Penitentiary Complex, in Brasília. The place is known as Papudinha. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison in the criminal case related to the coup plot .

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    Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court begins trial against former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro - Prensa Latina

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    Brasilia, June 16 (Prensa Latina) Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) will begin today the trial against former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, accused of promoting actions from the United States to pressure national authorities and influence processes on the coup plot.

    The case will be analyzed by the First Chamber of the highest court, made up of judges Alexandre de Moraes, Flávio Dino, Cristiano Zanin and Cármen Lúcia.

    Eduardo, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, faces criminal charges brought by the Attorney General’s Office (PGR), which accuses him of arranging contacts and negotiations in the United States with the aim of promoting sanctions against Supreme Federal Court (STF) ministers and economic measures that would affect Brazil.

    The investigation into the matter was opened in May 2025, when Eduardo Bolsonaro was already residing in the United States.

    According to the indictment, the former congressman acted alongside journalist Paulo Figueiredo to mobilize political support among authorities and allies of the US government in order to punish members of the Brazilian judiciary and increase pressure on national institutions.

    Prosecutors believe that such movements were intended to influence the development of the legal proceedings involving former President Jair Bolsonaro and others accused of participating in maneuvers to reverse the 2022 election results.

    This complaint attributes to the former deputy the crimes of coercion during the process, obstruction of the investigation of a criminal organization, attempted abolition of the Democratic State of Law and attack against national sovereignty, the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper detailed.

    Yesterday, STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes rejected a request from the Public Defender’s Office of the Union (DPU) to postpone today’s session.

    In that request, the defense argued that the First Chamber currently operates with only four members and questioned De Moraes’ participation, as he is among the alleged victims of the sanctions promoted by the accused.

    However, the magistrate stated that the STF’s internal regulations allow the courts to function with a minimum of three judges and ruled out any procedural irregularity.

    Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lost his parliamentary mandate due to repeated absences from the sessions of the Chamber of Deputies, will not be present at the hearing and will be represented by the DPU.

    The defense maintains that its actions are protected by parliamentary immunity and freedom of expression, and argues that any measure adopted by the United States responds to sovereign decisions of that country.

    A potential conviction could result in prison sentences and also disqualify the former legislator from competing in future elections under the Clean Slate Law.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Bolivia: Government deputy says of the activist mission from Argentina: “They should go back to their country, we don’t need interference from leftist foreigners who have done so much damage.” Ok but I guess far-right foreigners like Paz’s advisor Fernando Cerimedo are okay?

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    Lula da Silva’s victory over Flávio Bolsonaro in the narrative battle following Trump’s controversial decision - Veja

    A majority of independent voters agree with Lula’s assessment regarding the classification of Latin American criminal groups as terrorist organizations is wrong and dangerous.

    Article

    The Lula administration’s concern over the Trump administration’s decision to designate the PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations is shared not only by progressive voters. The majority of independent voters also agree with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s assessment.

    This is shown by a Nexus poll, which reveals that most respondents viewed the U.S. government’s decision as a threat to national sovereignty.

    The result indicates that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the narrative battle he had been waging on this issue with the PL’s presidential hopeful, Flávio Bolsonaro, who defended and worked to advance Trump’s initiative.

    According to the Nexus survey, 37% of voters believe the measure will threaten the safety of Brazilians, serving as a justification for interference or sanctions against the government and the people. Another 30% believe the initiative will improve security by focusing exclusively on combating criminal groups, while 23% state that the decision will not lead to interference, but is merely bureaucracy or political posturing. The percentage of those who did not know or did not respond was 9%.

    When political affiliation is taken into account, the survey found that 56% of staunch Bolsonaro supporters say the measure will improve public safety, while 59% of voters loyal to Lula view the U.S. decision as a threat to sovereignty and national security.

    Furthermore, the study shows that independent voters tend to agree with the stance of the pro-government electorate on this issue. In this group, 44% view the measure as a threat to the country’s security, compared to 21% who expect improvements and 25% who are indifferent to the measure.

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    The Guardian - Speaking at the G7, Trump has said the strait of Hormuz will be open by Friday and that the full text of the peace deal will be released in a “formal setting”. Trump also said he expects the “second stage” of the deal “to go quickly”. He added that the main outcome from the MOU is that Iran will “never have a nucelar weapon” and that he will go over the deal with the media “in a couple of days”.

    He earlier told reporters this morning that he had a “great relationship” with Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, but said told reporters that Netanyahu:

    “has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon. Without me there would be no Israel, because no other president was willing to do what I did.”

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    Bolivia’s general strike against neoliberalism is still going strong. However, there seems to be a stalemate:

    • The govt can’t repress the strikes due to dissent within military & police.
    • The unions & indigenous movement don’t have a political party to lead a transition.

    I said before that this was the movement’s greatest weakness. The scale of the strikes is as large as previous uprisings that did overthrow pro-US govts, but in those uprisings there was always a party to see it through and build popular power.

      • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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        Left is divided, the Right is also divided now. There are rumors of a possible far-right coup in Bolivia happening soon and Paz might have to give concessions to the Left and Evo to stop that from happening. Who would’ve thought that arming a bunch of far-right thugs and terrorists would be a bad idea.

    • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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      The protests have cooled down for a bit thanks to the world cup, but it will probably get back at it after the end of the world cup.

      The “World Cup effect” in Latin American society is a profound socio-cultural and political phenomenon. Far beyond a sporting event, it acts as a powerful unifier that bridges deep social divides, heavily influences national identity. Football is a lingua franca across Latin America. During the World Cup, the tournament becomes a dominant social focal point that temporarily supersedes political, economic, and regional differences.

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    Thousands of Kurdish fighters are integrating into Syrian institutions - Prensa Latina

    Article

    Damascus, June 16 (Prensa Latina) Thousands of members of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have joined the security and defense structures of the Syrian state, while another 8,000 fighters remain in the process of negotiation for their integration, an official from that organization reported today.

    According to statements given on condition of anonymity to Rudaw TV, most SDF members are now part of state institutions, whose Ministries of Defense and Interior have taken over the payment of salaries and social benefits, including assistance to the families of the dead and wounded.

    The official detailed that some four thousand fighters were incorporated into the Syrian Internal Security Forces, while another five thousand joined newly created brigades in the northeast of the country.

    He added that around 1,000 members returned to the Afrin region to join the new local formations and that another 2,000 troops are expected to return for the same purpose.

    However, he indicated that talks are continuing on the integration of another 8,000 fighters, because the number of SDF troops exceeds the figures initially contemplated in the agreements reached with the Syrian government.

    The deputy governor of Hasakeh, Ahmed Al-Hilali, announced on June 2 that the authorities are preparing to incorporate more than nine thousand members of the Asayish security forces into the Internal Security Directorate of that governorate, which is under the Syrian Ministry of the Interior.

    According to Al-Hilali, the process will include approximately 1,000 women and will begin with individual interviews and assessments as a preliminary step to their integration into the official security institution. The official explained that these measures are part of the implementation of the agreement signed on January 29 between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces, aimed at strengthening institutional and administrative integration in the northeast of the country.

    He also noted that the pact has allowed progress in areas such as education, the organization of future parliamentary elections, the management of wheat production, and the administration of border crossings.