The guys is almost 80 73, he’s an old man.
He’s been very successful in his tenure, carried out great anti-corruption campaigns, overseen a pivot to green energy, helmed China as it has retaken its place in the sun.
At the same time there’s a lot of foreign policy stuff that leaves some wanting. There’s still cliques of liberals (as far as I understand, which is very little, which is why I ask) that are working towards something very different (I hear Shanghai is really bad?) not to mention some impending economic doom, according to some China posters here.
Whatever the case is, Xi has been monumental and at the forefront of a great wave of change. One must Imagine he has planned for his retirement, moved things around to ensure some of His Guys are in good positions to take over.
Or maybe not?
So what happens when he goes away? Who is likely to take his spot? What will happen on the world stage?
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XII Jinping
the follow up to XI is actually XIV
Saudis playing the really long game by starting LIV Golf
Isn’t XI 11 and XIV 14?
I think it’s a reference to the hit MMO Final Fantasy XIV being a sequel to Final Fantasy XI.
You’re right
You’re thinking of 4, which changed from IIII to IV between early and late Roman periods
When he retires, the next general secretary will be elected during a plenary session of the Central Committee, as it always has under a socialist democratic system.
Yes that part I get, but there must be some frontrunners people expect are likely to win, which is what I am curious about.
I figure there are also different camps within the party, and they are likely to make some political play or other. I am curious to hear what people know about the current political landscape of China and what they expect to be happen when Xi some day steps down - since he is so popular it is unlikely he would lose an election.Insofar as I am aware as an outsider looking in, factionalism has been curbed under Xi’s term and the only “faction” that exists" is the standing committee,politburo, and central committee all in agreement with Xi’s direction, called the “New Zhijiang Army”, or just the “Xi faction”
That guy is almost 80!?!? Jesus Christ, looking good dude. Also disproving that older people are naturally shit at politics. Amazing.
73, I thought he was 77 for some reason. Whoops.
Because 73 is too random of a number. 77 is still pretty random, but not as much.
37 would be very very random.
Looks closer to 67 to me
this joke is fucking infuriating. well done.
Joke?
Still
The failure of the USA will put a limit on the power and appeal of the liberal factions.
People will push further for the socialism that helped them.
Is that something that can be seen occurring at the moment in China?
“At the moment” is a non-sequitur.
Xi Jinping isn’t dead yet. He is 73.
Average life expectancy in China is 79 years. We should adjust this number, since he is not the average person. I would suggest +1 Standard Deviation (SD) - but I can’t find that.
Absent of other information we are looking at.
- 79 + SD - 73 = 6 + SD
- Current year = 2026
- 2026 + 6 + SD = 2032 + SD
At the rate things are going, where the world is looking to China rather than the US, where the world is turning away from the US, where we have a midterm election this year, where we have a full election 2 years from now, where Trump faces jail upon losing, where MAGA talks up a civil war, etc - do you think Chinese liberals are going to have an easy time promoting US-style politics?
Power faces many dynamics, and the global trend is away from liberalism.
You make some really good points, but I couldn’t help but laugh at:
where Trump faces jail upon losing
That will never happen. Aside from the usual political theatrics between the two parties of capital, the ruling class is not going to set that precedent where one of their own will be tried and convicted.The administration would still have that as a fear.
It’s part of the reason why Joe Biden preemptively pardoned Hunter.
But no one would go after Joe Biden hinself. It is literally baked into executive privilege as defined by the Supreme Court.
You have to understand, we struggle to bring even basic law enforcement officers to justice here in the states, the executive branch is both de-jure and de-facto off-limits, especially once they are out of office. If Nixon, Obama or H.W. Bush (or hell basically any sitting president in the last 130 years) didn’t serve a single day in jail, there is 0% chance that Donald Trump will. He is the Republican Party now and everyone knows it. To arrest him post-presidency is literally to incite civil war, and liberals are far too big on civility to invite that kind of strife.
Trump will issue blanket pardons to his family (well maybe not Eric or Don Jr.) and cronies, but he does not need to issue one for himself, because he is already covered.
As you speak to our ignorance of the Chinese system and ways of thinking, I implore you to understand your own ignorance in terms of how the American system operates, part of the reason it has stood for so long is because the elite political class are completely insulated from all consequences of their governance. They do not truely hold each other accountable, therefore there is no real elite infighting that causes the normal kind of cracks that could be exploited. They are ruthless and cynical, but only to those outside of their class, and in their class, only in so far as it is about internal jockeying for positions.
As you speak to our ignorance of the Chinese system and ways of thinking, I implore you to understand your own ignorance in terms of how the American system operates
Just to be clear, I am Iranian and not Chinese.
I implore you to understand your own ignorance in terms of how the American system operates
I am not ignorant on this and I agree with your assessments.
Right. The various bourgeois factions protect each other from the consequences of corruption. The factions they represent (financials, big tech, military, big tech, agri, meat, ziolobby, retail, etc) don’t want a war amongst the politicians that can hurt their interests. The factions pay both parties.
The factions want a controlled political landscape to reduce risk and increase profits. Politicians from one party arresting another for representing factional interests isn’t possible*, because the other party is also getting paid by the same people - and was brought into power by the same people.
The hypothesis here is that if you personally went out and successfully got elected, that they might arrest you - because you wouldn’t fall within that dynamic.
But this dynamic doesn’t eliminate risk. There is no honour amongst thieves. People can push the envelope in their attempt to fuck over other politicians.
There is a limited number of seats. Not everyone gets in. Elections do happen, but everyone recognizes you need money and connections for favourable media and advertising. You need the sponsorship of a faction to make it. If you refuse the money of an organization, they will try to fuck you. If you refuse all the factions, they all try to fuck you.
It’s a completely bought and paid for election system, with conspiracies occurring within the electoral structure to illegally purge candidates who actually want to improve things.
But once you show that you are on team bourgeois and can rally votes - the money starts coming in. As they make bets on who wins.
So we have an inherent dynamic of competition and an inherit dynamic of cooperation.
*Trump and his team cannot be certain that the dynamic of cooperation will prevail over the dynamic of comptetition. Especially with how he set things up.
In the event of a loss in the elections, because of the stakes, they would be willing to take serious risks. We already saw this happen with January 6th.
This will happen again.
The very real risk of jail motivates more erratic behaviour, which undermines US political stability, which gives China more things to contrast itself with.
So I argue that my original statement is correct.
My apologies on the misidentification of your nationality, you simply speak of American politics like many Chinese people I know.
I completely, and absolutely, disagree.
You are completely mistaken on the nature of January 6th, with your revolutionary vision clouding your judgement and the appearance of events.
We do not know how to wage a real revolution, reactionary or otherwise, in this country. We have all been taught incorrectly, mostly from our spectator nature of color revolutions. We only know reformist politics, and spectacular actions, with no in-between. January 6th was a spectacular action, with no chance of actually accomplishing anything substantial. And the reforms came from the state and federal court appointments that Trump did.
Due to this, I am firmly of the opinion that we, at most, will experience the same “Will they, won’t they” cycle that we did after the first term, however, there is no way in hell Trump will spend a single day in prison.
Trump has capitulated to the only real, sustained power in Washington, the National Security/Military Industrial Complex. Therefore, he will be just fine.
Mostly, it is clear that the full liberalized economic model (ala Japan, South Korea, and Singapore) that was the model that the IMF supposedly based their financial progress against, is clearly flawed (in that it doesn’t take into account the sheer amount of free money that was pumped into those economies to get them started, and that they are clearly slowing down or at a stand-still while China is continuing to accelerate, in spite of similar population demographics).
The success of several different versions of Socialism with __ characteristics is extremely compelling.
To be fair, the economy of Japan slowed down in large part due to the Plaza Accords handicapping economic development
I’m not so convinced. Liberalism is seductive like a religion. The truth doesn’t matter to liberals nor the appeal of liberalism I think. It whispers in your ear begging you to dance. For some amount of people facts, logic, reasoning don’t really matter, it’s about emotions and the feel of a thing so these are vulnerable to emotional appeals and propaganda.
Many Chinese may also not see it as socialism that helped them but some special Chinese nationalism or believe their people are superior, that they accomplished it in-spite of socialism not because of it. Never under-estimate the human ability for self-deception.
Care should be taken. Given Xi was chosen in the first place there is good reason to be hopeful about the CPC’s abilities but danger continues to lurk.
Have you seen Chinese people speak of racial exeptionalism?
Chinese media phrasing things in terms of “see how our system has made us so successful” and “this system is why we are doing so much better”.
Not “We’re better because we’re Chinese”.
Not to insult you, but not listening to “facts, logic, reasoning” seems to me to describe yourself. I say this because you are applying the world of politics you know and are familiar with - outside of it’s context.
The world you know is one of racial supremacism, ethnonarcissism, idealism, lack of dialectical materialism.
Are we describing China? Is this how they teach people to think in China? If it is, then what is Chinese socialism?
Do you believe that China is a socialist country? Do you believe that China is a communist country?
Oh please.
There are people in China who are Chinese nationalists. Not necessarily along some sort of racialized supremacist lines as in the US but who are less communists and more nationalists and who in a hypothetical where a US blockade and missteps led to economic problems and suffering might easily turn on the party just as soon because the economic headwinds have changed and they no longer see the party as benefiting them. And there are a ton of fair weather communists who are so because it’s the path of least resistance and because they were educated in such. Such people at times get into various levels of leadership and such people at times also take the path of least resistance in engaging in corruption and taking money as we have seen.
To assert Chinese people are somehow special and the ‘white-brain-pan’ is the only one that can possibly be vulnerable to the siren song of liberalism is itself a racially reductive and problematic take. There are traitors within China including within the CPC as there were within the USSR and the party there. China has taken steps with lessons learned from the fall of the USSR to attempt to address many of these problems and that is good but given the amount of corruption Xi had to root out, the existence of liberal cliques, etc there are inevitably as part of China’s opening up necessary playing with fire economic liberalization and penetration by foreign capital (to secure that capital) those who feel a certain way and have not been necessarily purged but who fester, tolerated so as to not scare off foreign capital and economic partnership and only reigned in as Jack Ma was if they openly go too far against the party. This however says nothing to what some of these traitors may privately think but be smart enough not to give voice to at present. Rot starts small with little concessions. Kruschev did not set out to destroy communism or the USSR and there is more than one way to fell a tree.
What I am saying is it is the mandate of the party, the vanguard to maintain vigilance. To not grow slack, to not assume liberalism can be so easily extinguished as you do. It is a weed and it must be plucked and it must be understood it can sprout up time and again from apparently cleared soil and that the vigilance here will need to be a longer one.
Importantly the USA has not yet failed. It is the strongest empire in history with a lot of cultural hegemony still built in around the globe and seeped into a lot of thinking in ways people don’t even realize. It will likely be decades before the danger lessens significantly as that is how long it will take assume the Iran war really does bring US power and image low (a Suez Crisis moment) for this all to really fully manifest in the illusion and its remnants falling away. In that time China will almost certainly transition to a new leader. Like an injured scorpion it isn’t wise to count it out but be more cautious than ever in its death throes. Future generations next century may live free of this watchful vigilance if we are successful. But we owe it to all who have struggled not to presume too much too soon. Until the enemy is buried and long dead and discredited the risk remains and so must worry and watchfulness.
Great points all around.
nationalists and who in a hypothetical where a US blockade and missteps led to economic problems and suffering might easily turn on the party just as soon because the economic headwinds have changed and they no longer see the party as benefiting them.
Now that we are looking at an additional condition, let’s game it out?
How do economic headwinds change?
Scenario 1: War and global supply chain issues (the current problem)
In this situation we are seeing Chinese people look at the US as the source of the trouble.
War and fear makes people more conservative. They want to preserve the status quo and prevent loss. People rally around existing institutions.
Not to give any weight to horseshoe theory, but in China that would mean people digging their heels in for the communist system.
This last point is a conclusion on my part based on what science exists on human behaviour. If someone in China disputes this, let me know.
Scenario 2: Chinese government liberalizes.
This would create a circular argument, because the we would need the liberalization of the government to cause the circumstances that can bring about the liberalization of the government.
Xii Jiinpiing
Points for the extra iis in jinping
Unfortunately, the successor will be an unbelievably unpopular Xi U…
But hoo boy! when the Xi-witch comes along
Xii Jinping, obviously. don’t you know your roman numerals?god dammit you guys already made five versions of this joke
god dammit you guys already made V versions of this joke
Boom gottem
Then we get Xii, Xiii and Xiv Jinping i guess
Crosspost this to asklemmy if you want some liberals to dunk on I guess
Maybe ask lemmygrad for a detailed analysis by those more informed on the Chinese electoral process, but I would imagine the CPC has potential nominees and the normal electoral process will occur.
I figure that as well, but even within an actual democracy like China a competent politician will have trustworthy successors lined up to ensure the continuation of their political ideals and projects.
Him and Putin were allegedly talking about living forever via organ transplants (I think on a hot mic at the PRC military parade) so maybe we’ll never have to find out!
They just talked about organ transplants and advances within the field. Not anything specific to them or eternal life
That’s Putin’s obsession not Xi’s. As a liberal who largely lives for himself and likely believes in great man theory Putin is much more interested in this idea.
Yeah I know it’s Putin thang, but if anyone on earth could achieve something like this at this point, I’d put my money on china. Anyhow it’s a joke, but also: old people in china are generally pretty spry (thinking of all the grandmas I saw at night doing dance music aerobics in xian) so a Chinese 80 is a hell if a lot different than an American one. Plus Xi is rumored to be lifelong moderate in terms of his appetites no?
The Chinese system is very resilient, the entire central committee can disappear and the CPC would keep trucking along
China has been one of the most stable and long lived civilizations in all human history. Socialism grafted well onto their already collectivist oriented culture and is wildly improving the lives of its citizens, and the world is now looking back to them to lead. The government is highly educated in Marxism and it’s producing nothing but peace and sustainable growth, and they’ve quietly plugged away at controlling the base of the world’s economy. I have no concerns about what happens after Xi, it’s going to be the Chinese millennium at this rate.
The only reason I disagree with Chinese Millenium is that I think once the west collapses Africa will flourish. China will be fine and continue to do well, but give it 100-150 years and Africa, with its vast natural resources, growing population, and no longer being undermined by the west, will be eclipsing China imo. I expect the African Union will expand into more of an EU like thing at that point and it will be by far the largest economic bloc on the planet. It is quite literally the region with the largest untapped economic potential on the planet. If even a small portion of it were to ever embrace socialism and have a USSR or China style industrialization it would rapidly transform into a superpower.
And China has been intentionally helping African nations build incredible infrastructure to do just that.
We are right the fuck there aren’t we? The hardest part will be that the US needs to be a normal country
Nah, the less normal the US is, the faster the decline. If it chills out, it’s still in decline, but a managed one.
The US won’t become a normal country in the absence of something horrible. I John Brown etc
everyone saying xii jinping is wrong, it’s actually a countdown to communism so it’ll be x jinping then ix jinping and viii jinping until i jinping presses the communism button and the jinping withers away
So I will sort of engage with your question and sort of not. I have no idea who will run China after Xi Jinping. It will be some other Chinese comrade. Yet it does not really matter. China is not, as the west likes to portray it, some dictatorship. Where one man controls all. Xi is awesome and has done a lot of good work, but the country as a whole is progressing. He is just leading it. China’s material conditions will continue to develop. Its productive forces will continue to mature. That is the way of things. Politically the Chinese system is quite stable. The vast maority of the people support the current direction and there are strong institutions in place to prevent counter revolution. Xi is not some magic man holding China to the path of socialism. They are following plans laid out during the day of Deng Xiaoping that are now coming to fruition.
So ‘what will we see out of China in the next 30 years?’ is the next question. A revolution in food production technologies. Thorium power taking over along with solar. Becoming an energy exporter in the form of cheap solar panels and Thorium SMRs. A new naval paradigm emerging (i wont go into too much detail but aircraft carriers are going the way of the battleship). etc.
For a more short term view they literally have 5 year plans you can go look at.
I wish I could believe everything will be alright, but it’s hard to be optimistic after seeing revolutions back slide before. After all, the USSR wasn’t some dictatorship either, and Stalin also did a lot of purging and rearranging too, and look at what ended up with that place.
The USSR was a massive success story. I wish people wouldn’t focus so much on its end. Nothing lasts forever and the USSR was the most important socialist project thus far in history. Look at the world today. Do you not see the shadow of the USSR? Had the USSR not been around the US would have reshaped the entire world. The regions where the USSR managed to keep it at bay are now the very regions the US’s empire is beginning to fall apart. Yes, what happened in 1991 was a tragedy, but that does not take away what it did prior to that. In less than a century the USSR stopped Nazi Germany, put the first man in space, acted as counterbalance to prevent complete and total US hegemony over the world, sheltered multiple socialist projects in their infancy, and so much more. It burned bright and quickly but its effect on history will be felt until the very end of mankind.
Will China last 200 more years? 500? Who can say? But I can confidently say that its impact on history will survive.
This is a much better way to look at it. I appreciate the perspective, comrade.
The USSR is the only known society to lose around 20% of it’s population (and generally speaking these were the most hard core communists) over the course of almost 40 years of continuous warfare (with a small break during the late 30’s), lose most of its major pre-war infrastructure, and somehow not slip backwards into a feudal state of being, while competing with, and in some areas, technologically surpassing, a global hegemon who sacrificed far less, and sacrificed none of their infrastructure.
To some degree it is a modern miracle (more of a testament to Marxist theory) it even existed at all, and for as long as it did. And if they had been able to last until the age of the internet, they likely would be where China is now. However, it was clearly too much pressure on too fragile a socialist experiment, and as a result their progression in history has mostly stalled, doomed to be either a gas station for Europe or a boogeyman for NATO. Not a backwater, but the amount of rotting infrastructure in the former USSR really demonstrates how completely ineffective capitalism is at actually serving regular people.
It is a great example at least, when you compare the before and after.
i wont go into too much detail but aircraft carriers are going the way of the battleship
This will hopefully be a blow against American military dominance.
it 100% will be. The US does not have the means to rebuild their fleet. They will be left in the past.
XII Jinping hapens
After the block jubilee I got mad at everyone except OP on the site and reblocked everyone so if this joke has been made 13 times already I wouldn’t know.
4 so far, not including you. Also one about the WiiU.
Im curious about your block jubilee though, I would Imagine id be a lot more grating than most of the users who made that joke. Then again I dont post a lot at the moment. And ive blocked a bunch that others like, so who am i to say.Edit: wait isnt a jubilee a relief? A debt jubilee isn’t when you hand out a bunch of debt.
I unblocked everyone in the block jubilee and then reblocked everyone almost immediately after because I’m back on my bullshit.
Blocking is not bullshit, protect yourself from dinguses
