“Let’s nominate someone indicted for fraud. That doesn’t make me look suspicious at all.”
TL;DR: I think it’s a play to help Trump (if that’s even possible) at taxpayer expense.
Another way to look at it, is that she and the Freedom Caucus are trying to make it impossible to fill the speaker position. Last time took 15 tries over 4 days. We have a pro-tempore speaker, but legislation will take a back seat to filling the Gavelmeister (I mean speaker).
This data is from Sept. 20 https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/20/politics/mccarthy-house-speaker-vote-margin-numbers-dg/index.html
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31 far-right Republicans who have repeatedly voted against McCarthy
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18 moderate Republicans in districts Biden won in 2020
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172 other Republicans
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212 Democrats
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2 vacancies
That’s 435 seats (2 vacant). From 2001 to 2021, the Senate spent an average of 164 days in session each year, and the House spent an average of 149 days in session (source https://ballotpedia.org/117th_Congress_legislative_calendar). The annual salary of a rank-and-file Member of Congress is $174,000 (source: https://www.congressionalinstitute.org/2019/02/21/how-much-do-members-of-congress-get-paid-2/)
So each day of this clusterbuck, each member of congress is getting just over $1,167. Multiply that by 433 (the number of filled seats in Congress) and we spend $505,651 or half-a-million dollars each day for congress to twiddle their thumbs. It cost the US taxpayer more than 2 million dollars to elect McCarthy, and now we’re going to pay to find a replacement.
While the republicans have the majority, it is fractured by extremists and moderates. The democrats won’t vote for an extremist republican, so most likely 212 (Dem) + 18 moderates = 230 Nay, even if 172 others + 31 extremists say yea, the vote fails. But if the 31 extremists say nay to a moderate, it’s going to take democrats reaching across the aisle, and then Gaetz plays the ouster card again.
We have a continuation resolution to keep the Government going for 45 days, or until Nov. 14. If The Freedom Caucus keeps the speaker position churning, the government may shut down because they are too busy playing “who gets the gavel?”. The far right is pushing to cut funding for the F.B.I. and the Justice Department (source https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/us/politics/trump-house-budget-fbi-republicans.html) because this could help save Trump. But even if they got what they wanted now, I don’t see New York stopping their trial, and I don’t see Georgia just rolling over. Trump’s bacon is being held to the fire. All the Freedom Caucus is doing is creating Chaos. I could hope their supporters would see this as an expensive Hail Mary, but I doubt it; they will probably get re-elected and this circus will continue.
Moderate Republicans can obviously completely avoid Gaetz’s and Greene’s bullshit if they commit to consistently working across the aisle.
The House GOP saying that working with Democrats is career ending is what gives the Freedom Caucus its power to hold the GOP hostage.
Love your write up! Don’t really like the mental imagery of ‘Trump’s bacon’ though. Lol
Bluntly, I don’t think he’d accept the job, because it involves a hell of a lot more actual work than the comically small amount of actual job-related stuff he did while being president, and it’s not something he can skate by on. If he is elected to the speakership and then just doesn’t show up… the House can’t do anything. Which, sure, might be the point, but it would also be extremely obvious that they’re just throwing rocks in the gears, and it’d be essentially impossible to convince anyone with more than a couple brain cells that it’s because of Democrats - and translated into the context of the American electorate, that means it’s a toss-up.
18 moderate Republicans in districts Biden won in 2020
Nah, there’s just about 18 fewer moderate Republicans in Congress than that. It’s a fascist party with a few paleoconservatives like Cheney and opportunistic corporate raiders like Romney looking moderate in comparison by virtue of not frothing at the mouth while actually still being far right.
The only moderate conservatives in Congress are Democrats.
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91 federal indictments
The GOP is just fucking crazy and a danger to this country.
And they still get ~45% of the vote.
The States need a lot of fixes.
MTG is exactly who her constituents want her to be.
“Does her entire constituency look like the movie Deliverance?” - Keith Olbermann
Well, maybe minus the protagonists in that movie.
The GOP is just fucking crazy and a danger to this country
They are simply a terrorist group at this point, and by extension so are the GOP voters who support all this
Is this not how extremist groups have risen to popularity in the past? Looks pretty fucking crazy until they start using their insanity to move people (primarily reactionary, fearful idiots) into action. Hmm. This all sounds a bit familiar… not sure from where/when though. It’s on the tip of my tounge 🤔
So their two best candidates are a, multiple court case proven conman, and the man who protected a high profile pedophile for years? The US is doing really well at the moment.
Trump can’t be Speaker for five reasons:
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Endangered Republicans from Biden districts won’t vote for him, or they’re doomed
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He has no understanding of House rules or procedures
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He’s going to be spending most days in court, losing his businesses and facing felony jail time.
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Being speaker involves forming coalitions with other people
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Too much work
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The rules say a person under indictment can’t be Speaker. How’s that?
House Republicans have ignored their own rules as late as like, 2 weeks ago, or some shit when they just decided to imprach without a vote.
Rules smules.
At this point they’ll try anything if they’re mostly sure it won’t land them in jail, and they’d rather make themselves “too powerful” to prosecute than to simply obey the law.
But what about after the indictments are resolved?
/s
Then it’s OK because he is no longer under indictment.
But…
Rule 26 of the House Republican Conference rules states:
“A member of the Republican Leadership shall step aside if indicted for a felony for which a sentence of two or more years imprisonment may be imposed.”
With 91 charges carrying at least two years, chances are he’s going to fall for at least one.
Also, these indictments will likely not be resolved before they have to nominate a new speaker, either because of some rule or to avoid some kind of political fallout. I’m not familiar with such rules, but maybe you are.
His Georgia case might not go to trial until late next year, so he couldn’t be Speaker all that time (though Fani Willis is likely going to ask the judge to try Trump in the first group).
Well of course. I don’t take this Trump business too seriously. In this case, they could change the rules, but they won’t do it because at the end of the day they won’t be able to get enough votes for h8m to begin with.
I dunno, He seems pretty incapable of doing the work. I doubt he could even understand the job, considering he ‘won against Obama in 2016’ and ‘is worried about Biden causing world war II’
Agree he can’t, as in is incapable of doing the job… but I think what we are looking for is “may not”, as in, “I can’t do it because I’m not allowed”. If he is ALLOWED, then the maga republicans will do their best to put him there and happily spiral the country.
- Not enough days off to play golf.
Have you seen his cult? I’d say the guy is scary good at forming coalitions.
He is, was, and always has been a conman. He’s scary good at convincing morons to hand him money, and that’s pretty much his one and only skill. That’s very different from forming a coalition which is about getting people that barely tolerate each other to agree to work together.
On the topic of how rabid his fans are, I wonder how much sunk cost fallacy plays into the whole thing. Like once you hand a big chunk of money to the orange turd do you continue to back him no matter what because to change your mind would be to admit you wasted all that money?
trump can fill the role in their minds for all those same reasons:
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Endangered republicans would need a spine to push back. Doubtful.
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Understanding of rules and procedures meant nothing when he was president. They don’t care, they want a figure head who will bend / break whatever rules (written or unwritten)to “hurt the people he should be hurting”. There will never be a day that they look at rules and think “well that’s prob too much for the wrecking ball, never mind I guess.”
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Fuck the courts in their minds. It’s all fake charges/witch hunt/circus/conspiracy babies blah blah blah. Remember, they deny/make up reality as they go along. I’m sure at one point instead of claiming “immunity” from presidential acts, trump will then shift to immunity from those cases because of speaker shit.
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When did trump or the republican party care about coalitions? Sure that’s a skill that would help make them effective, but it didnt stop trump from firing and hiring record amounts of staff, losing record amounts to indictments, and burning every bridge in town. Only to be potentially nominated for speakership by the lowest of the low. Coalitions are for people who don’t care about fucking 50% of the country via 15-20% of a party. There’s been 4 years of evidence how that played out with trump.
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When did trump ever do the work in the first place? He golfed more in 4 years than any other president did in. 8.
Let’s be clear. Trump would be considered for the speakership by the GOP purely for 2 reasons, to fuck Joe Biden every chance, and to encourage enough stochastic terrorism such that a maga loving shitbird shoots the President and Vp to open up a path for republican assholes.
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Mostly reason #5 tho
What would actually happen when the house speaker doesn’t show up for work?
The first thing that will happen is that nothing will happen, the speaker controls the floor, which means without the Speaker no legislation is passed.
This seems like a win from the perspective of MAGA’s
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No, in fact, not.
The speaker does not, actually, need to be a member of the House of Representatives.
My. Mind. Is. Blown.
Th US is so fucking broken
1 is the only reason he lilkely won’t win a nomination vote, the rest are reasons people might actually vote for him. There’s people to keep the rules and procedures straight for you, and the last 3 are great reasons that all but the most basic and necessary bills would be killed, and even some of them would be in jeopardy.
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I am eager to see how all of this plays out.
We effectively have three parties now. There’s the Democrats, the Republicans, and the MAGA extremists. The problem is that the MAGA extremists are simultaneously a much smaller group than either of the two major parties while also being juuuuuust large enough to make sure that neither one of the other two parties actually have a controlling majority.
Somewhat ironically, our system actually was designed to handle this. The entire system was designed so everybody involved would negotiate, compromise, and elect one speaker that everybody can at least agree with. Theoretically, we should be able to handle this without issue. The problem is that our system was barely able to handle a two-party system where both sides dig in their heels, double down, and view any concession at all as a “loss” rather than compromise and negotiate, because at least one side could use its majority to push something through one way or another.
But now we effectively have a three party system. Our system was not designed to handle a situation where three parties refuse to negotiate or compromise over virtually anything, but none have enough of a majority to push anything through. Especially when one of the three sides has openly stated their intent to just watch the whole thing burn.
One of three things is going to have to happen.
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The MAGA wing eventually backs down. IMO, doing this would effectively kill whatever influence they have even in their own party as backing down would make this entire ordeal a bigger waste of time than it already is. This would probably lead to the return of Kevin McCarthy as speaker with MTG’s hand crammed right up his ass, but only this time even more emboldened as he would no longer have to worry about the deals he made to get the speaker’s gavel in the first place.
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Moderate Republicans are going to have to work with Democrats to get Democrat support for a moderate Republican speaker. However, doing so is guaranteed to come with a whole new list of heavy concessions that would be all but politically suicidal for a Republican to accept. This would also make it nigh-impossible to govern as the Speaker would have the impossible task of balancing the wants of his own party with whatever deal he’d be forced to make with Democrats in order to get the position. (This idea would also be untenable to Democrats, as they’d have no power to enforce whatever agreement they would make once the new speaker is installed, and there would be nothing stopping a new speaker from just telling Democrats where they can shove their agreement.)
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Moderate Republicans double-down on their refusal to work with Democrats and instead begrudgingly accept a MAGA-endorsed candidate on MAGA terms just so someone gets the gavel. This would effectively put us right back where we started, with either Kevin McCarthy as speaker or someone worse than Kevin McCarthy, and just like he was, they’d have the Sword of MAGA swinging over their heads forcing him to do their bidding whether he wants to or not. This would significantly embolden the MAGA party, as they would be able to say “You will do what we say or we will oust you just like we did McCarthy”. People like MTG would become exponentially more insufferable than they already are with that kind of power in their hands.
Get the popcorn ready. This is gonna be one hell of a ride.
Both sides didn’t dig their heels in and refuse to compromise. One side compromised plenty to the annoyance of their voters (dems giving concessions to republicans)
The other side never compromised, then said “fuck you”, claimed dems are at fault, stormed the capitol and acted like those “maga extremists” were the normal ones.
This isn’t a both sides thing when one side is fucking committing insurrection while shutting down the gov, that’s not on democrats.
I didn’t say Democrats were wrong for refusing to compromise in this situation. If I were a member of the House, I’d sit back and watch them eat themselves too.
Both sides are refusing to compromise. Just for completely different reasons. Democrats are refusing to compromise because the GOP policies are untenable, they repeatedly go back on their word, and it’s not their responsibility to save the GOP from themselves (again). Republicans are refusing to compromise because they have the collective mentality of a 7 year old, their own (now former) speaker just went on record yesterday saying that they know they’re supposed to compromise but just don’t want to because they’re the majority party and fuck you that’s why.
My statement about neither side being willing to compromise wasn’t a “both sides” attack. It was merely an acknowledgement of the current situation. The reasons why they refuse to compromise are what separates the two sides.
Thank you. It’s critically important to recognize that each party does do similar things sometimes, but it’s also crucial to recognize the difference in motivation behind those similar actions, and to acknowledge that the motivation is sometimes just as important as the action that results from the motivation.
It’s just a fundamentally flawed system since it’s always easier to campaign AGAINST something instead of FOR something since the moment you make a constructive offer you’re making yourself attachable while being destructive works without being open for attacks of any kind
Normally this can be resolved by there being too many parties and too many different viewpoints to oppose all of them without being crazy - but with just two parties it gets too easy to see every of those two as a single entity as and just oppose whatever they are doing
Theoretically, six moderate republicans could vote for a Democratic speaker.
If they can secure their families in undisclosed locations and get extra security detail.
I would be nominated for speaker before a Republican votes for any Democrat speaker. Never mind the almost guaranteed threats of violence you mentioned, doing so would have been political suicide even in saner times. No congressman from that side who wants to remain in Congress and continue breathing is ever going to do that in today’s political environment.
I’d love to see it, but it’s never, ever, ever going to happen.
it’s never, ever, ever going to happen
That’s been said about a lot of things that have happened in the last 7 years.
Valid point.
You are more likely to get 60 (or even 160!) Democratic votes for a moderate Republican than you are six Republican votes for a moderate Democrat.
Theoretically, six moderate republicans could vote for a Democratic speaker.
I keep reading that Democrats aren’t obligated to help Republicans fix their Speaker issue, which is undeniably true, so why do so many people think that Republicans are going to hand the Speakership to their political rivals?
I mean in theory 8 moderate Democrats could vote for a Republican Speaker. Why do we think one of those is going to happen before another?
In the end all Gaetz & Co did here was make sure any legislation that comes out of the House until the next election cycle is FAR more liberal and bi-partisan than anything that would have happened under McCarthy.
The thought is you’re more likely to find 8 republicans willing to stay sane, instead of 8 democrats to sell their soul to this political death cult theater.
I mean right now no one in their right mind would want to saddle up with the magats shutting down the gov. That’s not why they were elected and it’s a good way to not get re-elected.
Sooo… 8 dems go maga? Or 8 republicans plead for normalcy… I agree both seem unlikely but you’d have to be a fool to take this as standard “both sides” gridlock.
…instead of 8 democrats to sell their soul to this political death cult theater.
Just like I reject the notion that all Democrats are pursuing some extreme left wing agenda I also reject the idea that all Republicans are members of the GQP Death Cult. Plenty of moderates exist among House Republicans and working with them should be fine.
I mean right now no one in their right mind would want to saddle up with the magats shutting down the gov.
At the risk of starting a brawl I’d posit that over 200 Democrats likely did that yesterday. I don’t think most people realize just how tilted the vote that removed McCarthy actually was. All of the House Republicans with the exception of just 8 voted to retain McCarthy. It’s a shame that McCarthy wasn’t a stronger Speaker and instead of working with House Democrats in a true bi-partisan fashion he instead chose to try and find an impossible middle ground but the fact remains that McCarthy wouldn’t have been removed if Dems didn’t like up behind Gaetz and Co to get it done.
…but you’d have to be a fool to take this as standard “both sides” gridlock.
Oh we are well past any kind of standard or normal “both sides” argument. I strongly doubt that the GoP is going to be able to bust the Freedom Caucus any time before the next election cycle which means that one party or the other is going to be forced to bend in the next 45 days. You could be correct that Congress finds a way forward with a Dem Speaker but however it happens I hope the adults are able to shut this shit storm down before it fucks up everything.
Because “moderate Republicans” are supposed to have more in common with Democrats than fascists.
Funny that they don’t anymore.
We need something akin to a “vote of no confidence” when Congress refuses to work.
You didn’t pass a budget? Great, we get to elect new people who will.
There needs to be some sort of consequences for not governing.
The problem is that we have career politicians in the first place. Power needs to change hands much more frequently. The way things are now, if snap elections were called when congress failed to pass the budget, nearly every district would go “it’s not MY rep that’s the problem” and send the same people back again.
I’m okay with career politicians actually. It’s a job. And like most jobs people get better at it over time. A skilled politician can do good things for their constituents.
The problem we’re seeing right now isn’t even the “old guard”. It’s the new kids in the house.
There were consequences…but they involved the 2nd amendment. The militarization of local police in the 90s made sure that will never again be possible.
I mean, there sort of are consequences. It’s just that it takes two years.
Except in practice no one ever seems to vote out congress(wo) men for being inneffective. They just keep voting in the incumbent as long as they’re in the right party
FYI, congressmember is a good catch-all term for gender inclusion.
Thanks, that’s much more elagant than my ham-fisted approach lol
That’s true… I’m thinking something more immediate for basic national needs. Things where inaction can be devastating, like not having a budget.
- No one budges and the whole fucking system collapses because everyone involved is a petulant child more worried about their next election cycle instead of running the country like they were hired to do.
Our system was designed to handle this situation. The remedy is in the press, outside the offices of intransigent members of Congress, in campaigns for Democratic Congresspeople, and at the ballot box.
Free speech is protected in the US specifically to air grievances with the government. You have to get off your ass to exercise it though. It’s not going to happen without you engaging in the electoral process.
Yours is one of those comments where I wish we were still on Reddit so I could give you Gold or Platinum.
Honestly, I’m glad that’s gone. Rewards incentivized ragebait posts and karma farming. Without it, people here have a lot fewer hot-takes and much more good-faith commentary.
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Speaker would mean Trump having to “read” and “pay attention”. No way he can do it.
Not to mention allow others to speak. Could you imagine Trump with the gavel allowing anyone else to talk? He’d open the session, begin a 2 hour gripe fest on whatever conspiracy theory he saw most recently, and then would gavel the House into recess to get McDonald’s.
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He’d fulfill their primary goal, which is to make government a performative bullshit fest that accomplishes absolutely nothing other than distractions and propaganda.
The Speakership is a real job, as in, it requires A LOT of work. You can’t just give a press conference, watch yourself on TV, and sign executive orders.
With that in mind, I also support Trump for Speaker of the House. It’ll be fucking hilarious at how ungodly terrible it will go. I give him 1 week before he makes up a story about how CIA DNC FBI deep state is trying to kill him, so he has to flee to Mara Lago.
If Trump gets speaker of the house some morons will try to assassinate the president and vice president to make him regain the presidency.
You mean the same people who live streamed themselves storming the capital on January 6th?
Don’t threaten me with a good time, because as funny as a Trump speakership would be, watching morbidly obese morons trying, and failing, to assassinate the President might even be funnier.
I dunno, a Castro fanboy made a damn good drive at it, and same with several other mentally ill people. I understand it is MUCH HARDER now, but do not discount some of these militia types and other far-right people - there’s been plenty of groups that have tried to plan assassinations of political figures of one stripe or another for the last 30 years, and I’m sure it ramped up quite a bit when Biden won the election in 2020.
How many MAGA supporters work secret service or white house details?
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Probably the whole Secret Service. Look at this email:
The agent is obviously proud to be the “unofficial (inching towards official)” liaison to the Oath Keepers. He has no reason to hide it, either. They exchanged cell phone numbers. This is what they wanted.
Thats their plan obviously, stochastic terrorism all the way. Its like they are saying … “Look at this insane MAGA nuts, we’ve given you an opening!!!”
I mean, being President should be a real job too, but that kind of ended in 2001 when we hired a moron. Obama would have done the job if the GOP had let him, instead of being so obsessed with his ethnicity.
Did we hire the moron or did the supreme court?
Oooh good point. Supreme Court fucks the Public once again.
The voters made it close enough for the SCOTUS and a few Florida crazies to make the decision.
Reagan. Possibly others, like Harding, but that was before my time.
there won’t be anything hilarious about it
These psychopaths want him as close to the top of the line of successions as possible.
And then to have the president and vice president suffer “unfortunate accidents”.
Speaker of the House is 3rd in line to be President if the Pres and VP are KIA / MIA.
I absolutely believe MAGA (and likely backed by foreign intelligence) would make a play at assassinating the President if Trump was in a speaker role. They were looking to hang people on Jan 6th…
You also have to, like, be an elected official of the House, so this is mostly MTG saying bullshit to retain the spotlight or deflect from dumb shit that Trump did, like getting slammed with a gag order. (Edit: I guess you don’t need to be in Congress. Go figure.)
You don’t actually have to be a member of the House to be speaker. It can literally be anyone. It just never has been anyone else previously.
House Speaker? Nobody else would get a word in. They’d have to listen to Trump’s word salad all day.
How many “would you just shut up man” would be said on a daily basis.
We are in the “technically the rule book doesn’t say that a dog can’t play basketball” stage.
“If you don’t shut up, I’m gonna impeach your ass with my foot.”
Let the GOP wallow in it!!!
All this says to me, is that they have a plan to kill Biden and Harris
Cause thats the only way Trump would accept Speaker position, since Speaker is second after Harris in Succession.
Yeah its pretty disturbing that they are even floating this idea, and its all to appease the insane conspiracy freaks
They’ve been floating this idea for at least a couple years. This was absolutely one of their hail mary plays.
It will just further their stupid narrative that everything happening against Trump is “politically motivated”, so they want to raise him up to speaker as another way to help shield him from criminal charges. “You can’t charge a sitting Speaker of the House with a crime,” or some shit is what they’ll say. Or they’ll try to impeach/remove both Biden and Harris as a way to install Trump as President outside of an election.
If by ‘impeach’ you mean ‘incite fanatical voter base to assassinate Biden and Harris’ then yeah, they’ll do that.
Is Putin her second choice?
Considering he has his dick in all their asses, I think he’s pushing #2.
He’s Putin it where?
Well done.
How does this nitwit remember how to breathe?
I don’t know, but each breath is a waste of oxygen.
They are going to try to make a chancellorship for Trump like they did to Hitler.
