Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
It looks like the current trajectory is a naval blockade of tankers transporting Iranian oil (most of them are not owned by Iran, IIRC) and the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait by the Ansarallah. We could also see the Yanbu port/pipeline blow up. It will be interesting to see if this is another Trump bluff.
https://xcancel.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2042938678767686071
Wow, that’s extremely rare for a U.S. treaty ally. South Korea’s president, addressing Israel: “It’s disappointing that you don’t even once reflect on the criticisms from people around the world who are suffering and struggling due to your relentless anti-human rights and anti-international law actions.” He said this after posting this yesterday (https://xcancel.com/Jaemyung_Lee/status/2042388873570107631), a video of IDF soldiers throwing a young Palestinian off a rooftop and commenting that “there is no difference between this and the Japanese wartime sexual slavery issue we raise, the massacre of Jews, or wartime killings.” Israel’s Foreign Ministry responded that his post was “unacceptable” but President Lee obviously - and courageously - chose to double down 👇
more
(machine-translated) It’s disappointing that you don’t even once reflect on the criticisms from people around the world who are suffering and struggling due to your relentless anti-human rights and anti-international law actions. When I am in pain, others feel that pain just as deeply. It’s only natural to feel sorry if someone else is suffering because of my needs. It makes me deeply uncomfortable to watch this immense pain and national hardship suddenly befalling our innocent citizens out of the blue, like a bolt from the blue. For the sake of universal human rights and the national interests of the Republic of Korea, I must work harder to find things I can do.
Also probably says a lot about where U.S.-South Korea relations are at right now. He’s backed by other senior South Korean political figures, like Choo Mi-ae (the first female leader of South Korea’s Democratic Party) 👇
We are a nation that endured forced enslavement like the comfort women and conscripted laborers under Japan’s wartime regime, as well as imprisonment, massacres, live burials in mines and military bases, chemical and biological experiments, and the Kantō earthquake massacre. No matter how much it is Israel, I strongly support President Lee Jae-myung for sending the message that indiscriminately killing civilians is wrong from a human rights perspective.
Or Park Hong-geun, Minister of Planning and Budget, who calls on Israel to “break free from the chain of victimhood becoming perpetration” 👇
We express profound regret over the Israeli government’s response of “unacceptable” to President Lee Jae-myung’s remarks emphasizing universal human rights. Our people, who have endured countless cries and the pain of losing national sovereignty through a 5,000-year history, fully empathize with and understand the horrific suffering experienced by the Israeli people in the last century. However, no reason can justify inhumane acts that exceed all bounds. We cannot stand idly by while such acts continue and their repercussions reach even our own people. We urge Israel to break free as soon as possible from the chain of hatred where the memory of victimhood leads to further perpetration. Likewise, domestic movements that obscure the essence of the situation or take sides for strategic purposes must exercise restraint. The Ministry of Economy and Finance will, in designing the future of the Republic of Korea, prioritize the people’s livelihood and national interests as core values, while never losing sight of universal human rights as the foundation of human civilization.
The whole of Korean Twitter seems to be lashing at Israel today, backing their President
https://xcancel.com/tokkicomrade/status/2043126252001964215 (machine-translated)
Hello! It’s funny that you saw my tweet here😂 On Korean Twitter, discussions about Palestine have actually been quite active, centered around various clusters. I’ve also been trying to learn about Palestine and consistently show solidarity. However, this time, the president publicly addressed the issue while. It seems like more lively discussions are taking place, and as a fellow participant, I’m really delighted. I hope this unintended automatic translation continues to foster even more global solidarity moving forward.
I’ve just seen a tiktok claiming SIX warehouse fires in the US after the viral “you should’ve paid us more” video.
I don’t think this is “organised”, but it is certainly a sign of the cracks forming beneath the surface. Warehouse workers are ripe for organising.
There’s really only 2 options for the US at this point, fold or double down. Try to rein in Israel or try to take the Strait. Both will fail, and I cannot imagine the US will sit by while Iran controls the global distribution of oil. If the US were logical they would abandon Israel. I feel like shit is about to hit the fan and while I admire the Iranians for putting their foot down, I pray for their safety.
here’s Trump entering a UFC event as Vance says that negotiations with Iran have failed
Video: https://xcancel.com/atrupar/status/2043143984776671416
No other President in HISTORY cares as little about the Job of President as I do!!!
Apparently, the nuclear issue was the main sticking point according to Vance. The US demanded a commitment not to build a nuclear bomb, and Iran declined. This is good news, because it means Iran is no longer fucking around and is taking steps to secure their country’s long term future.
Hilarious how just a couple of weeks ago, the US actually had that one demand in the bag in Geneva, but then couldn’t control their bloodthirstiness, and ended up losing all of their leverage.
Edit: Also confirmed by Iranian media: https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/12/3563615/iran-us-talks-end-in-islamabad-us-s-excessive-demands-prevent-common-framework
No deal.
I’m trying to think about what happens after the negotiations inevitably fail. We will see Ansarallah fully join the fighting but that’s probably it for large changes. The smaller changes are that Iran had time to process and analyze their tactics (especially the SAMbushes) and the US got more missiles and time to repair their aircraft. To reference Brandon, I don’t think anything fundamentally changed. Am I missing something?
NYT update
We’re now crossed 4 a.m. local time in Islamabad and Vice President JD Vance is still in negotiations with the Iranians. The American delegation arrived at the Serena Hotel shortly after noon on Saturday, but the press has not seen Vance or other senior officials since they arrived in Pakistan hours earlier. During the more than 15 hours of talks, the White House has not provided any details about the status of the negotiations.
Not even lies?
BREAKING: At least three planes from Tehran have landed in Rawalpindi’s Nur Khan Air base in the last hour, where both the Iranian and the US delegations arrived, reports Al Jazeera’s @abidhussayn
Either more members of the delegation arriving (doubtful), or Iran is already thinking about walking away from the negotiations. I really hope they arrive safely back to Iran, I’m certain that USIS is already preparing to kill or kidnap them.
Zionists dropping White phosphorus on Lebanon
Multiple reports and footage suggesting Israel used white phosphorus bombs today over the residential village of Al-Tiri in southern Lebanon
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2043077668065640726
Just in, Pakistan military will conduct a missile test in the Arabian sea shortly, NOTAM has been issued.
Good timing why not get a missile test off at this moment, nothing else is going on
https://xcancel.com/Rumeno10/status/2043079914321252569
There always needs to be something happening at any given moment, otherwise we’ll go back to the “nothing ever happens” baseline, which is hard to recover from.
An Irish person performing some direct action on a US airforce plane at Shannon airport
Negotiations update per Drop Site
🗞️ Negotiation Updates | 5 PM ET
🔴 Iran–U.S. talks in Islamabad have now continued for more than 8 hours, according to Iranian media.
▪️ A new round of trilateral negotiations between Iran, the U.S., and Pakistan began around 4PM ET, with Pakistani officials mediating and in the room. ▫️Abbas Araghchi, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Ali Bagheri Kani are representing Iran. ▫️JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are representing the U.S.
▪️ Fars reports that due to what Iranian officials describe as “excessive demands” from the U.S., this round likely represents the final opportunity for both sides to reach a common framework.
Talks are ongoing.
