Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
So Iran ignored their own red line and proceeded with the talks despite the aggression against Lebanon never stopping. They made an explicit red line then immediately gave up on it and abandoned Lebanon.
Their opening move in negotiations is capitulation, this looks weak. This is not a good sign, and Iran must feel they do not have a strong position. This is very concerning
This seems like quite a premature overreaction. One of the “red lines” that the Iranian delegation has apparently given Pakistan as part of a list of non-negotiable demands is a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon. To say that they’ve abandoned Lebanon is not true at all.
https://t.me/basirapress/13392 The Iranian delegation only took off to Islamabad after the announcement that Lebanon would be part of a ceasefire and Iran’s frozen assets would be released by Qatar and South Korea
full text
Basira Press 🇮🇷🇺🇸 The Iranian delegation only took off to Islamabad after the announcement that Lebanon would be part of a ceasefire and Iran’s frozen assets would be released by Qatar and South Korea
The Zionist prime minister and president of Lebanon, Nawaf Shalom and Joseph Aoun, seemed to have taken advantage of this opportunity to open up channels of direct normalization with the Zionist entity in order to spite Iran and avoid making it look like Iran helped to secure Lebanon’s interests.
At first, Nawaf Shalom pompously declared that ceasefires and negotiations cannot be done on behalf of Lebanon. He shows this bravado only for Iran, but he is okay to take orders and have his decisions made by the American embassy. Aoun made similar statements.
However, the duo (who were both hand-picked by the US embassy in Lebanon) quickly flopped and asked for outside help to secure a ceasefire.
Since Iran is not like America and doesn’t interfere in the internal political affairs of nations and their allies are friends, not proxies/puppets, this is out of their control.
Iran simply exports its values of independence, self-respect, and resistance, and it is up to the Lebanese people to overthrow their cucked leaders who cannot breathe without the approval of the Epstein empire’s embassy.
Keep in mind, this is only for a two week ceasefire. The US and Zionists could violate it in the meantime, or there is no agreement made, and war will resume.
Since the US and Zionists only deal with deception and betrayal, especially in the current time period where the US’ arrogance has destroyed any resemblance of its diplomatic reputation, any agreement would have to be so foolproof that the US could not break it even if they wanted to. This would be hard to achieve.
A permanent peace is impossible so long as the Zionist entity exists and so long as the US is an arrogant, Satanic empire that serves the interests of the global Zionist network.
However, these two weeks could be beneficial for Iran to regroup. The enemy didn’t have so much obstacles for real-time regrouping, as the Zionist regime’s military airports were always open and receiving equipment, so nothing really changes in these two weeks. Interceptor missiles would take years to replenish, so if war restarts, they would still be in a desperate position and quickly become totally defenseless.
Since Lebanon and the rest of the resistance front are part of the deal, a violation on one is a violation on all, and war will restart.
Several security officials are part of the delegation, meaning it is not just members of this reformist-leaning administration who are present, but a diverse and comprehensive group who will oversee the outcome.
The statement of the Leader was also crucially helpful for us to set our compass straight and outweighs the chatter of armchair generals.
Any concessions by the US is not out of goodwill, but desperation. A victorious party would not use deception as a weapon like the US did with green lighting the Zionist massacres in Lebanon in violation of their original word.
Their dwindling weapons stock (especially interceptors), failed uranium heist, economic decline, and midterm elections may force them to make concessions. However, their arrogance blinds them and they only know treachery. Only Allah knows what will transpire tomorrow.
“Our finger is on the trigger.”- Iran’s SNSC
https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/21039
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇵🇰| Iran’s IRIB reporter says that if Iran’s preconditions are not met, the Iranian team may not participate in negotiations with the Americans.
At the same time, Pakistani officials are trying to convince the Iranian team to enter negotiations without prior conditions.
@FotrosResistancee
Then they proceeded with 8 hours of talks with the Americans despite Lebanon never receiving a ceasefire and Israel dropping white phosphorous and their strongest bombings of Beirut and killing hundreds if not thousands of civilians and Hezbollah members
They repeatedly explicitly stated they would not proceed with the talks without aggression against Lebanon stopping, and then proceeded with the talks without the aggression stopping. They made a public explicit demand then immediately buckled on it. You can try to make excuses all you like but that’s what happened.
This follows immediately after Iranian leadership lied about not being involved in negotiations while Trump was telling the truth.
The fake talks shouldn’t have even started in the first place, but at the very least they should have backed out as soon as Israel ignored their demands.
All in all this is extremely bad tidings. 2025 Hezbollah “ceasefire” vibes where only one side is bound but Israel remains unconstrained and unpunished.
I know what happened, and I don’t claim to agree with how they handle these talks. I have my own criticisms of the reformists in charge. I think Israel and the US can never be trusted, and that these talks never go anywhere. My point is that making sweeping statements about them giving up on Lebanon is premature, when they themselves still consider it a non-negotiable demand. Them choosing to do these talks, even if they’re pointless, isn’t the same as giving up on an ally.
If it’s non-negotiable why are they continuing to negotiate without it being met? The things Iran says are not what it does.
Thousands dead in Lebanon due to this weakness by the way. You can downplay all you want but people are dying in Beirut en masse and Iran isn’t backing out of negotiations.
Because contrary to your assumption that they feel they do not have a strong position, they actually do? Last time I checked they were still in control of the Strait of Hormuz. I’m not a fan of these talks either. Literally all I’m saying is that it’s better to just wait and see before jumping to conclusions.
If they did have a strong position they could use that as leverage to threaten to back out of the talks and Israel would submit and stop attacking Lebanon. If they refused to, then Iran would just end the negotiations and resume the war they were winning.
The scenario where Iran buckles on its threats and continues getting dragged along by talks is incompatible with them feeling strong. Those in strong positions don’t open negotiations by folding
Or, before you western marxist doomer babies keep crying, maybe consider how the talks could be a strategy to achieve the goals? Instead of acting like you’re smarter and more committed than the people doing the fighting, just consider any option other than whining?
Let’s look at a couple of the options for why this could be how it goes: 1. Iran thinks it can get the US to stop the zionist entity attacks on lebanon by entering the talks and stating they will leave without the US stopping isntreal. This could work because the US may feel the pressure form Iran but not yet have acted against isntreal at this moment. Giving them the chance to, with Iranians there, make that decision, is a very human way to approach it. 2. Iran sees it as wasting the US time and sees that any oath forward will result in the eventual buckling as long as the military stays vigilant. So going to peace talks is setting up a future for after this war. So, making a real demand, looking nice for accepting less to start discussion, etc makes Iran the adult in the room. 3. Lebanon and Iran are talking behind the scenes and strategizing together, and you just don’t happen to be in the room? This buys some time to discuss while the world continues supporting Iran more and the economies start hurting.
And any of these is more believable than that Iran is just giving up and backstabbing its allies (upon whom they are significantly dependent for regional security) during a war it’s currently fighting with them!
western doomers staring at western social media actually know more than the IRGC, so, jot that down
This is the point I like the most and I think needs to be reiterrated: we know as a fact Hezbollah is coordinating with Iran, that’s why they jumped in when this started. I’m sure their leaders know just as well as Iran that whatever strategy they’re carrying out right now has short and long term impacts/possibilities.
We probably won’t know the full scope or reasons behind the decision to negotiate for a while because there’s no world where Hezbollah can swear off Iran’s support right now even if they /did/ feel betrayed.
Smart money for me though says go with the trend: Iran ran the US out of a significant portion of the middle east and wrapped a lot of the world’s economy around its finger in one months time, they might know a thing or two. Let’s assume they know to coordinate with their allies.
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@rainpizza@lemmygrad.ml is posting news about the cease fire in the lemmygrad news megathread.
I don’t think it’s meaningful to speculate on what red lines Iran (or any other country for that matter) has. Since misdirection, deception, and subterfuge are deployed in politics and certainly during warfare which is just politics through other means, no country or party will truthfully state all of their actual red lines, especially during times of war. There’s going to be at least three categories:
red lines that are publicly stated
fake red lines that are publicly stated for deceptive reasons
red lines that are not publicly stated but either communicated through private channels or just not revealed because revealing them would expose weakness that the red line is addressing
Throw in “black lines” and you have an even greater clusterfuck like black lines being deceptively portrayed as red lines, red lines being deceptively portrayed as black lines, fake black lines used to bait the opposition into focusing on a fake weakness, etc, and it just all becomes completely useless from a complete outsider to speculate on.
A recent video put out by Richard Medhurst (I think you linked that video here) demonstrates this. His analysis is that the US actually doesn’t want the strait to reopen. The US demanding that the strait reopen or else is the fake red line. The real red line Iran could cross would be Iran reopening the strait and charging a low enough toll that shippers won’t leave WANA for the US.
His analysis also suggests that ceasefire talks are worthless because Iran could simply take the initiative and reopen the strait to select shippers instead of waiting for another party that pretends to care about reopening the strait but actually doesn’t want the strait to be reopen in the first place. I think this is a much stronger argument of the ceasefire being a waste of time.
Wha… I thought you were joking.
I’m pretty sure there’s more behind the scenes than meets the eye.