Image is of a Khorramshahr-4 medium range ballistic missile, which has a range of about 2000km.
As I said in the last megathread, trying to figure out what exactly is happening is becoming ever more difficult. The gist of things is that Iran has, very justifiably, refused to negotiate (assassinating their leader and striking their country with hundreds of missiles in the middle of negotiations causes some reluctance to return to the table, I suppose). Censorship across the Middle East has further ramped up, with reportedly extreme punishments for posting footage of Iranian strikes online. From what I can gather, Iran’s number of strikes have stabilized at a comfortable daily rate, with strikes into both the Gulf monarchies and Occupied Palestine continuing apace. Official charts of these strikes over time seem very disconnected from reality on the ground, but again, it’s hard to really get at the specifics.
The messaging on how long the war is expected to last is rather muddled on both sides. The Trump administration fluctuates more than daily - and even sometimes in the same speech - on whether the war is already won or whether it’s going to last months longer. The US seems to be coming up a new possible scheme every few hours: a ground invasion with the Kurds? A ground invasion without the Kurds? An amphibious assault? A series of commando operations to steal Iranian uranium? A massive parachuting operation into Tehran? Fuck it, let’s just send the Navy into the Strait of Hormuz? There doesn’t seem to be a coherent plan for continuing hostilities beyond firing more and more of a limited stockpile of cruise missiles into mostly non-military targets, hitting easily replaceable drone and missile launchers with a limited stockpile of drones, and burning a limited stockpile of interceptors at an astounding rate (and, in the process, disarming every other Western-aligned country of their interceptors).
Meanwhile, from Iran, I’ve seen rumors and reports from classic anonymous “senior IRGC officials” (no doubt some invented by Zionists to sow confusion), that I don’t know how to substantiate, ranging anywhere from “If the US pulls back their forces now, we will restart negotiations,” to “It doesn’t matter what the US or the Zionists do or say, we aren’t stopping until every last trace of Zionism in the Middle East has been extinguished,” to a few positions in between those poles. Despite the damage to infrastructure in Iran, it doesn’t seem like there has been any political or social fracturing. Not to speak too soon - perhaps the West will start earnestly trying to overfly Iranian territory to drop their very plentiful bombs soon - but every indication is that there will be no regime change nor societal collapse in Iran in the short and medium term.
The US is desperately trying - and mostly failing - to keep a lid on the economic firestorm they have ignited. There has been much ado about oil prices and oil futures and indexes and what all the myriad Lines going up and down signify and things like that, which is befitting such a financialized empire which is so disconnected from the actual physical flows of materials and much more attuned to vibes and speeches. The only thing I’m personally paying much attention to on the economic front is the drones and missiles slamming into fossil fuel infrastructure, the Hormuz blockade, and the resulting global shockwave of shortages, stoppages, closures, bankruptcies, and force majeures spreading out from the epicenter that is Iran.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Reply to this post with additional material on how to participate in the anti-war movement.
Site is starting to slow down for some. please upload videos to other sites then post the link here instead of directly embedding them into the site. If you have posted embedded videos to this page before, when you have the time, please edit your comments containing the videos and swap them out for off-site links.
Try to follow rule 6 a bit harder while the conflict is actively ongoing to keep the news mega clear and on topic.
General notice: do not use dd geopolitics as a source of information as it it ran by the fascist party ACP and its fascist collaborators.
Stop posting AI slop to the mega. If you can’t verify something, don’t post it.
BTW Israelis are still getting alerts every hour.
With the very few videos we’ve seen, and given that those videos show intercepted being pretty much ineffective, it’s fair to say these guys are getting pummeled.
Remember what that one guy said during the 12-day war:
Every time I look at this - it gets worse.
Hundred million will starve is an analysis I heard before the war started as a prediction by Dr. Roy Casagranda.
Now Larry Johnson has come out with tables and data, predicting hundreds of millions: https://sonar21.com/choke-point-the-global-economic-consequences-of-the-persian-gulf-shutdown/
Buy canned food and rice now. Get your loved ones and comrades prepared. Don’t worry about my plans to instigate panic buying. This is extremely serious, actually get ready for your own sake.
article part 1 of 3:
How the disruption of oil, liquefied natural gas, and urea exports will cascade through the world economy
The Persian Gulf is the most consequential body of water in the global economy. Its narrow exit — the Strait of Hormuz, just 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point — acts as a valve through which flows an extraordinary share of the world’s energy and agricultural inputs. A sustained closure of that valve by Iran will trigger an economic shock with few historical precedents.
Let’s look at the three commodity categories most exposed to such a disruption: crude oil and refined petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and urea, the nitrogen fertiliser upon which modern agriculture depends. Together, these three flows underpin not just energy markets but global food security, industrial production, and the fiscal stability of dozens of nations. The Strait of Hormuz: A Single Point of Failure
Roughly 20–21 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, representing approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and around 30% of seaborne crude trade. The Gulf states bordering this corridor — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and Qatar — collectively hold the majority of the world’s proven oil reserves and a dominant share of global LNG export capacity.
There is no adequate alternative. The East-West Pipeline across Saudi Arabia (Petroline) can carry around 5 million barrels per day, and the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline in the UAE adds limited bypass capacity. But these routes are insufficient to compensate for a full shutdown, and are themselves vulnerable to sabotage. For the first time in history the oil has stopped flowing. Oil: The Immediate Shock
The abrupt closure of Persian Gulf oil exports will constitute the largest supply shock in the history of petroleum markets — larger in absolute terms than the 1973 Arab oil embargo or the Iranian Revolution of 1979, both of which removed far smaller volumes, if Iran maintains the blockade for a month or longer. The International Energy Agency estimates that OECD strategic reserves could theoretically cushion a disruption for several months, but the psychological and speculative impact on oil prices would be immediate and severe.
Analysts and historical precedent suggest that oil prices could spike to anywhere between $150 and $250 per barrel — or potentially higher if markets judged the disruption likely to be prolonged. At such prices, the consequences would radiate rapidly through the global economy:
Fuel costs and consumer prices.
Petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and heating oil prices have all surged. In major consuming economies — the United States, Europe, China, Japan, India — consumer price inflation will accelerate sharply with a prolonged disruption. Households will face dramatically higher energy bills and transport costs within weeks.
Industrial contraction.
Energy-intensive manufacturing sectors — petrochemicals, cement, steel, aluminium, glass — will face crippling input cost increases. Many would reduce output or shut down. Supply chains across the global economy would seize as freight costs soared.
Aviation and shipping.
Aviation fuel costs would make large swaths of commercial aviation economically unviable. Shipping freight rates, already elevated by fuel costs, would compound broader supply chain disruption.
Recession risk.
Every major oil price shock since the 1970s has been followed by a global economic recession. A shock of this magnitude would almost certainly do the same. The IMF and World Bank have historically estimated that a $10 per barrel sustained rise in oil prices reduces global GDP growth by around 0.2–0.5 percentage points; a shock ten or twenty times larger would be categorically different in nature.
Here are the most vulnerable countries to this shock:
Japan
Japan is the world’s most structurally vulnerable major economy to a Gulf oil shock. It imports approximately 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar as its dominant suppliers. Japan has almost no domestic oil production, very limited alternative import infrastructure, and a dense industrial base dependent on petroleum. Its strategic reserves — among the largest in the world at around 150 days of consumption — provide a buffer, but not immunity. A prolonged closure lasting more than six months would force severe rationing, industrial curtailment, and recession. Japan’s post-Fukushima decision to phase down nuclear power has deepened its vulnerability by reducing the one energy source that could partly substitute.
South Korea
South Korea imports over 70% of its crude from the Middle East, with the Gulf states as its largest suppliers. Like Japan, it has negligible domestic production. Its economy is heavily industrial — semiconductors, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, and steel — all energy-intensive sectors that would face rapid input cost crises. South Korea maintains strategic reserves of approximately 100 days. Its proximity to Japan means both nations would compete for limited alternative supply from West Africa, North America, and Russia, driving prices higher still.
India
India is the world’s third-largest oil importer and sources roughly 60–65% of its crude from the Gulf region, primarily Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It has limited domestic production and strategic reserves of only around 10–15 days — among the smallest relative to import volume of any major economy. India’s fuel subsidy architecture means the government would face enormous fiscal pressure as global oil prices surged, at the same moment that import costs were consuming foreign exchange reserves. For India’s 1.4 billion population — many of whom have limited financial buffers — the pass-through of energy and food cost increases would be devastating. India’s industrial heartland, its agricultural sector (which depends heavily on diesel for irrigation pumps), and its nascent manufacturing base would all be severely disrupted.
Taiwan
Taiwan imports almost all of its energy requirements and sources a significant majority of its oil from the Gulf. As the world’s primary producer of advanced semiconductors, a disruption to Taiwan’s energy supply would carry consequences far beyond its own economy — threatening global technology supply chains. Taiwan’s strategic reserves are modest, and alternative supply routes would be expensive and slow to establish.
Pakistan and Bangladesh
Both nations are heavily dependent on Gulf oil imports and have almost no strategic reserves, limited foreign exchange, and large populations with high fuel and food price sensitivity. Pakistan in particular has endured recurring foreign exchange crises; a surge in import costs would likely trigger a balance-of-payments collapse. For Bangladesh, fuel price increases would threaten the cost competitiveness of its garment sector — the backbone of its export economy — as well as the diesel-powered irrigation that supports its rice production.
Sub-Saharan Africa (Particularly Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania)
Many sub-Saharan African nations depend on Gulf oil for a large majority of their refined product imports, with minimal domestic refining capacity and no strategic stockpiles. Countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania would face acute fuel shortages, with knock-on effects on transport, electricity generation, and agricultural supply chains. Governments with limited foreign reserves would be unable to sustain imports at elevated prices for any prolonged period.
LNG: The Gas Markets Upended
Qatar is by some measures the world’s largest single exporter of liquefied natural gas, accounting for roughly 20–22% of global LNG trade. Together with the UAE and other Gulf producers, the Persian Gulf region represents a pillar of the global gas supply architecture. The disruption of this supply arrives into a global gas market already structurally tighter following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the reconfiguration of European energy supply.
Japan (Again the Most Exposed)
Japan is also the world’s largest or second-largest LNG importer, sourcing a dominant share from Qatar and other Gulf producers. LNG powers roughly a third of Japan’s electricity generation following its post-Fukushima nuclear drawdown. A loss of Gulf LNG would immediately threaten grid stability, with cascading effects across manufacturing, services, and residential supply. Japan has limited LNG storage capacity and no pipeline gas import option. The combined loss of Gulf oil and Gulf LNG would place Japan under extraordinary simultaneous pressure on two of its three primary energy sources.
South Korea
South Korea is consistently among the top three LNG importers globally, with Qatar one of its largest suppliers. Gas fires a substantial share of South Korea’s power generation. Like Japan, it has no pipeline import option and limited domestic gas production, making seaborne LNG the only supply mechanism. Power shortages would ripple through its semiconductor fabs and shipyards — both globally critical industries.
European Union — Particularly Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France
Continued…
This is extremely serious, actually get ready for your own sake.
What does being ready look like? How much food do you think people should be piling up and don’t you think that in itself is going to cause rationing to be instigated by affected countries?
One thing to get ready is to learn to make decent tasting food out of simpler ingredients. Even if you are living in a place that is more insulated from scarcity, shit will get more expensive. Learn to cook plant based stuff, especially with low complexity ingredients (e.g. Flour, dried beans, rice, frozen veg, not so much fresh vegetables or prepackaged/processed things). Learn to grow a garden - even balcony sized outdoor spaces can make a lot of kale or other hardy greens. Better still, actually be vegan because it’s the right thing to do even if this war wasn’t happening.
Then eat mujadara in solidarity
I think it comes down to what you can reasonably afford.
Food expires eventually. I would say having 3 months of food would be ideal. So, like, a few bags of rice and 50 cans of protein per person.
So I would say a maximum of 4 years, because otherwise the stored food will likely go bad before you eat it.
Where is anyone supposed to put 3 months of food ? I barely have space to store a week of food.
Cool dry place. Maybe the floor of a closet? Layer of cans under the bed. Some in the pantry. Under a couch?
part 2:
European Union — Particularly Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France
European nations pivoted heavily toward LNG imports after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine severed their pipeline gas relationships. Qatar has emerged as one of Europe’s most important LNG suppliers. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France have all invested in LNG import terminals and contracted long-term Gulf supply. A Gulf LNG disruption would arrive into a European gas market with reduced pipeline alternatives from Russia, creating acute supply shortfalls particularly in winter months. Germany — Europe’s largest economy and its industrial engine — would face the most severe manufacturing impact, given its gas-intensive chemical, glass, and steel industries.
China
China has surpassed Japan as the world’s largest LNG importer in recent years. It sources a significant share of its LNG from Qatar and other Gulf exporters. However, China has a partial mitigant unavailable to most others: significant pipeline gas imports from Russia and Central Asia, which could be ramped up to partly offset Gulf LNG losses. This makes China more resilient than Japan or South Korea, but still substantially exposed, particularly for provinces distant from pipeline infrastructure where LNG-fired power dominates.
Pakistan
Pakistan has become deeply reliant on LNG imports to fuel its power sector following the depletion of domestic gas reserves. It sources the overwhelming majority of its LNG from Gulf producers. Power cuts — already a chronic problem — would become catastrophic. Industrial output, water pumping, and basic services would all be impaired. Pakistan’s fiscal position is too fragile to sustain premium spot LNG purchases on global markets for any extended period.
Urea: The Overlooked Catastrophe
Of the three commodity shocks, the disruption of urea exports from the Persian Gulf may be the least immediately visible — but could prove the most enduring in its consequences. Urea is the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser. It is synthesised from natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process, and the Gulf states — particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman — are among the world’s largest producers and exporters, collectively accounting for a significant share of global urea trade.
The dependency of modern agriculture on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser is difficult to overstate. It is estimated that roughly half of the nitrogen in the human body today passed through the Haber-Bosch process at some point — meaning that artificial fertiliser now sustains approximately half of the world’s population. A collapse in urea supply would threaten crop yields on a global scale.
Crop yield decline.
Without adequate nitrogen fertiliser, yields of staple crops — wheat, rice, maize, soy — would fall dramatically within one to two growing seasons. The effect would not be uniform: wealthy agricultural nations with domestic fertiliser capacity or large stockpiles (the United States, Canada, parts of Europe) would be more insulated. The developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, would face acute shortages.
Food price inflation.
Global food prices, already elevated by conflict-related supply disruptions in recent years, would surge further. The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s food price index would likely break historical records. Bread, rice, and staple grain prices would become unaffordable for hundreds of millions of people.
Geopolitical instability.
Historical evidence linking sharp food price spikes to political instability is robust. The Arab Spring of 2011 coincided with a period of record food prices. A global urea shortage and its downstream consequences for food security would heighten the risk of civil unrest, state fragility, and humanitarian crisis across numerous countries.
India
India is the world’s largest urea importer by volume, consuming enormous quantities to support its vast agricultural sector. Despite significant domestic urea production, India’s demand consistently outpaces supply, making it heavily reliant on Gulf imports, primarily from Oman, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. A supply cut would threaten yields of wheat, rice, and pulses across millions of smallholder farms. Given that Indian agriculture supports the livelihoods of roughly half the population, the social and political consequences of a fertiliser shortage would be profound. Food inflation would accelerate sharply and could threaten political stability.
Brazil
Brazil is among the world’s top urea importers, having dramatically expanded its agricultural output — it is now the world’s largest soy and beef exporter, and a major corn and sugar producer. Brazil produces almost no urea domestically at scale and imports a very large share from Gulf producers, particularly from the UAE and Qatar. A urea supply disruption would threaten Brazilian agricultural yields across the Cerrado and Amazon frontier regions, affecting both domestic food supply and Brazil’s critical role as a global food exporter. The consequences would ripple through global commodity markets.
Australia
Australia is one of the world’s most import-dependent nations for urea, sourcing the overwhelming majority from Gulf producers — particularly Qatar and the UAE. It has virtually no domestic urea production capacity. Australian wheat farmers, who produce a globally significant crop, apply large quantities of nitrogen fertiliser; a supply cut would reduce yields and threaten Australia’s agricultural export revenues. Australia is also the world’s largest diesel exhaust fluid (AdBlue) consumer relative to its size, as this urea-derived product is required by most modern diesel vehicles and engines — a secondary vulnerability that became apparent during a 2021 supply shock.
Sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Mozambique, Nigeria)
Sub-Saharan African nations with significant smallholder agricultural sectors are acutely exposed to urea supply disruption. Most have no domestic production and rely heavily on Gulf imports, often through the Indian Ocean trade routes. Fertiliser usage rates in Africa are already among the world’s lowest — meaning yields are already suboptimal — but further supply cuts and price increases would price smallholder farmers out of the market entirely. In Ethiopia, Tanzania, Mozambique, and parts of Nigeria, this would translate directly into food production shortfalls, price spikes, and heightened hunger. The World Food Programme has repeatedly identified fertiliser availability as a critical determinant of food security across the region.
Southeast Asia — Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines
Southeast Asian rice-producing nations — Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines — rely heavily on imported urea to sustain their paddy yields. These countries are among the world’s largest rice exporters and form a critical buffer for global food markets. A collapse in their urea supply would reduce rice output, sending prices higher across Asia and the Middle East, where rice is a dietary staple for billions.
Continued…
part 3:
Urea Exposure: Country Risk Summary
The Compounding Effect
Several countries face acute exposure across all three commodity categories simultaneously. These nations represent the most extreme cases of vulnerability.
Japan: The Triple Threat
Japan is uniquely exposed on all three fronts: it is the world’s most Gulf-dependent major oil importer, one of the world’s largest LNG importers with no pipeline alternative, and a significant importer of Gulf urea for its rice and vegetable agriculture. A full Persian Gulf shutdown would represent an existential economic crisis for Japan, requiring emergency rationing, international assistance, and an accelerated nuclear restart programme. Japan’s government has long identified Gulf security as a core strategic interest — and for good reason.
India: Scale Makes It Uniquely Dangerous
India faces critical exposure on oil and urea, and significant exposure on LNG. What makes India’s situation particularly alarming is scale: with 1.4 billion people, a fuel subsidy system that creates enormous fiscal pressure when prices rise, minimal strategic reserves, and a large poor population with little financial resilience, the social consequences of a simultaneous oil and fertiliser shock would be catastrophic. India would face simultaneous fuel inflation, agricultural input collapse, food price spikes, and foreign exchange depletion. The political stability implications would extend well beyond India’s borders.
Pakistan: The Fragile State Scenario
Pakistan faces severe exposure on oil and LNG, and significant exposure on urea. Critically, Pakistan begins any crisis from a position of chronic fiscal and foreign exchange weakness. A Gulf shutdown would rapidly exhaust its ability to finance import bills, potentially triggering sovereign default, currency collapse, and widespread civil unrest. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal makes its potential destabilisation a matter of global security concern, not merely an economic one.
South Korea and Taiwan: Industrial Economies at Risk
Both nations face extreme oil and LNG exposure, and their economies are globally systemically important in ways that extend their vulnerability internationally. South Korea’s steel, chemicals, and shipbuilding, and Taiwan’s semiconductor fabs, supply global industries. Their disruption would cascade through global manufacturing and technology supply chains in ways that a comparable shock to a less industrially specialised economy would not.
Which Countries Are Most Insulated?
Not all nations face equal exposure. Several are significantly better positioned to withstand a Gulf shutdown, either because they produce their own energy, have diversified supply, or hold large strategic reserves.
United States.
The US has achieved near-energy-independence through its shale oil and gas revolution. It is a net oil exporter and the world’s largest LNG exporter. It produces large quantities of domestic urea. A Gulf shutdown would raise global prices and affect US consumers, but the supply shock would not directly threaten US energy security. The US is best placed of all major economies.
Canada.
Canada is a major oil sands and pipeline gas producer, self-sufficient in energy and a significant fertiliser exporter. Its exposure to a Gulf shutdown is primarily through global price effects rather than supply disruption.
Russia.
Russia produces large volumes of oil, gas, and urea, and will likely benefit economically from a Gulf shutdown through higher global prices for its exports. Its energy self-sufficiency is near-total.
Norway.
A major oil and gas producer with minimal Gulf dependency. Norway would benefit from higher global energy prices.
Brazil (energy).
Brazil’s deep-water oil production makes it largely self-sufficient in crude oil. Its LNG exposure is limited. Its vulnerability is concentrated in urea, where it is critically dependent (as described above).
Historical Context and Strategic Reserves
The 1973 oil embargo — which removed roughly 4 million barrels per day from global markets — caused a fourfold increase in oil prices and contributed to severe recessions across the industrialised world. The current potential disruption would be five times larger in volume terms. The 1979 Iranian Revolution removed approximately 4–5 million barrels per day temporarily; the Iran-Iraq War’s tanker attacks in the 1980s rattled markets without fully closing the Strait. No historical episode provides a true precedent for a complete, sustained Gulf shutdown.
Strategic petroleum reserves maintained by IEA member nations — totalling around 1.2–1.5 billion barrels — could theoretically replace several months of lost Gulf supply if fully released. In practice, coordinated release at the required scale has never been attempted, and the logistical, political, and market-calming challenges would be formidable. Strategic gas and fertiliser reserves are far more limited and will be exhausted much faster.
Conclusion
The Persian Gulf is not merely an important trade route — it is a structural dependency baked into the global economy over seven decades. The simultaneous disruption of oil, LNG, and urea flows from the region constitute a polycrisis of exceptional severity: an energy shock, an industrial shock, and a food security crisis arriving together, reinforcing one another, and challenging the capacity of governments, international institutions, and markets to respond.
Decades of optimisation around cost efficiency — concentrating energy production, fertiliser manufacture, and shipping in the most economical locations — has created a system that is efficient in stable conditions but catastrophically fragile under stress. If Iran is able to sustain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more, it will enjoy significant leverage in negotiations to end the blockade.
Urea: The Overlooked Catastrophe
Of the three commodity shocks, the disruption of urea exports from the Persian Gulf may be the least immediately visible — but could prove the most enduring in its consequences. Urea is the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser. It is synthesised from natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process, and the Gulf states — particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman — are among the world’s largest producers and exporters, collectively accounting for a significant share of global urea trade.
The dependency of modern agriculture on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser is difficult to overstate. It is estimated that roughly half of the nitrogen in the human body today passed through the Haber-Bosch process at some point — meaning that artificial fertiliser now sustains approximately half of the world’s population. A collapse in urea supply would threaten crop yields on a global scale.
Crop yield decline. Without adequate nitrogen fertiliser, yields of staple crops — wheat, rice, maize, soy — would fall dramatically within one to two growing seasons. The effect would not be uniform: wealthy agricultural nations with domestic fertiliser capacity or large stockpiles (the United States, Canada, parts of Europe) would be more insulated. The developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, would face acute shortages.
This seems to be the most interesting section. What is the crop yield difference of a field using urea vs not? What alternatives to urea exist? I know literally nothing about this.
EDIT: A quick AI ask says anywhere from 50% to 120%, depending on crop. So we’re looking at some producers potentially halving their output.
I live in Canada but my collapse plan has always been a CW sort of plan. Marxists have been saying communism or barbarism and it looks like we’re going the barbarism route. Obviously entirely the faulty of the Zionazi duopoly. Iran is still being too circumspect. They need a nuke yesterday
United States.
The US has achieved near-energy-independence through its shale oil and gas revolution. It is a net oil exporter and the world’s largest LNG exporter. It produces large quantities of domestic urea. A Gulf shutdown would raise global prices and affect US consumers, but the supply shock would not directly threaten US energy security. The US is best placed of all major economies.
The reason the US started this war might be becoming more clear.
Global competition with the US was rising, especially non-dollar markets, so they decided to rule the ashes.
(presuming the US is actually thinking long-term about this, which isn’t guaranteed)
If this were an intentional outcome we’d be able to find some thinktank of ghouls talking about or planning it.
what sources are people using to stay informed?
Dodgy osint channels full of propaganda and nazis is just about the only source for anything. Also completely unreliable.
Here is a comment asking a similar question from the last megathread with a bunch of links.
Comment I saw:
“My mom (Swedish) has completely switched on Israel because of the gas prices, she went from kinda blaming Palestine for the genocide to now wanting to nuke Israel and America for their crimes against the people of the middle east.”
Mashallah, Donald turning the western treatlerites into third-worldists
Part of a Khorramshahr series (I’m guessing Khorramshahr 2) ballistic missile’s submunition bus managed to survive re entry and make it back to earth, with inscriptions intact. Probably released submunitions at a very high altitude for this to occur.
Unlike the AI slop fake images of inscriptions joking about Epstein Island, the Iranians are actually inscribing heartfelt condolences for their fallen comrades and verses from the Quran on their missiles. Translate a few and you’ll understand them. Any native speakers please feel free to reply with a translation.
It’s gotta be fucking miserable to live in Israel right now. Couldn’t happen to a nicer group of people.
I’ve been looking at the Israeli alerts site, and I don’t think I can accurately distinguish Iranian and Hezbollah attacks anymore.
There’s also Iraqi resistance and soon Ansar Allah.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Am I correct to infer that there is an unprecedented concentration and expenditure of US &co military resources and attention?
So could/should/is/will anybody outside the immediate combatants take advantage of this situation to further their own aims? whether in some form of alliance with Iran, or for their own unrelated ends? Is the iron hot?
I think both the Turks and the Egyptians have the strategic incentive to act now against the Zionists. Unfortunately, I don’t think either one would dare. Perhaps the Turks if the US fucked up enough in riling up the Kurds
It is a truism that most militaries around the globe, especially Egypt’s, are designed mostly for domestic repression.
Turkey will join on the side of Israel if they join at all, same with Egypt.
Egypt would collapse on day 1 of the war
which is why they will most likely sit there and do nothing.
Yeah probably…
No way, the turkish people would burn the country to the ground
Doubt it. They cheered as Turkey used ISIS mercenaries to destroy all the opponents of zionism and carved Syria up with Israel and the US.
Not if it’s sold as protecting Iranian Turks from Kurdish terrorist doing masacres.
But to get to that point, the Iranian state has to be in a very bad shape, and that’s not going to happen.
Hmm Sudan maybe?
NEW — 🇰🇷🇺🇸🇮🇷 Korean media published an image from today, showing the US dismantling its THAAD and Patriot systems from S-Korea, to send to the Middle East.
from the chosun daily
US Relocates THAAD From South Korea to Middle East Amid Iran War
The United States, engaged in a war with Iran, has begun relocating part of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system deployed in South Korea to the Middle East, the Washington Post (WP) reported on the 9th (local time), citing two U.S. Department of Defense officials.
According to the WP, the U.S. military expended $5.6 billion (approximately 8.26 trillion Korean won) worth of ammunition in the first two days of airstrikes against Iran, rapidly depleting advanced weaponry. As advanced weapon stockpiles neared exhaustion, the U.S. military has been redeploying air defense assets from the Indo-Pacific region. Additionally, Patriot interceptor missiles are being diverted from other regions to counter Iran’s drone and ballistic missile attacks.
Kim you can do the funniest thing now
perhaps we should try and hook up a generator to the US constantly pivoting to and away from Asia to generate electricity in the coming crisis
they could’ve destroyed that thing with a hypersonic if they wanted to
Anyone want to bet it won’t last a week into its deployment?
One more thaad for Iran to destroy
That picture is PATRIOT PAC 3 MSE, not THAAD.
Also the part that China is most upset about, the AN/TPY-2 radar, is staying in South Korea. The US is moving a few launchers and interceptors for extra ammunition in case it’s needed.
https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260310113000504
Machine translated:
While the South Korean and US military authorities are keeping quiet about this, President Lee Jae-myung stated at a cabinet meeting held at the Blue House on the 10th, "We are opposing the USFK’s withdrawal of some air defense weapons for our country’s military needs, but it is also a stark reality that we cannot fully enforce our opinion."
this is so THAAD. Alexa, play Landslide by Fleetwood Mac
well i’ve been afraid of chaaaangin’ cuz i built my life around you
The funny thing is that Fake Korea took billions of $$$ in yearly loses to get that THAAD. China was very angry, including ordinary people. Their companies were boycotted, sabotaged, kicked out of the country, KPOP is no longer playing in China and so on. And what did they get in return? They probably even had to disassemble and deliver it to the ME themselves
To be an enemy of the US [has its humiliations], but to be a friend [courts actual death from embarrassment]
re @MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net https://hexbear.net/comment/6989735 (just-locked thread)
Several hours ago I saw that Trump claimed they had struck a bunch of “inactive” mine laying vessels, which sounded like he is saying they destroyed some random boats. Is there a special kind of boat to lay mines? Now I watch the videos: it looks like random boats. Very small to be doing much, and I don’t know how big a mine is but surely not too many could be carried on any of those?
Is mining the Straight a good tactical decision? To my simple mind it seems to e somewhat cutting off the nose to spite the face. Once mined, nobody can use it, not them and not their allies. Can you ever get rid of ocean mines? Although Iran has stated it has no imminent plans to negotiate, surely it will eventually wish to dial this down? Unless they plan to invade/occupy israel/US…?? What are the possiblities 1 or 5 years from now if mines get tossed in the water?
Strait is NOT mined. It’s propaganda from the US. IRGC says they’re using missiles and drones to close the strait.
I was asking about the mines on the previous thread, and @Staines@hexbear.net had a very interesting breakdown, the mines are pretty sophisticated and weird:
They use Te-1 mines that sit on the seabed and then launch a rocket (yes, really) up from the seabed into the bottom of detected ships. They’re reported to have a range of about 2 miles, and will be programmed to fire at certain acoustic signatures that have been recorded previously by your submarines and spy ships. If you don’t have a big library of up to date acoustic signatures, you could just remove the IFF feature and tell everyone good luck.
To put this in perspective, the Strait of Hormuz could become very spicy with just a handful of these mines deployed.
The second boat in that video seemed to have some sort of cook off, so it may have possibly had a couple of mines, although it could have been some other sort of ammo though.
Most looked like patrol/fast boats aside from the first one and the docked sub. Not sure any of these would really be used by the IRGC to project naval power, although the Iranian Navy in general wouldn’t be projecting power far from the Iranian coast anyway.
There are dedicated ships to lay mines, these are called Minelayers. These come in with a wide range of sizes and displacements, for the most part they’re very small. Bigger ships like destroyers and cruisers can carry and lay mines if designed that way. Submarines can also be modified to carry mines, that was very common during WW2 and I’m not sure it’s still a feature in today’s subs. And you can get rid of mines, first (and this is very comical) by detonating them with your ship hehe. Second, and the most common, is by using Minesweepers, which is another type of vessel that specializes in defusing or safely detonating naval mines in large areas or Minehunters if you want to destroy individual mines.
If these kinds of vessels looks like random boats it’s because they kinda are! At a first glance they look like tugs and even fishing vessels, not a lot of them are glamorous and most lack big weapon systems like cannons and missile launchers (some can carry CIWS for protection and maybe a small battery of a single 76mm-ish cannon, but that’s about it).
So for example if the US would want to enter the Gulf through a mined Hormuz with full force they would have to send in the Minesweepers first (Helicopters, as far as I’m concerned, can also be used to detect and destroy mines too) BEFORE the main fleet moves in. That puts the Minesweeper fleet at risk of being attacked by small Anti Ship Missile Batteries, small vessels like missile-armed speedboats and midget submarines, but if you send your warships ahead of your minesweepers you could lose a few major units to them. This was the Allied dilemma during the Gallipoli Campaign of WW1, who goes to die first?
I’d imagine they could do a lot of that with drones now. Given that the straight is narrow, I’m sure they could find a way to launch and control these drones from land. That doesn’t really solve the problem of getting ships through the strait. But the US probably doesn’t need to endanger a whole fleet to attempt to destroy Iranian mines.
Even in the Falklands War the British didn’t have enough time for proper minesweeping so they just ordered one of the escorts to go back and forth a few times to see if they explode before the troop ships arrived.
Interesting
I feel like this news is so new that I wouldn’t be surprised to hear by morning that Iran isn’t mining the strait. Trump could just be talking. Is there something to know that I missed?
I thought it sourced to IRGC but I can’t find it now. So either I misread or it has been removed. I was reading AJ earlier but now they say:
spoiler
(03:30 GMT)
Strait of Hormuz ‘turning into a real headache’ for US, Gulf states
By John Holman
Reporting from Washington DC, US
The US president has taken to social media to warn Iran against laying any mines in the Strait of Hormuz. It was quite a convoluted warning, saying the US doesn’t think this has been done, but that if it has been done, then “you better clear them out”.
We think this may have been prompted by media reports citing US military sources who said they thought that Iran was either placing mines or preparing to do so.
Then the US Central Command came out and said on social media that it had struck around 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, this strait is turning into a real headache.
It is a narrow chokepoint, just 34km [21 miles] wide, with Iran controlling one side. Oil tankers from Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE must pass through it to reach international markets. It is their only sea route out of the Gulf. That gives Iran significant leverage.
Now, the US has been talking a lot about how it’s destroyed or is at the precipice of destroying the Iranian Navy, but experts caution that Iran does not need conventional warships to threaten tanker traffic. It could use vessels like mini-submarines or speedboats to do this.
Actually, the US energy secretary claimed this has already started happening in a social media post in the morning. But he then had to delete it because it appeared this was not the case.
I’ve been there. When aren’t the straights a headache?
Old thread locked before I could post this reply:
https://hexbear.net/comment/6989672
Regarding the Ring camera video, the building on the left appears to be Isrotel Tower (32.07665, 34.76738). The building across the street to the east could plausibly be the other one visible. To the west is the US embassy in Tel Aviv.
a good pull in today’s MoA (certified reactionary brainworm free by hexbear patriots)regarding the potential for US seizure of kharg island, the little island that Iran routes most of it’s oil exports through for lack of deepwater ports on mainland Iran. apparently trump has been thinking about kharg since not long after phantom of the opera opened on broadway.
In an interview with a British newspaper back in 1988, an up-and-coming New York property mogul named Donald Trump was asked about his plans for the future. True to form, he had plenty to say, boasting that he might one day run for president and vowing to win back “respect” for America on the world stage. He also had stern words for Iran’s Islamic Republic, already a sworn enemy of America in the wake of the 1979 US hostage crisis.
“They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools,” Trump told The Guardian. “One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.”
taking kharg island makes me think of snake island in ukraine. both ukraine and russia got fucked out of holding that one at various times over their war. kharg is bigger but not wildly so. it is also actually valuable, so Iran would fight for it harder.
Bit idea: they plant an American flag on Kerguelen, declare mission accomplished, and then say “oops, we misheard you”.
Well his other island got shut down, so this tracks
Folks, we are running low on the sexcrime islands. We need so many islands that people will be saying nooo, Mr Trump, we can’t have any more islands. We have too many islands coming out of everywhere.
Wow he’s actually been thinking about Kharg island since early after the revolution.
Talk about playing the long game.
Biding your time for 40 years and then failing catastrophically
Apologies for not participating in the comments so far for this conflict, but I genuinely don’t have anything to contribute yet this time around other than calling the Zionists murderous childkillers, being extremely angry at journalists, and getting into arguments in the megathread with other posters over things that none of us could truly know (like how attrited Iran truly is, etc). Events are moving fast enough right now that I’m just gonna let events play out rather than
with somebody here about the state of Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles and production rates.I would also post more minute-by-minute news, but trying to figure out what’s real and what’s AI or propaganda has proven challenging for me, so I’m already giving almost all media claims/events at least a few hours before they can be somewhat verified and I begin to believe them. Massive claims are made and then withdrawn minutes later, as we just saw with that comment by the US Energy Secretary that the US has helped a tanker transit the Strait, and major statements are assigned to various figures by random OSINT accounts without being verified. And I thought early 2022 was bad.
A few of my observations:
- I feel very vindicated for believing that Hezbollah wasn’t disarmed and destroyed by the post-Nasrallah combat pause and were probably preparing and training instead.
- I cannot physically express how little sympathy I feel for these Gulf monarchies and the rich people who willingly travel to them.
- I’m glad that Iran’s leadership has finally, finally, attained the requisite seriousness for the situation they’ve found themselves in. Here’s hoping we finally escape the seemingly endless cycle of negotiating into war into ceasefires a week or two later into letting the Zionists regroup, then repeat from the beginning. If your winning strategy is attrition and your enemy’s winning strategy is shock and awe, don’t make peace immediately unless you absolutely have to!
- To engage in a little Great Man Theory, as a treat, there’s a chance Sinwar is gonna be seen in retrospect as the man who wiped away the US’s footprint in the Middle East. What a chain of dominoes he triggered.
- I cannot physically express how little sympathy I feel for these Gulf monarchies and the rich people who willingly travel to them.
Problem is most are not rich people. How many migrant workers are stuck there? How many maids (or “Filipinos” to use the local language) are stuck there for every influencer that got made fun of? I found it quite disturbing how it was celebrated or seen as something of no concern at all.
Besides that those are also unavoidable layover stops when traveling between EU and Southeast Asia. Sure sounds cool that the Vietnamese gov somehow promoted “working from home”, but gas stations here were out of gas too, not just in Australia. And I’m just waiting for the day until some random apartment will explode cuz some idiot stockpiled 500l gas next to parked motorbikes. Its just not good. Not even for the countless idiots with already crippling gambling dept / sick relatives who will get financially completely ruined for selling overpriced gas.
Anyway, Vietnam and countries in the region will suffer cuz those airports dont function anymore and tourism is important for the economy. Not that any of this is SO important to make the Iran response unjustified, but I think its also not just universally something to celebrate. Sorry for sounding a bit incoherent.
Real question is whether anyone wilk self-crit and reevaluste which sourcesled them to believe Hezbollag was lying and abandoning thenPalestinians
Why is it okay to spred FUD about people fighti.g for their lives every single day and demabv reassurances that would require aecret information antways
Re: Sinwar, absolutely a hero of the modern age, prophet may be strong but absolutely monumental
https://tankie.tube/w/5uof9qjAVBQDsdgjhRZ1D9
“A previous message from the martyr leader Yahya Sinwar to the leaders of the Arab and Muslim world:
O leaders of the Arabs… O leaders of the Muslims, either you will be recorded in history and your names will be elevated, or you will be recorded in history and the coming nations will curse you.
The decisive stance in this is to align yourselves with the cause of the nation, to align yourselves with the adherence to the constants, with the liberation of Palestine, with the liberation of Al-Quds, and not to be led by the program of Trump and Netanyahu.”
https://t.me/Palresistmirror/86964
With his sacrifice, he may have started the dominos toward the end of Israel
Truly the right person in the right place at the right time; a modern Lenin if I’ve ever seen one.
i feel like hezbollah returning to fight israel was expected because hezbollah didnt desolve or parcially disarmed during the pause even with some israeli attacks during the ceasefire, they were building up strenght again, also if we think it a bit israel cant do things like the pager terror attacks or have good intelligence on hezbollah as they did before.
Yeah, there was a ton of speculation about how effective the anti-Hezbollah operations that the Zionist entity performed during the post-Nasrallah “pause” (as oliveoil said, not actually a pause at all), especially with the Lebanese government talking about their efforts to disarm Hezbollah. Some said that Hezbollah was effectively dead, while others were more optimistic.
Hezbollah has outdone even my own expectations so far. It doesn’t seem like they’ve been degraded at all, and might even be more powerful than before the “pause” began. Or perhaps they’re just more willing to use more manpower and their stockpiles rather than ration it out as they expect the US/Zionists to buckle quickly. Who can say. I can only wonder what the supply line situation looks like with a Zionist-friendly Syria in the way.
Not some, over 10.000 Israel attacks during the “ceasefire”.
I cannot physically express how little sympathy I feel for these Gulf monarchies and the rich people who willingly travel to them.
Oh yeah, my cousin has lived in the UAE for a while now and when the war started and everyone started crying about how they can’t get home, I really didn’t care. He was probably there for money laundering purposes anyway. I still don’t even know if he got home or not. He is on my ‘pay no mind’ list.
Massive claims are made and then withdrawn minutes later, as we just saw with that comment by the US Energy Secretary that the US has helped a tanker transit the Strait, and major statements are assigned to various figures by random OSINT accounts without being verified
Team Trump has been doin this for a while, including his first term. They would say something, it would go up on the financial terminals (like Bloomberg) and the markets would respond. Go short/long first, then say something fake, take profit. When it is about smaller stuff, it would just get picked up by the trading algos. Doing the same thing about an active war (even if you didn’t short oil futures first, but just want to bring down the price) is insane.
Team Trump has been doin this for a while, including his first term.
More than anything it’s astonishing to me how much Trump’s presidencies have depended on imagery and mirages to maintain the sense of a still-powerful America. Obama and Biden were kind of similar, but with Trump it’s almost like a pathological obsession to deceive other countries and pump up his and the US’s image, even to their own short, medium, and long term detriment.
I feel like almost any other president in the position the US is currently in (if they would have gotten to this position, which seems very unlikely) would be willing to back off a little on Iran, make a “good faith gesture” by sending away a carrier group or something similar, ensure the media is presenting the retreat as a “magnanimous act to save a floundering regime and the region as a whole, for the sake of the economy and humanitarian causes” etc etc, and try and negotiate something. Try and really sell America as the reasonable one and Iran as the unreasonable pariah state. But instead it’s just deranged jingoism that is completely disconnected from the situation on the ground, and because Trump is terminally afraid of being called a loser, he cannot back off from this campaign.
It’s one of those uncommon historical situations where the personality of the leader really starts mattering more than it ordinarily would.
Nicholas II’s incompetence had similar world-historical effects. Like even Rasputin was saying “dude entering into ww1 is a bad plan” and he was like “but we will win tho?”
Lenin writes that parliamentary republic is the best possible political shell for the bourgeois. Imo part of this is the ability of the bourgeois to easily change the leader if they go off the rails too much or get too hated
Trump is nicely demonstrating why a presidential republic is sub-optimal for bourgeois interests; all they can do as trump crashes the imperial yacht is have judges wag their fingers and senate/congress say “you cant do that!!”
Massive claims are made and then withdrawn minutes later, as we just saw with that comment by the US Energy Secretary that the US has helped a tanker transit the Strait
It’s wild to me just how blatant they are now. At least with Tonkin there was some plausible deniability that there might have been torpedo boats in the area.
Now they’re just outright spitting in our faces and telling us it’s raining without even the courtesy to try and distract us first.
The operation that initiated the wrecking of the Epstein regime’s power in the region being called “Flood” is so damn poignant.
