Image is of a Khorramshahr-4 medium range ballistic missile, which has a range of about 2000km.
As I said in the last megathread, trying to figure out what exactly is happening is becoming ever more difficult. The gist of things is that Iran has, very justifiably, refused to negotiate (assassinating their leader and striking their country with hundreds of missiles in the middle of negotiations causes some reluctance to return to the table, I suppose). Censorship across the Middle East has further ramped up, with reportedly extreme punishments for posting footage of Iranian strikes online. From what I can gather, Iran’s number of strikes have stabilized at a comfortable daily rate, with strikes into both the Gulf monarchies and Occupied Palestine continuing apace. Official charts of these strikes over time seem very disconnected from reality on the ground, but again, it’s hard to really get at the specifics.
The messaging on how long the war is expected to last is rather muddled on both sides. The Trump administration fluctuates more than daily - and even sometimes in the same speech - on whether the war is already won or whether it’s going to last months longer. The US seems to be coming up a new possible scheme every few hours: a ground invasion with the Kurds? A ground invasion without the Kurds? An amphibious assault? A series of commando operations to steal Iranian uranium? A massive parachuting operation into Tehran? Fuck it, let’s just send the Navy into the Strait of Hormuz? There doesn’t seem to be a coherent plan for continuing hostilities beyond firing more and more of a limited stockpile of cruise missiles into mostly non-military targets, hitting easily replaceable drone and missile launchers with a limited stockpile of drones, and burning a limited stockpile of interceptors at an astounding rate (and, in the process, disarming every other Western-aligned country of their interceptors).
Meanwhile, from Iran, I’ve seen rumors and reports from classic anonymous “senior IRGC officials” (no doubt some invented by Zionists to sow confusion), that I don’t know how to substantiate, ranging anywhere from “If the US pulls back their forces now, we will restart negotiations,” to “It doesn’t matter what the US or the Zionists do or say, we aren’t stopping until every last trace of Zionism in the Middle East has been extinguished,” to a few positions in between those poles. Despite the damage to infrastructure in Iran, it doesn’t seem like there has been any political or social fracturing. Not to speak too soon - perhaps the West will start earnestly trying to overfly Iranian territory to drop their very plentiful bombs soon - but every indication is that there will be no regime change nor societal collapse in Iran in the short and medium term.
The US is desperately trying - and mostly failing - to keep a lid on the economic firestorm they have ignited. There has been much ado about oil prices and oil futures and indexes and what all the myriad Lines going up and down signify and things like that, which is befitting such a financialized empire which is so disconnected from the actual physical flows of materials and much more attuned to vibes and speeches. The only thing I’m personally paying much attention to on the economic front is the drones and missiles slamming into fossil fuel infrastructure, the Hormuz blockade, and the resulting global shockwave of shortages, stoppages, closures, bankruptcies, and force majeures spreading out from the epicenter that is Iran.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
part 3:
Urea Exposure: Country Risk Summary
The Compounding Effect
Several countries face acute exposure across all three commodity categories simultaneously. These nations represent the most extreme cases of vulnerability.
Japan: The Triple Threat
Japan is uniquely exposed on all three fronts: it is the world’s most Gulf-dependent major oil importer, one of the world’s largest LNG importers with no pipeline alternative, and a significant importer of Gulf urea for its rice and vegetable agriculture. A full Persian Gulf shutdown would represent an existential economic crisis for Japan, requiring emergency rationing, international assistance, and an accelerated nuclear restart programme. Japan’s government has long identified Gulf security as a core strategic interest — and for good reason.
India: Scale Makes It Uniquely Dangerous
India faces critical exposure on oil and urea, and significant exposure on LNG. What makes India’s situation particularly alarming is scale: with 1.4 billion people, a fuel subsidy system that creates enormous fiscal pressure when prices rise, minimal strategic reserves, and a large poor population with little financial resilience, the social consequences of a simultaneous oil and fertiliser shock would be catastrophic. India would face simultaneous fuel inflation, agricultural input collapse, food price spikes, and foreign exchange depletion. The political stability implications would extend well beyond India’s borders.
Pakistan: The Fragile State Scenario
Pakistan faces severe exposure on oil and LNG, and significant exposure on urea. Critically, Pakistan begins any crisis from a position of chronic fiscal and foreign exchange weakness. A Gulf shutdown would rapidly exhaust its ability to finance import bills, potentially triggering sovereign default, currency collapse, and widespread civil unrest. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal makes its potential destabilisation a matter of global security concern, not merely an economic one.
South Korea and Taiwan: Industrial Economies at Risk
Both nations face extreme oil and LNG exposure, and their economies are globally systemically important in ways that extend their vulnerability internationally. South Korea’s steel, chemicals, and shipbuilding, and Taiwan’s semiconductor fabs, supply global industries. Their disruption would cascade through global manufacturing and technology supply chains in ways that a comparable shock to a less industrially specialised economy would not.
Which Countries Are Most Insulated?
Not all nations face equal exposure. Several are significantly better positioned to withstand a Gulf shutdown, either because they produce their own energy, have diversified supply, or hold large strategic reserves.
United States.
The US has achieved near-energy-independence through its shale oil and gas revolution. It is a net oil exporter and the world’s largest LNG exporter. It produces large quantities of domestic urea. A Gulf shutdown would raise global prices and affect US consumers, but the supply shock would not directly threaten US energy security. The US is best placed of all major economies.
Canada.
Canada is a major oil sands and pipeline gas producer, self-sufficient in energy and a significant fertiliser exporter. Its exposure to a Gulf shutdown is primarily through global price effects rather than supply disruption.
Russia.
Russia produces large volumes of oil, gas, and urea, and will likely benefit economically from a Gulf shutdown through higher global prices for its exports. Its energy self-sufficiency is near-total.
Norway.
A major oil and gas producer with minimal Gulf dependency. Norway would benefit from higher global energy prices.
Brazil (energy).
Brazil’s deep-water oil production makes it largely self-sufficient in crude oil. Its LNG exposure is limited. Its vulnerability is concentrated in urea, where it is critically dependent (as described above).
Historical Context and Strategic Reserves
The 1973 oil embargo — which removed roughly 4 million barrels per day from global markets — caused a fourfold increase in oil prices and contributed to severe recessions across the industrialised world. The current potential disruption would be five times larger in volume terms. The 1979 Iranian Revolution removed approximately 4–5 million barrels per day temporarily; the Iran-Iraq War’s tanker attacks in the 1980s rattled markets without fully closing the Strait. No historical episode provides a true precedent for a complete, sustained Gulf shutdown.
Strategic petroleum reserves maintained by IEA member nations — totalling around 1.2–1.5 billion barrels — could theoretically replace several months of lost Gulf supply if fully released. In practice, coordinated release at the required scale has never been attempted, and the logistical, political, and market-calming challenges would be formidable. Strategic gas and fertiliser reserves are far more limited and will be exhausted much faster.
Conclusion
The Persian Gulf is not merely an important trade route — it is a structural dependency baked into the global economy over seven decades. The simultaneous disruption of oil, LNG, and urea flows from the region constitute a polycrisis of exceptional severity: an energy shock, an industrial shock, and a food security crisis arriving together, reinforcing one another, and challenging the capacity of governments, international institutions, and markets to respond.
Decades of optimisation around cost efficiency — concentrating energy production, fertiliser manufacture, and shipping in the most economical locations — has created a system that is efficient in stable conditions but catastrophically fragile under stress. If Iran is able to sustain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more, it will enjoy significant leverage in negotiations to end the blockade.
This seems to be the most interesting section. What is the crop yield difference of a field using urea vs not? What alternatives to urea exist? I know literally nothing about this.
EDIT: A quick AI ask says anywhere from 50% to 120%, depending on crop. So we’re looking at some producers potentially halving their output.
The thing to understand is the nitrogen cycle.
Nitrogen usually makes 3 bonds, and can triple-bond with itself (and also with carbon). Triple bonds are even stronger than double bonds, which is why nitrogen gas (N2) is so inert. >70% of the Earth’s atmosphere is made up of N2. It doesn’t turn into other things unless you have a high energy input, or a catalyst, or both.
As living things process nitrogen compounds, they generate ammonia (NH3), which is a toxic gas that must be disposed of. Ammonia has a higher enthalpy state (chemically bonded energy) than nitrogen gas does, and at a certain rate it will react to form the latter. Each “amine group” (NH2 on a branch of a molecule) from a protein or nucleic acid gets broken down into ammonia.
Very small organisms can just have the ammonia “bubble” straight out of the cell. Most multicellular organisms need to manage it inside their bodies. To keep it from messing with the chemistry of cells, it gets turned into larger compounds and then those are what’s excreted.
Urea dissolves well in water, and is the main solute in urine. It’s 2 amine groups connected to a C=O center. You can also have uric acid which is a double carbon ring with a bunch of nitrogens taking the place of carbons (DNA is one of the major instances of this), but it’s less water-soluble. Uric acid is often excreted by birds and reptiles.
For growing things, you need carbon and hydrogen and oxygen, but the next big 3 are nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Carbon comes from carbon dioxide in the air and oxygen and hydrogen come from rainfall. So fertilizers are usually N/P/K. Nitrogen is for amino acids and lots of other things, phosphorus is for stuff like ATP which is an elementary container for immediate point-use energy, and potassium is for things like salts/ions that regulate electric charges and electric or tonic (measure of how much stuff is dissolved in the physical medium) stability. P and K are their own cycles with imminent bottlenecks for industrial civilization.
For the longest time, almost all of the usable nitrogen (amine groups) amongst living things came from nitrogen-fixing bacteria, with a tiny amount coming from lightning strikes and stuff. Those bacteria had found a way to break the N2 bond at a very slow rate, and make ammonia out of it. Some organisms, especially plants in the bean family, create ideal environments for these bacteria, so they can harvest the ammonia for amino acids. Other plants (and animals) then rely on the “nitrogen-fixing plants” as a source of amine groups and other nitrogen biochemistry. This is what yielded all the protein in the biosphere, for hundreds of millions of years. You’d rotate your grains with peas or beans to get the nitrogen back in the soil, because broadfields of grains would deplete all the available nitrogen compounds.
Industrial urea (NH2-CO-NH2) is made from natural gas (CH4) and nitrogen gas, with a certain metal alloy serving as a catalyst. This was developed in Germany in the 1900s-1910s, and then quickly spread all over the world because while it’s energy intensive, it’s faster and more productive compared to the organic pathway. This allowed farmers to just buy a bag of chemicals to dust over their fields, instead of interspersing different crops or waiting an extra year.
We could just go back to the organic way of fixing nitrogen, but we’ve been using the quick fix for over a century and all our consumption habits are built around it. We could also put our urine to use, instead of flushing and filtering and sedimenting it as waste.
The reason the US started this war might be becoming more clear.
Global competition with the US was rising, especially non-dollar markets, so they decided to rule the ashes.
(presuming the US is actually thinking long-term about this, which isn’t guaranteed)
If this were an intentional outcome we’d be able to find some thinktank of ghouls talking about or planning it.
hell yea piss nation
alternatively, it’s possible that nations who are strongly reliant on the US’s food exports and have been turned into cash crop harvesters would be hit hardest by the crisis and turn into political pressure cookers, while countries that are more independent would be able to shift towards expanding/diversifying their crops to make up for the lack of fertilizer, and/or becoming closer to China, who will only be producing more renewable energy infrastructure as time goes by and thus able to somewhat alleviate the fossil fuel shortages. not to mention China’s repeated advances in agricultural science.
so both China or the US could stand to gain depending on who can plot a more coherent forward course through the crisis
That’s how it is. In a crisis it all comes down to who has the better more resilient system and superior planning. This is not a revolutionary juncture for the US per say (since a domestic class society in the US is still capable of standing), but for many global south countries, it’s gonna be one very soon when the choice becomes “keep being a neocolony or stay alive”.
Indeed, by my calculations, a baseline of about 7500 tonnes per day. That’ll come in really handy when the extractive industry capitulates.
I live in Canada but my collapse plan has always been a CW sort of plan. Marxists have been saying communism or barbarism and it looks like we’re going the barbarism route. Obviously entirely the faulty of the Zionazi duopoly. Iran is still being too circumspect. They need a nuke yesterday