A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the Central Bank of Iran.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

The so-called “Economic D-Day” is set to start this week, which is the term trotted out by the US to describe what it regards as the most crushing sanctions ever unveiled in all of human history against a foreign state. Up to me writing this, nobody appears to have many guesses as to what precisely this would entail, but a confirmed aspect is secondary sanctions - i.e. the sanctioning of any country that does business with Iran. China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and has previously explicitly ordered their oil/refining companies to keep receiving and processing Iranian oil regardless of US sanctions. Assuming China maintains this relationship, and the ever-sanctioned Russia does likewise, it’s difficult to see how these sanctions could not only 1) be significantly more effective than the current sanctions on Iran, which are very substantial and yet are being successfully sidestepped and mitigated, albeit at a meaningful cost to Iran’s citizens, and 2) outright bring Iran to a position of surrender when it is in the midst of an existential war. The only conceivable way would be if the US did genuinely sanction China in response, which even the US, in this phase of baffling idiocy, is not yet so stupid as to attempt. Other suggestions I’ve seen is that the sanctions aren’t so much about trying to keep China away as much as stopping the Gulf states from ever economically, politically, and indeed militarily reconciling with Iran; essentially saying “At the end of this war, you may not be on our side, but you certainly won’t be on Iran’s either.”

Nonetheless, ever since Iran militarily proved themselves back in March and April, and, in particular, their missile cities proved effectively indestructible, I and many others came to the conclusion that the only way to destroy Iran would be some kind of internal political or economic crisis - likely both, going hand-in-hand - and it appears that US war planners now agree. A resumption of missile fire is still plenty possible, mind, but if I was the US, it would be in support of that hypothetical internal crisis, were it ever to start, rather than putting the cart before the horse. Therefore, one does have to take the threat of some kind of overwhelming economic offensive at least a little seriously, simply because it’s the only non-nuclear vector left that has even the vaguest possibility of success. From all the analysts I take seriously, I’m getting signals that trend towards optimism that Iran will survive whatever the Bessents of the world can cook up; however, mere survival should not be Iran’s medium/long term goal. Imaginary tankers transiting Hormuz notwithstanding, and with global diesel prices now skyrocketing notwithstanding, it’s still unclear to me what the end result would be if Iran and the US simply decided to stop fighting from now on and apply maximum sanctions/energy disruption for weeks, months, or even years on end. Would China eventually pressure Iran to make concessions, for example? Could a critical portion of Iran’s population, or a segment of the Iranian bourgeoisie, be tempted to try and overthrow the government to end the pain, long before the economy truly internally collapsed?

That’s likely why, in response to the proposed sanctions on Iran, there have been signals coming out of the country (as always, hard to verify in the fog of invented/misattributed statements and exaggerations) that Iran could counterstrike by attacking US economic interests in the region - which, if correctly done, sounds much better to me than simply sitting there with thousands of missiles not being fired while you gradually bleed out over the medium term, hoping that the other guy will bleed out first. This would be a pretty profound step for Iran, though. Aside from maintaining the Hormuz blockade, they have always held the (somewhat strategically dubious) “moral high ground” of being the guy to respond to military attacks, perhaps due to an anxiety of being seen as a warmonger either internally or in countries throughout the world, not least their major allies.

So after all that bloviating, I have little more to offer than a shrug in terms of my predictions about what comes next.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    10
    ·
    1 hour ago

    Al Jazeera - Oil prices are continuing their downward trajectory, with Brent crude futures dropping $1.78, or 2.0 percent, to $86.80 a barrel as of 00:27 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude went down $1.49, or 1.8 percent, to $80.87. The fall came on new hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen after Iran said it had resumed talks with neighbour Oman on managing the strategic waterway, according to news reports. Both benchmarks lost more than 3 percent on Tuesday.

    • Lovely_sombrero [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      2
      ·
      23 minutes ago

      I don’t know if this is true, but multiple Iranian figures have said that the Iran-Oman deal that is on the table closes the US-Oman southern route.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    54
    ·
    edit-2
    5 hours ago

    https://x.com/bonzerbarry/status/2092357868771020952 (seems like xcancel got got, along with nitter… catgirl-salute )

    NBC: Iranian missile and drone attacks have inflicted unprecedented damage on U.S. intelligence posts and surveillance hardware in the Middle East that is more extensive than any destruction America’s spy agencies have endured and will cost billions of dollars to repair, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    64
    ·
    7 hours ago

    Following the celebration of Fidel’s centenary, the US imposes new sanctions against Cuba - BdF

    The Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, which works with popular organizations, is among the targets.

    Article

    Shortly after the celebrations of the centenary of the leader of the Cuban revolution Fidel Castro, the United States announced on Thursday (20) the imposition of new sanctions against Cuba, targeting nine organizations and three individuals, who are accused by the government of President Donald Trump of activities against the interests of the United States.

    The main target is the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples (ICAP), but the sanctions also affect the Cuban Ministry of Construction and seven other organizations. Among those sanctioned are Fernando Gonzalez Llort, president of ICAP and a member of the Cuban Five, Cuban intelligence officers arrested by the US in 1998; Noemi Ramona Rabaza Fernandez, first vice-president of ICAP; and Leima Martinez Freire, ICAP’s director for North America.

    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that ICAP maintains a broad network of influence within the United States, which aims to “identify, recruit, and radicalize subversives, operating under the pretext of educational or cultural exchange.”

    According to him, Cuba used the events of Fidel’s centenary, celebrated on August 13, to activate this network, in order to bring sympathizers to Havana to interact with government authorities.

    “Today’s designations make it clear that the Trump administration will not tolerate the Cuban regime’s efforts to fund its repression or continue its decades-long campaign of anti-American subversive activities,” Rubio stated.

    Since the end of January , the United States government has severely restricted imports of oil and fuels that Cuba needs to maintain the normal functioning of the country.

    Through an executive order, President Donald Trump threatens to impose sanctions on any country or company that “sells or supplies” crude oil to the island.

    Energy suffocation is felt in every corner of Cuba. There are regions where families go for entire days without electricity, and when the power finally returns, it lasts only two or three hours before being cut off again.

    • supafuzz [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      47
      ·
      7 hours ago

      The only daylight between what the US does to Cuba and “Israel” does to Gaza is the lack of bullets and bombs, so far. The economic siege should be talked about in the same genocidal terms

      • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        43
        ·
        7 hours ago

        I was going to post literally that same comment. Yes, it’s the same thing they did with the Gaza blockade. At least Cuba controls 99% of their territory and probably learned a lot with the resistance in Palestine.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    41
    ·
    7 hours ago

    https://archive.ph/gCyfp

    There’s no shortcut to replenish US munitions stockpiles

    Firms are pitching low-cost munitions and the Pentagon is making weapons deals. It won’t immediately fix the Iran stockpile problem, experts say.

    more

    As the U.S. military’s critical munitions are overused in the Iran war and underproduced at home, companies are eagerly pitching new low-cost solutions, and the Pentagon is keen to make big deals. But defense experts say those new, cheaper missile options—and the push to rapidly produce existing weapons—aren’t the short-term fix needed to overcome the long-existing problem exacerbated by the Iran war. However, they will provide the military much-needed options in the future. At the Space and Missile Defense Symposium last week, Boeing unveiled a low-cost seeker missile, with crucial hit-to-kill guidance technology used on the PAC-3 missile, made of commercial, off-the-shelf components. At the same conference, Northrop Grumman released its “cost-effective” 50 millimeter gun-based drone defense system to “address a critical short-range air defense gap.” And last month at the Farnborough International Air Show, Lockheed Martin announced a more affordable, proximity-detonation version of its Patriot missile. But those solutions will likely only have a significant impact on the Pentagon’s stockpiles if the Iran war drags on and if officials quickly award contracts. “The push for low-cost munitions is unlikely to have a material effect on the Iran War—at least not anytime soon,” said Becca Wasser, Bloomberg Economics’s defense lead. And, she said, making enough new weapons, at the right cost, is only part of the problem. “Getting to a lower cost for exquisite munitions will take time. It requires developing new weapons or adapting old ones, which means going through new testing and evaluation processes,” she said. “If the Iran war drags on for years, that’s when the drive for lower cost interceptors and munitions could have an impact,” because “wars of attrition require enormous amounts of material—and the lower price tag helps.”

    Right now, the Pentagon is blowing through its prized Patriot and Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense missiles, and they won’t get replaced anytime soon, defense analysts say—even with novel framework deals. In the last year, top officials have been pushing those deals with major defense primes and are continuing the administration’s rallying cry for the firms to build and innovate faster. Some of those are starting to bear fruit. This week, RTX netted a seven-year, $22.9 billion Tomahawk missile contract with the U.S. Navy under a new deal, showing that the military is making big bets on legacy systems as it pursues newer options. But those legacy munitions still take time to manufacture. In a recent report, the American Enterprise Institute think tank found that it would take 27 years for defense contractors to produce THAADs at the current maximum annual rate of 96 interceptors a year to reach quantities the Pentagon wants.

    cereal2

    There “will be a window of vulnerability for several years until inventories return to their previous levels, and another several years before they get to the levels that war planners desire,” according to a May report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “These newer, lower-cost munitions absolutely should be part of the way we fix this. But we shouldn’t be kidding ourselves that they’re going to be ready quickly en masse, are operational, and our forces are trained and understand how to use them,” said Todd Harrison, AEI’s defense budget expert. “It will take years, some sooner than others. And I think it remains to be seen if they’re going to be available in large quantities sooner than the reorders of the more exquisite existing weapons.”

    Framework deals aren’t contracts

    The Pentagon has already inked framework agreements for low-cost and traditional munitions. Overall, experts say they are a step in the right direction. “It’s not a contract, but it helps give the companies a demand signal they can take to their boards and their shareholders, and…it reduces their risks, so they can make increased capital expenditures, or capex, investments,” said Jerry McGinn, a CSIS senior fellow and the director of the Center for the Industrial Base. McGinn teased an upcoming CSIS analysis that found publicly-traded companies with framework agreements increased their capex investment by 31 percent from the second quarter of 2025 to the same quarter this year. “They’re clearly investing more and it’s hard not to tie it to those framework agreements. But the challenge is that the framework agreement is an agreement…It’s a best faith effort. It’s not a contract,” he said. Congress still has to appropriate the money, the companies have to get on contract, and then they have to deliver, McGinn said. And none of that is guaranteed. McGinn said he’s keen to watch how many contracts come out of the framework deals. One of the first major contracts was a seven-year, $35 billion undefinitized contract with Lockheed Martin for THAADs, which leaves some aspects of the agreement open—to be finalized before the contract starts. Undefinitized contract actions, or UCAs, require special approval and are used for urgent work that all parties “agree needs to begin before final agreement can be reached on price.”

    Lockheed Martin executives said they’re up to the task. “If you look at the framework agreements we’ve signed, we’ve leaned into the ask that the country has made of us. Lockheed Martin has never shied away from stepping up to the line and doing what’s been asked,” Johnathon Caldwell, Lockheed’s vice president of strategic and missile defense systems, told reporters at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium. “We’re in an unprecedented era where speed matters, and we’re able to bring capabilities to market in weeks and months, not years and decades. We’re putting our money on the table, and our commitment.” It’s a tall order for companies to surge production capacity of those munitions, especially amid supply chain bottlenecks for major components such as solid rocket motors. But it helps that the Pentagon’s actually allocating and committing money to those problems, Bloomberg’s Wasser said. “The framework agreements are just that—-agreements, not contracts. Until these are on contract, you won’t see a lot of companies surging production,” she said. “All these efforts—sending the demand signal to industry, qualifying more [solid rocket motor] suppliers, ramping up missile procurement—help, but they don’t solve the problem.”

    Low-cost munitions, long-term solutions

    Lockheed’s more affordable version of the PAC-3 missile comes with some tradeoffs, and a timeline. “We basically modified the front end, modified the back end, took out the [Attitude Control Motors], so it’s no longer hit-to-kill,” Jason Reynolds, Lockheed’s vice president and general manager of integrated air and missile defense, told reporters during a briefing at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium, adding that it integrates with existing munitions systems “at reduced range.” However, PAC-3 ACE isn’t expecting a first flight until early 2028, and won’t go to production until 18 months after that. “Everybody wants more air defense interceptors as quickly as possible, and anything that is as capable or nearly as capable as a PAC-3 MSC is a very attractive offer,” Reynolds said on the sidelines of the conference. There’s no doubt that a more affordable version of the highly-sought after PAC-3 is useful, said Tom Karako, CSIS’ director of the Missile Defense Project. But the question remains: Will the Pentagon buy it? “PAC-3 ACE is not a contract. It’s a concept that they’ve had for a while and they rolled it out,” he said. “I think the time is right for PAC-3 ACE, but it’s a concept, and if you’re really attacking the root cause problem, you know the root cause here is the customer.” A few weeks after the PAC-3 ACE contract was announced, Boeing unveiled its Ultra Low-Cost Seeker. It’s a push to make the company’s precision-guided technology, which makes Patriot missiles deadly and expensive, more accessible and affordable. “The system uses commercial off-the-shelf components that Boeing adapted for military use,” the company said in a news release this month. “ULCS leverages our seeker expertise developed on programs like PAC-3 MSE, but delivers a different seeker capability that can be applied at low cost to numerous defensive and offensive products to address lower-complexity threats.” The seeker is still under development, and more flight tests are expected in 2027. Officials declined to provide exact figures on how much more affordable the new product was compared to existing technology.

    Overall, there seem to be more options for cheaper replacements to hypersonic or cruise missiles than for top-tier air defense missiles like Patriots and THAAD weapons, said Mark Montgomery, a retired rear admiral and senior fellow for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. New entrants are also getting in the low-cost missiles game—and landing contracts. There’s Anduril’s Barracuda, Zone 5 Technologies’ Rusty Dagger, and Coaspire’s cruise missile. “We’re seeing it in hypersonic missiles with a company called Castelion…But we’re not seeing it in air defense weapons,” Montgomery said. X-Bow Systems revealed its modestly priced $100,000 drone destroyer at the Farnborough International Airshow. The company also landed a $11 million deal this week with the Missile Defense Agency to develop and test low-cost interceptors.

    cont’d in response

    • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      39
      ·
      6 hours ago

      This almost made me laugh.

      Legacy munitions [take] time to manufacture. In a recent report, the American Enterprise Institute think tank found that it would take 27 years for defense contractors to produce THAADs at the current maximum annual rate of 96 interceptors a year to reach quantities the Pentagon wants.

      I learned a new word.

      One of the first major [framework deals] was a seven-year, $35 billion undefinitized contract with Lockheed Martin for THAADs, which leaves some aspects of the agreement open—to be finalized before the contract starts.

      • TreadOnMe [none/use name]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        10
        ·
        2 hours ago

        Given the current state of American manufacturing knowledge, particularly in terms of QA, it will likely take twice as long as they are predicting, especially since quality cannot be bought, it can only be developed over time.

    • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      26
      ·
      7 hours ago
      more

      And the fact that these companies are landing contracts, may be indicative of faster production and delivery in a matter of several months, opposed to years, Montgomery said. But producing low-cost munitions isn’t necessarily a solution to the U.S. military’s current stockpile problem. “It’s about transitioning your arsenal long term to a high-low mix. But some of these things can come soon,” Montgomery said. “So it doesn’t impact the next stage of the war. But it could impact a 2027 end game. And it certainly will impact being ready in 2028, 2029 for Russia or China to do something.”

      Strategic shifts

      While industry is answering the call to build more affordable munitions, defense experts question whether the military is willing to use them. In March, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine declared that the U.S. military was pivoting from “from stand-off munitions to stand-in munitions” meaning a pivot from long-range weapons outside the battlefield to ones that need to be dropped within conflict zones. But CSIS’ Karako said there’s been no significant switch to plentiful GPS-guided, freefall weapons like Joint Direct Attack Munitions in the months since that statement. "We have 140,000 JDAMS, we have low-cost munitions today. The reason that we’re not using them, and the reason that we’re hemorrhaging our Tomahawks instead, has to do with extreme risk aversion,” Karako said. “That risk aversion calculus is not going to change just because you have some new entrance, low-cost, low-range missile. We have, today, plenty of munitions that we could use, but we’re not using.” A month after Caine made his comments, a F-15E went down over Iran. The complicated rescue of the two U.S. airmen pushed President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to proclaim the military had “achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority” over the hostile territory.

      Airpower experts previously told Defense One that broad terms used by the administration painted an inaccurate reality of the dangerous situation U.S. pilots find themselves in over the region. That lack of total control also limits which munitions the military is willing to use. “Despite efforts to gain air supremacy over Iran, the U.S. was only able to gain localized air superiority over some parts. That reduced the ability to drop JDAMs instead,” Wasser said. “Switching to a strategy that relies on JDAMs would mean accepting more risk—or taking steps to further degrade Iranian capabilities to allow for greater U.S. use of the skies without threat.” Experts told Defense One the Iran war has exacerbated long-standing problems with how the military uses and buys munitions. And while it’s possible the Pentagon could weather this conflict, the resulting mission depletion will likely make future wars—particularly with China—a struggle. “These missiles will also be critical for a potential Western Pacific conflict,” an April CSIS report said. “Even before the Iran war, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a peer competitor fight. That shortfall is now even more acute, and building stockpiles to levels adequate for a war with China will take additional time.” Until production on existing munitions and interceptors ramps up and the Pentagon buys a new mix of high- and low-end missiles, Karako said the military should look at the plentiful munitions it already has—and use them. “The more immediate thing that we could be doing is changing our tactics,” Karako said. “We’ve hemorrhaged our long-range stuff, and the thing that we could do is we could start using gravity bombs, but we’re not willing to do that … Everytime CENTCOM fires a Tomahawk at somebody without air defense, an angel loses its wings in PACOM.”

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    47
    ·
    7 hours ago

    The head of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, made a surprise visit to Moscow to convince President Putin not to declare mobilization against Ukraine. NATO intelligence had also picked up signals that pointed towards a Russian plan to ‘test NATO’s resolve’ by carrying out limited incursions into Europe. – Wall Street Journal

    • Middle East Spectator
    • SexUnderSocialism [she/her]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      15
      ·
      edit-2
      4 hours ago

      He flew back to Latvia afterwards. I saw rumors that the US flag at their embassy in Moscow disappeared after this visit, and there’s a video that shows the embassy flag missing. No idea if it’s true or even related to this , but that could definitely signal some sort of a diplomatic change. The last time a CIA director flew to Moscow was in November 2021, to warn them against launching the SMO.

      What’s interesting is that the Vatican also happened to be in Moscow during the visit, and the UK prime minister was in Ukraine. That definitely makes me think we could be close to entering a new stage. Or it could be a nothing burger.

    • Parzivus [any]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      38
      ·
      6 hours ago

      Do they genuinely think Russia is going to keep going into Europe after Ukraine, just kick off a nuclear war with NATO? Or has NATO reached a point where an invasion of an eastern European member state wouldn’t provoke a full response?

      • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        22
        ·
        edit-2
        5 hours ago

        No and yes, respectively. Keep your eyes on Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. “Rogue” NATO members (or even Ukrainian agents) will probably threaten to blockade it, forcing Russia to respond by invading the Suwalki Gap to secure a land route. Ideally for the US, this will lead to another protracted war of attrition, where the western/nuclear-armed NATO countries will stay out of direct warfare and provide a lifeline to keep the meat grinder going.

      • red_giant [comrade/them, he/him]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        28
        ·
        edit-2
        5 hours ago

        I think the outcome more likely than nuclear war is Ukraine war redux but this time Poland and the baltics serve their purpose.

        However, I don’t see Russia wanting that outcome or benefiting much at all from it, so more likely some kind of deal to limit or reduce NATO deployments from being too close to Petersburg? In exchange for the nato umbrella not actually getting tested and exposed.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    68
    ·
    7 hours ago

    In a sad attempt to put additional pressure on Iran, the U.S. has banned Iranians from academic exchanges and sport competitions.

    ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ ™️ And it’s just Iranians can no longer play basketball in the United States. GENIUS. THAT WILL FINALLY BREAK THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC!

    • Middle East Spectator
    • iThinkImDumb [any, hy/hym]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      24
      ·
      edit-2
      5 hours ago

      And it’s just Iranians can no longer play basketball in the United States. GENIUS. THAT WILL FINALLY BREAK THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC!

      and doesn’t racist shit like this do nothing but potentially hurt Iranian gusanos? its not like the nba scouts and poaches basketball players from Iran like mlb does with players from Cuba. it not only does fuck all to the Islamic Republic it alienates a group that overwhelmingly supports US’s war and “regime change”

    • Rojo27 [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      21
      ·
      6 hours ago

      After how the Iranian national team was treated by the US during the WC? I’m sure Iranians will be absolutely heartbroken that they won’t have the opportunity to come here just to be treated like shit.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    36
    ·
    edit-2
    7 hours ago

    Peronists prepares offensive against Milei in Congress - Prensa Latina

    Article

    Buenos Aires, Aug 25 (Prensa Latina) The opposition in Argentina’s Chamber of Deputies is preparing an offensive against the Executive branch when the chamber opens tomorrow for the session that will debate the government’s projects.

    The lower house has five draft bills on its agenda for discussion, but two are the priority for the Casa Rosada: the Central Bank Reform, which seeks to modify financial regulations to prohibit or severely restrict monetary issuance.

    And the second one of great importance to the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, is the Fiscal Innocence II bill, which stipulates expanding the simplified income tax regime to more taxpayers, and with it making Argentinians take the dollars that the executive branch so desperately needs out from under the mattress.

    However, the opposition coalition intends to introduce the debate on extending the Disability Emergency and the family debt relief bills, designed to alleviate the burden of debt on families. Currently, six million of the nearly 21 million people in debt are unable to pay off the debts they incurred to make ends meet.

    Also on the table are the SME Emergency measures, as well as the proposal to share the revenue from the liquid fuel tax. These will be discussed at the session scheduled for Wednesday.

    With that in mind, the opposition not only makes the occupants of the Balcarce 50 Palace uncomfortable and creates noise in the legislative agenda of La Libertad Avanza, but also puts to the test the “dialogue-oriented deputies” who collaborate with the ruling party, since they would be pressured by projects that have popular support.

    Bills to address the situation of the nearly 6 million people unable to pay their debts are piling up in the lower house. There are already almost 30 proposals, being pushed by virtually all opposition parties.

    While this proliferation of initiatives reflects the deep concern within the Argentine political sphere, it also presents a challenge for the opposition, which must reconcile and unify its diverse perspectives and proposals to present a single project that unites all factions and behind which everyone can rally. At least they have begun to discuss them.

    The Union for the Fatherland party has put forward a draft bill to extend the Disability Emergency until December 2027, and has garnered the signatures of leaders from various political blocs, including Defendamos Córdoba, Provincias Unidas, Innovación Federal, Frente de Izquierda de los Trabajadores, Encuentro Federal, and Coalición Cívica. Political observers believe that this initiative has a strong chance of passing given the widespread support it has received.

    Other projects on the agenda include the approval of the Free Trade Agreement between Mercosur and Singapore, which will facilitate trade and tariff exchange, and the Patent Law for Argentina’s accession to the international cooperation treaty on patents.

    Finally, there is the proposal to lower the VAT on cassava flour and the analysis of modifications regarding land and electoral systems.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    50
    ·
    7 hours ago

    Iran and Oman have released a joint statement, announcing they have reached a preliminary agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz

    Iran’s Foreign Ministry emphasizes this does not mean the Strait will be opened; it will remain fully closed until the U.S. naval blockade is lifted and the MoU terms are abided.

    Details of the Iran-Oman agreement have not yet been released, but according to preliminary information Iran has been given control over incoming maritime traffic and the right to impose service fees.

    • Middle East Spectator
  • AvocadoVapelung [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    62
    ·
    8 hours ago

    Cease and desist

    On 24 August 2026 cease and desist letters have been sent by X Corp. demanding a permanent takedown of Nitter instances and the project’s repository.

    nitter.net is offline and development has stopped for the time being. I’m seeking legal advice and won’t be commenting further on the specifics for now.

    Thank you to everyone who used, hosted, packaged, donated and contributed to Nitter over the past seven years.

    https://github.com/zedeus/nitter/issues/1442#issuecomment-5413651441

    • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      19
      ·
      edit-2
      4 hours ago

      Proposal to ban all twitter sources in the news-mega until a viable, reliable front-end exists again.

      Everyone should reasonably be able to verify sources and a lot of the sources from Twitter are questionable “open intelligence” propaganda or crank accounts anyway. Most nation state posting that’s of much significance gets reported on by news agencies in a short time frame after.

      No reason for any respectable person not to have alternatives like Mastodon, substack, or even lib-sky and we should push to kill giving Elon data to help further put us on government shit lists for reading too much of the wrong stuff.

      At the very least archive links (which I believe are broken as well by the sign-up requirement). I don’t want to suggest screenshots as that increases the burden on the servers and database over time for relatively little gain and anyone can post a doctored or faked screenshot.

    • There’s one in the UK called The World Transformed, and a few others. I guess they’re better than nothing but it’s not like a new internationale and you get a lot of libs being platformed (Zarah Sultana and Corbyn for instance) because they’re only as popular as what exists in the popular conscious of “the left” which is never going to appeal to me, the perfect communist.

  • smokeppb [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    56
    ·
    10 hours ago

    New York Crimes (archived) - U.S. Said to Be Returning Diplomats to Middle East Embassies

    Evacuated foreign service officers could begin heading back to their posts as early as this week, an internal document shows, suggesting Washington does not anticipate a renewal of full-scale conflict with Iran.

    Either this, or Trump is sending some diplomats to their deaths for the sake of another rug pull at the negotiating table. That would be funny.

    • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      4 hours ago

      Iran wasn’t going to bomb embassies anyway and the US has seen that the people of the Arab world are not going to rise up, overwhelm their local comprador government police and storm US embassies in solidarity with Iran which was probably the real fear. Iran hasn’t been relying on militia power but drone and missile power.

      On the upside this probably means nukes are off the table still as nuking a state full of Muslims would probably still carry a significant risk of their embassies being stormed by even Sunni groups.

      Probably means US for now is intent on cranking up economic sanctions and other limited measures that they feel won’t draw a harsh kinetic response.