A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranians celebrating the beginning of the ceasefire under the framework of Iran’s 10 Points.

Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.

In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.

A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?

One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.

From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • Boise_Idaho [null/void, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    116·
    25 days ago

    https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2042242712246661589

    Here’s my best guess at what’s going on right now. Iran and Israel are in a game of diplomatic chicken, each trying to fracture the other’s military coalition. The Israelis want to either continue the broader war or reduce it in scope by forcing the Iranians to abandon Hezbollah. The Iranians are attempting to exert pressure on the US to restrain Israel and withdraw from the war, while trying to isolate Israel internationally.

    Much of the commentariat on here is focused on the Iranians ‘revealing their weakness’ by not immediately launching a counterattack on Israel. This doesn’t make much sense to me. The Iranians almost immediately played their strongest non-escalatory card by re-closing the strait. Doing so exerts pressure on the US, not on Israel, which shows the Iranians understand the fundamental reality of the power structure they’re up against. The Israelis can only be stopped by forcing the US to restrain them, or taking huge escalatory steps that have a good chance of leading to Israeli nuclear strikes on Iran (desalination plants, energy infrastructure). The closure of the strait denies Trump any claim to a military victory and compounds the economic damage that’s already inevitable at this point.

    Meanwhile, there’s been a flurry of diplomatic activity from Iran. Spain and South Korea are making moves by reopening their embassy in Iran and sending a special envoy to Tehran, respectively. A increasingly long list of countries have made public statements over the past day demanding Lebanon be covered by the ceasefire. Araghchi has been calling everyone in the region over the past 24 hours, and the UAE has publicly condemned the Israeli strikes on Lebanon (very surprising). These are good signs for Iran, which can achieve major gains in Israel’s international isolation by capitalizing on their breaking of the ceasefire.

    Even better are the signs of the normalization of relations with the rest of the world. If this continues, it’ll demonstrate how fundamentally effective the Iranian strategy has been in this war. If they can secure broad international recognition of their right to control and impose tolls on passage through the strait, it’ll be a massive victory. The continued closure of the strait, which the Iranians have made clear is the fault of Israel, will drive a wedge into the coalition currently fighting Iran.

    The Iranians have made dozens of statements asserting they will not abandon Lebanon. And I don’t think it’s politically tenable (internally) for them to do so even if they wanted to. The Israelis aren’t doing particularly well in their ground war against Hezbollah either.

    So we’ll have to wait to see how this plays out. It’s not impossible that the Iranians are in a weakened position, or that they’ll lose their nerve. But I don’t see any reason to assume this is the case as long as the strait remains closed. The current situation is a pressure cooker for the US/Israeli relationship, and the American relationship with the rest of the world. Iranian patience makes sense here.

    Even if the US, Israel, and mediators like Pakistan are entirely perfidious and only negotiating in bad faith, the Iranians have potentially enormous diplomatic gains to make here. It would be foolish and premature not to take advantage of the situation just to bomb Israel a day or a week earlier. The Israelis can take more bombing and survive. A full, long-term strategic defeat of Israel is only possible through the destruction of its relationship with the rest of the world, which is well underway.

    • oliveoil [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
      72·
      25 days ago

      This doesn’t make much sense to me. The Iranians almost immediately played their strongest non-escalatory card by re-closing the strait.

      Even some amongst the anti-Islamic Republic protesters say to me - “how could Iran be backing down if they did that? Iran is in a winning position here.”

      • supafuzz [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        76·
        25 days ago

        closing the strait feels (diplomatically speaking) less like violating a ceasefire than firing does, even if it’s actually a bigger escalation realistically

        • Nama [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
          65·
          25 days ago

          One is stopping a few ships (which the US is also currently doing with Cuba), the other is unambiguously murdering 500 civilians.

          So its an indefensible warcrime weighed against something the US actively downplays.

          Good choice by Iran all things considered.

          • supafuzz [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
            51·
            25 days ago

            it’s also reasserting as existing material fact one of the things any deal will have to politically ratify - that Iran controls Hormuz. “in case y’all forgot”

            • SexUnderSocialism [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
              24·
              25 days ago

              Exactly, it helps emphasize a reality that can’t be ignored anymore. It’s why multiple countries are now in the process of re-establishing ties with Iran in order to gain access to the Strait.

          • fannin [he/him, he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
            4·
            25 days ago

            I don’t understand this as there are very few civilians in Israel. And I wouldn’t presume to tell the iranians what to do but I’d just modestly note that if there’s a winning position on the board you should play it for a win.

        • MLRL_Commie [comrade/them, he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
          40·
          25 days ago

          Well yeah, it was explicitly part of the ceasefire that they retained the rights to toll it, so it seems pretty well according the all the unspoken rules that they closed it once it was broken!

    • Damarcusart [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      9·
      25 days ago

      Much of the commentariat on here is focused on the Iranians ‘revealing their weakness’ by not immediately launching a counterattack on Israel. This doesn’t make much sense to me. The Iranians almost immediately played their strongest non-escalatory card by re-closing the strait. Doing so exerts pressure on the US, not on Israel, which shows the Iranians understand the fundamental reality of the power structure they’re up against. The Israelis can only be stopped by forcing the US to restrain them, or taking huge escalatory steps that have a good chance of leading to Israeli nuclear strikes on Iran (desalination plants, energy infrastructure). The closure of the strait denies Trump any claim to a military victory and compounds the economic damage that’s already inevitable at this point.

      Thanks for this breakdown. It is a terrible strategy in a war to just react mindlessly to everything your enemy does without planning. Launching a few potshot missiles would do basically nothing except placate the armchair generals watching on the internet, keeping the strait closed is far more effective, because it forces the US to either reign in Israel or return to the war themselves, and either way, it weakens their position while returning things to how they were before the ceasefire.

      As you said, there’s a diplomatic aspect to this, this isn’t a game of chess in a vacuum. Iran has to think about after the war, what state the world will be in, and what the world will think of them.

      Addendum, but the people of Lebanon have been suffering due to the Entity since its inception. If they actually had the means to annihilate Lebanon entirely in a few days/weeks, they would’ve done so already. All they can do is strike out impotently at civilians, showing their evil to the world, no amount of very expensive PR will fix this, their days are numbered and they know it, they’re terrified and they’re doing the only thing terrified fascists know how to do: lash out at targets that can’t fight back.