I can’t for the life of me figure out the oil shit at this point. It feels inevitable that prices will go up more before the end of the year but America keeps doing this will they won’t they thing with bombs.

Edit: thank you everyone for your response!

  • NeelixBiederman [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    59·
    4日前

    The crisis isn’t worse thanks to China. They anticipated disruption and filled their reserves with mega buffoon amounts of oil the last few years. Now that there is a kink in the world’s oil hose, China has limited their imports by a huge amount, has supplemented the need for fossil fuels with renewables, and is working through their oil reserves rather than expecting to get as much as they want “from the tap”. The effect is that the overall world demand for oil isn’t as bad as it could or should be, due to smart state planning.

    Otherwise, we’re in the same story. All countries are pumping their dwindling reserves hoping an end is in sight, which it isn’t. And the market chooses to believe whatever the US president says as long as someone else is holding the bag.

    Post-reality living

  • kristina [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
    42·
    4日前

    china flushed the world market with reserve oil and saved markets from a melt down. why they did this is anyones guess but im sure it just gave them a ton of soft power

  • WafflesTasteGood [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    45·
    4日前

    The price of oil is being manipulated. Eventually the stockpiles will run low and then the price will be forced to rise, but until then it’s just insider trading and market manipulation.

  • nasezero [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    38·
    4日前

    You know that scene where Wile E. Coyote runs off a cliff but is kept standing mid-air for several yards through the power of cartoon logic? That’s what the US economy is doing.

  • culpritus [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    38·
    4日前

    It is pretty astounding how much it seems that everyone that should be sounding alarms about the situation is doing their best to act like it’s not really a problem. It’s like watching a train wreck that’s inevitable unfold in slow motion.

    Capitalism really makes dealing with big problems so much more difficult because no one in the market wants to be the first to flinch. It’s going to be so much worse than even 2007/8 because this is a real material crunch that effects almost every aspect of the global economy. Everyone is just trying to act casual while walking out off the ledge like a cartoon coyote.

    • ndondo@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
      4·
      4日前

      Economics seems to have incentive to pretend nothing is wrong. People don’t spend money in economic downturns which accelerates the problem bc nobody is selling anything.

      Not to mention a massive effort from China and surprisingly the US to maintain status quo by digging into oil reserves.

      If stockpiles run out we’ll probably feel the disaster. But until then everything’s fine I guess don’t worry about it

  • came_apart_at_Kmart [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    34·
    4日前

    in addition to other comments here about the distinction between paper markets and material reality being on a collision course, it’s worth watching the price of diesel as it continues to climb without really having any sudden drops.

    without Hormuz, diesel in the US is a refinery capacity problem and it is more of a signal for energy costs in transport and agricultural production than gas.

    i think we’ll see panic by fall.

  • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    12·
    4日前

    From this morning…

    Al Jazeera - The global oil market is “running on borrowed time” as countries exhaust reserves used to cushion the impact of major supply disruptions, an analyst says. “It’s really quite dire,” said Kona Haque, a commodities and macro‐economist, describing the market since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February as experiencing “the biggest supply shock ever”.

    “Oil prices reached over $100 a barrel, went down to $70 and back up to $100. It’s a rollercoaster. It’s the kind of uncertainty that shippers, oil producers and oil consumers all hate.” Haque said China has helped ease pressure on the global market by reducing exports of refined petroleum products, allowing it to import less crude oil. “That’s been a huge source of relief for the oil markets over the last five months, but how long can they do that?”

    Other countries are drawing down strategic inventories built up over many years. “Stocks are becoming quite tight. We’re running on borrowed time.”

    For about 6 weeks - so I’ve seen similar headlines again and again and again. As other Hexbears have pointed out in this thread and in news mega - China has been a stabilizing influence. Plus Trump’s ability to jawbone markets and make the price of oil go down is beyond belief.

    China’ influence is decreasing. If Trump were sane and intelligent - he’d understand what he’s doing is toxic for the GOP just before an election. But it seems to me the Iran War will likely continue on and on beyond election day. How can a crash in supply plus spiking energy costs not eventually happen? Maybe it’s just a question of how soon and how bad.

    • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
      16·
      4日前

      I saw someone offer some math that suggested if the US taps its reserves to or just below the level that requires congressional authorization (easily sold as standing with pissrael to Democrats) they should have enough reserves to keep these low prices through election day and potentially even until the start of 2027 if there’s continuing efforts at conservation and demand destruction. For that reason I presume they’re not that worried. Things like this are part of playing for keeps for hegemony in the rest of this century so they’re willing to expend a lot on it.

      After the election there won’t be any real political fear from $10/gallon gas. Just scapegoating and screaming about communists and the new triad of enemies: China, Russia, Iran. So US could be in a war with Iran for quite some time while working people suffer. There was the OPEC boycott in the 70s over the same matter (supporting the zionist entity) and people just shrugged it off and the US government stayed in power and refused to stop supporting the zionist entity and the boycotters gave up in time. Iran has a big liberal class so the US is doubtless hoping to use them to get a better deal. Things are not going perfectly in Iran either economically so who can say what will happen there in 6 months.